Islamic State becoming urban guerrilla threat, expert tells AFP

[norseamd]

The West must ramp up air strikes by 10 to 20 times to have any hope of disrupting the Islamic State group, which risks turning Europe into an urban guerrilla warzone, warned one of the world's leading counter-terrorism experts.

David Kilcullen, an Australian army veteran, became the senior counter-insurgency advisor to US General David Petraeus during the Iraq War and is considered a key architect of the "surge" strategy that helped turn the conflict around.

In an exclusive interview, he told AFP the Paris attacks showed the Islamic State group (IS) was morphing from a terrorist threat into a "structured organisation" like the IRA in Ireland or ETA in Spain during the 20th century.

"It's early days but I think we are starting to see the emergence of a fairly widespread paramilitary underground movement in Western Europe," he told AFP from Washington.

http://www.afp.com/en/news/islamic-state-becoming-urban-guerrilla-threat-expert-tells-afp

 

[Jaskalas]

David Kilcullen, an Australian army veteran, became the senior counter-insurgency advisor to US General David Petraeus during the Iraq War and is considered a key architect of the "surge" strategy that helped turn the conflict around.

Doesn't the very existence of ISIS invalidate everything that man worked for?
Not a very credible speaker.

And if anyone wants to stop ISIS they can look at Syria... and Russia, and join them in their effort to secure the region with local ground forces. Cause you know, Syrian and Iraqi militaries still exist.

Moreover, this news and advice seems to predate this week's airstrikes. Because ISIS is being decimated right now.

 

[gururu2]

Guerilla warfare only works if local provinces/towns/camps support or tolerate their presence. ISIS tactics won't endure the test of time in the same way that other rebel organizations have over decades.

 

[Art&Science]

Doesn't the very existence of ISIS invalidate everything that man worked for?
Not a very credible speaker.

And if anyone wants to stop ISIS they can look at Syria... and Russia, and join them in their effort to secure the region with local ground forces. Cause you know, Syrian and Iraqi militaries still exist.

Moreover, this news and advice seems to predate this week's airstrikes. Because ISIS is being decimated right now.

I don't know that it invalidates it. The surge was designed to defeat the terrorists and allow the legitimate Iraqi government to take control - this did happen. The Iraqi's sort of dropped the ball after Mr. Obama pulled out in 2011 (a decisions I agreed with).

 

[fskimospy]

Doesn't the very existence of ISIS invalidate everything that man worked for?
Not a very credible speaker.

And if anyone wants to stop ISIS they can look at Syria... and Russia, and join them in their effort to secure the region with local ground forces. Cause you know, Syrian and Iraqi militaries still exist.

Moreover, this news and advice seems to predate this week's airstrikes. Because ISIS is being decimated right now.

We have been working to secure the region with local ground forces for a very long time now. As I mentioned before, it seems that Russia has finally realized that ISIS is an important target for them and is following our lead.

To be clear though, before the airline bombing, Russia clearly couldn't have cared less about ISIS, that was just their propaganda that people were swallowing. Their actions speak much louder than RT does, haha.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

JV team is contained...no worries.

 

[1prophet]

I don't know that it invalidates it. The surge was designed to defeat the terrorists and allow the legitimate Iraqi government to take control - this did happen. The Iraqi's sort of dropped the ball after Mr. Obama pulled out in 2011 (a decisions I agreed with).

When Bush let them base their new constitution on Sharia not secular law, the ball being dropped was inevitable since it was American troops holding it up for them.

The United States has eased its opposition to an Islamic Iraqi state to help clinch a deal on a draft constitution before tonight's deadline. American diplomats backed religious conservatives who threatened to torpedo talks over the shape of the new Iraq unless Islam was a primary source of law. Secular and liberal groups were dismayed at the move, branding it a betrayal of Washington's promise to advocate equal rights in a free and tolerant society.


Stalemate over the role of Islam, among other issues, meant last week's deadline was extended for a week. Outstanding disputes could produce another cliffhanger tonight, triggering a further extension.


The Bush administration, keen to show the political process is on track, has waded into negotiations and pressured all sides to compromise.
Administration officials have suggested that the number of US troops could be reduced next year if Iraq makes political progress and enough Iraqi troops are trained to take on insurgents. But yesterday, a US general said the army was making "worst case" contingency plans to maintain troops at the current level for another four years.


In an interview with the Associated Press, General Peter Schoomaker said the army had planned troop rotations up to 2009 to ensure enough soldiers would be available. But actual deployments will be decided by commanders in Iraq, if conditions allow, he added.


There are currently 138,000 US troops in Iraq, including 25,000 marines. President Bush has repeatedly denied that the US intends to "cut and run", leaving Iraq to the insurgents. "Our troops know that they're fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere to protect their fellow Americans from a savage enemy," the president said yesterday in his weekly radio address.
Conservative Shias, dominant in the Iraqi government, had clashed with Kurds and other minorities who wanted Islam to be "a" rather than "the" main source of law.


According to Kurdish and Sunni negotiators, the US ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, proposed that Islam be named "a primary source" and supported a wording which would give clerics authority in civil matters such as divorce, marriage and inheritance.


If approved, critics say that the proposals would erode women's rights and other freedoms enshrined under existing laws. "We understand the Americans have sided with the Shias. It's shocking. It doesn't fit with American values," an unnamed Kurdish negotiator told Reuters. "They have spent so much blood and money here, only to back the creation of an Islamist state."


Dozens of women gathered in central Baghdad yesterday to protest against what the organiser, Yanar Mohammad, feared would be a "fascist, nationalist and Islamist" constitution. "We are fighting to avoid becoming second class citizens," she said.

 

[Indus]

I don't know that it invalidates it. The surge was designed to defeat the terrorists and allow the legitimate Iraqi government to take control - this did happen. The Iraqi's sort of dropped the ball after Mr. Obama pulled out in 2011 (a decisions I agreed with).

I think the problem is not with Obama or Iraqi's dropping the ball. The problem is with Iraq not wanting to be Iraq. It's just a line on paper really. Would be much better if we had divided the country into 3 or not gone there in the first place.