Israel could mount pinpoint raids on Iran: analysts

[Nebor]

Not that this scenario would ever happen, but the Israeli 16s would own face.

As it turns out the F-16s that Iraq purchased aren't due for delivery for years. So they can monitor their airspace, but not defend\control it.

 

[Jhhnn]

Let's sum up Israeli threats in the words of Molly Ivins-

"All Hat, No Cattle."

Or the flip side-

"More Balls than Brains."

I don't think it'll be the latter.

 

[Nebor]

I say it again, the only future viable Israeli strategy is to become a technological asset to its less developed Arab Neighbors.

Do you really think that Israel's neighbors are going to trust technology\engineering from Israel after Stuxnet?

 

[Jhhnn]

As it turns out the F-16s that Iraq purchased aren't due for delivery for years. So they can monitor their airspace, but not defend\control it.

Which means the US is from nearby bases, or the Iraqis will make a deal with the Iranians to do so the second we leave...

 

[Nebor]

Which means the US is from nearby bases, or the Iraqis will make a deal with the Iranians to do so the second we leave...

There is no current agreement for the US to guard the Iraqi skies. Something about a bad taste in their mouths from previous US patrols in their skies.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Which means the US is from nearby bases, or the Iraqis will make a deal with the Iranians to do so the second we leave...

Iranians do not have the capability to defend their own airspace; let alone that of another country

 

[Lemon law]

If we are to assume Israel will ever bomb Iran in the two to three year future, we can divide up all possible scenarios into two basic groups.

(1) Scenario one. Israel, and all by its little lonesome, attacks Iran without any ally's knowledge of consent. Double unlikely considering the fact, Israel will have to overfly nations like Saudi Arabia or Iraq. And even then, the USA would be assumed complicit.

(2) More realistic scenario 2. Israel persuades real deal military powers to attack Iran on their behalf. A nation like the USA or England that have air craft carriers and can project force. Move into 300 miles range, and mount attacks 24/7. With no problem of conserving jet fuel for bomb and Missile loads.

But if we have scenario 2, why call it an Israeli attack?

 

[Nebor]

But if we have scenario 2, why call it an Israeli attack?

We won't. We rarely credit Israel with successful manipulation of our foreign policy.

 

[Lemon law]

Iranians do not have the capability to defend their own airspace; let alone that of another country

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Or so EK thinks. Iran usually plays its military capacity close to the vest, and why should Iran show its air to air missile and radar capacities when it does not have to?

Nor will any Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear capacity even remotely resemble the two Israeli past strikes against the nuclear capacity of Iraq and Syria. Both were accomplished by a single sorties of jets, with the full element of surprise on Israel's side. In out and done, one surface building a total wreck. And its one thing to be able to jam communications in a limited area, but in terms of dispersed Iranian nuclear sites, Israel would have to Jam an area 10x the size of Israel. And after one single Israeli strike, all surprise will be lost, and its likely the targeted target will be undamaged.

 

[Nebor]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Or so EK thinks. Iran usually plays its military capacity close to the vest, and why should Iran show its air to air missile and radar capacities when it does not have to?

Wat? They usually announce every new weapon with a ton of fanfare then have a hilariously public failed test, just like North Korea. Ever since the weapons embargo Iran began developing all their own weapons internally, so it's a source of great national pride every time they come up with something new.

And I think it's pretty well known that Iran can't keep their F-14 fleet in the air.

 

[EagleKeeper]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Or so EK thinks. Iran usually plays its military capacity close to the vest, and why should Iran show its air to air missile and radar capacities when it does not have to?

Nor will any Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear capacity even remotely resemble the two Israeli past strikes against the nuclear capacity of Iraq and Syria. Both were accomplished by a single sorties of jets, with the full element of surprise on Israel's side. In out and done, one surface building a total wreck. And its one thing to be able to jam communications in a limited area, but in terms of dispersed Iranian nuclear sites, Israel would have to Jam an area 10x the size of Israel. And after one single Israeli strike, all surprise will be lost, and its likely the targeted target will be undamaged.

Iranian capability is well known with the exception of the "fighters" that it has developed internally and never tested.

Radar:
The long range radar is the same the Russians sold to Syria.We have seen how well that worked.

Long range radar is also fixed; not mobile. Israel has those locations mapped out; expect ground sabotage if there is any concerns about spoofing.

Air Defense:
F14 - essentially grounded - no spare parts and require extensive maintenance to be kept flying. Only half the fleet was "operational" five years ago.

MIG-29 - last generation technology with 60's era radar and '70s weapons.

WWII piston aircraft - NUF said - Great distraction picture
Korean war jet aircraft. NUF said - useful against an isolated aircraft that may be crippled.

All Israel has to do is knock out a few radar sites and Iran will have to leave those corridors open or burn up aircraft by trying to fly CAP over them. After a month; Iran will have exhausted pilots and destroyed aircraft by chasing ghosts.

Israel will have wasted no logistics and actually get a front seat chance to view Iran's air defense plans.

Last time Iranian pilots were tested in air-air combat was in Iran-Iraq war.
If we were still flying F4s. I would put up our Guard pilots in a Phantom against what the Iranians would be able to put up.

Ground-Air missiles (GAM)
Requires short range radar hopefully supplemented by long range radar.
Without the long range radar, the short range has to be used to search/locate prior to targeting; That length of time will be deadly against a HARM

Ground-Air guns (GAG)
Limited range against low altitude; Can be optical - needs advance details of the flight path of the approaching aircraft. If radar controlled has the same issue as the missile battery.

Laser Targeting/firing
Pie in the ski claims

Iran has made many claims about newly developed technology, some for export.
Yet, what actually has been exported and tested/validated by other countries.

Once the search radars are down; Israel has the ability to launch a second pinpoint attack wave at her discretion. This would happen after evaluation of the results of first strike targets. Targeting radars for GAM or GAG would be again prime beef once they are activated.

===============================================
Now if LL has other information of the capabilities that Iran posses which I have overlooked to poke holes in my analysis; feel free to demonstrate/provide it.

Otherwise, again your knowledge of ME capabilities as relates to Israel, may have again been found serious lacking.