Is/will the covid crisis be a bigger national crisis than 9/11 for the United States?

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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
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So 170 to 200k best case, 1.7million plus worst. Congrats on finally getting what I said which is decidedly NOT what you originally posted.

But OK you now get an honorary degree in the medical sciences. You win the internet.

I linked that because you repeatedly cited the CDC's estimate of a 60-80% infection rate as if that was the actual projection, when in fact it is a cautionary projection based on doing nothing. According to the CDC, these worse case projections are not going to happen since we are already doing the things that the projection is based on us not doing.

As to your crack about having a degree in "medical sciences," I fail to see how I'm implicitly making such a claim any more so than those who are arguing for a higher number.

It's weak. The truth is if you agree with someone's opinion, you won't accuse them of assuming expertise they don't have. That claim is reserved for the people you disagree with, right? It must be so since everyone I'm arguing with here has an opinion on this topic just like I do but you aren't accusing anyone else of claiming to be an expert.
 

R0H1T

Platinum Member
Jan 12, 2013
2,582
162
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I’m pretty sure that Coronavirus is already this country’s biggest challenge since World War II, with the possibility of a Great Depression afterwards.
I'm pretty sure it's worse than that, with the WW II you could at least escape the Great Depression putting the entire nation towards one goal & of course the arms & munitions produced went a long way overcoming that. Here you have to do the exact opposite, at least till the time there's' a cure or vaccine. In modern human history there really is no parallel to the kind of destruction this pandemic can have on the entire globe!
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,636
8,522
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So 170 to 200k best case, 1.7million plus worst. Congrats on finally getting what I said which is decidedly NOT what you originally posted.

But OK you now get an honorary degree in the medical sciences. You win the internet.

I sympathise with your more pessimistic-position more than with woolfe's, but I do think you are being unnecessarily aggressive about it! It's not an argument where anyone is being obviously crazy-wrong.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
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I'm not saying expertise means nothing, but for something like this it's not as vastly different from an educated layman's guess as would be the case for, say, climate science.

I'm just watching the numbers and worrying. US deaths-per-day continues to go up with each passing day. Well over 700 now. New infection cases also keep going up, though that's going to be dirty-data because it depends on the amount of testing. Deaths seems a slightly more objective metric.

As a genuine question - not being rhetorical or trying to make a point - at what point are the existing social-distancing efforts expected to produce a slowing of the spread? When would one hope to see the new daily cases start being _less_ than the figure for the previous day.

That last question is a good one, and no one knows the answer. We've seen the curve flattened in certain states and certain countries, but of course we don't know if there will be a resurgence.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,986
3,320
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I'm not saying expertise means nothing, but for something like this it's not as vastly different from an educated layman's guess as would be the case for, say, climate science.

I'm just watching the numbers and worrying. US deaths-per-day continues to go up with each passing day. Well over 700 now. New infection cases also keep going up, though that's going to be dirty-data because it depends on the amount of testing. Deaths seems a slightly more objective metric.

As a genuine question - not being rhetorical or trying to make a point - at what point are the existing social-distancing efforts expected to produce a slowing of the spread? When would one hope to see the new daily cases start being _less_ than the figure for the previous day.
The way I heard it explained as an answer to your question - the incubation period is supposedly 14 days.
This up coming week should see a rush on hospitals and a drastic increase in cases!
Then we wait 14 more days and supposedly the numbers should start slowly falling! Nothing as fast as Trump in stating!
Then we will have another ruch for the hospitals only supposedly a smaller rush....and so forth and so on!
So to be blunt less and less shit hits the fan!!
mind that was from somrbody educated in these things thus it was an educated guess......It was one of Dr Fauci`s peeps....I think it was a woman!!
 

renz20003

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2011
2,714
634
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more people are gonna die and it will change our society more.
But unless a republican president can find some way to hang the flag on it and shout horse shit about patriotism, it won't "matter" as much.
Thats why the fat orange rapist keeps saying we're at war with the sovereign nation of Corona and he's a war time president.

Let’s not forget 4 Star general mypillow.com
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
136
I have another question. When we finally do get a vaccine, will the anti-vaxxers refuse to get it?
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
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I linked that because you repeatedly cited the CDC's estimate of a 60-80% infection rate as if that was the actual projection, when in fact it is a cautionary projection based on doing nothing. According to the CDC, these worse case projections are not going to happen since we are already doing the things that the projection is based on us not doing.

As to your crack about having a degree in "medical sciences," I fail to see how I'm implicitly making such a claim any more so than those who are arguing for a higher number.

It's weak. The truth is if you agree with someone's opinion, you won't accuse them of assuming expertise they don't have. That claim is reserved for the people you disagree with, right? It must be so since everyone I'm arguing with here has an opinion on this topic just like I do but you aren't accusing anyone else of claiming to be an expert.

That is the CDC estimate, whether you like it or not. But let's use Lawlers estimate far less infected and a conservative estimate of 480,000 dead.

Now how does that compare to 9/11?
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,986
3,320
126
I have another question. When we finally do get a vaccine, will the anti-vaxxers refuse to get it?
well you know seeing as how a few people have been arrested for having church services with large crowds.....
I would bet that word anti vaxxer will not matter! In fact if it get bad enough they really would have to do something that goes against some constitutional norms for the safety of the country!
Lets hope that does not happen!! that was my 2 cents worth!!
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
I sympathise with your more pessimistic-position more than with woolfe's, but I do think you are being unnecessarily aggressive about it! It's not an argument where anyone is being obviously crazy-wrong.

Perhaps you are right but I've been reading rosy projections and numbers pulled out of a hat. My tolerance is admittedly limited.
 
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Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
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I have another question. When we finally do get a vaccine, will the anti-vaxxers refuse to get it?

A vaccine is a vaccine so yeah I expect a refusal. This brings up the right of refusal if something really nasty comes down the road. Take the mortality and bump it to 75% and I suspect that force might be used.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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You don't think they'll have a vaccine before it infects half the world? Hmm. We'll see.

According to the CDC, about 1/3 of the world population was infected in the 1918 pandemic & people get around a lot more today. Covid19 may be more contagious than the flu in general but it's hard to tell at this point. It is, at any rate, highly contagious & readily transmitted even by asymptomatic cases. It's already everywhere in this country or very nearby. Being new to humanity, most people's immune systems don't recognize it as a problem until it's a big one.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
136
A vaccine is a vaccine so yeah I expect a refusal. This brings up the right of refusal if something really nasty comes down the road. Take the mortality and bump it to 75% and I suspect that force might be used.

So we may see a decrease in our population of batshits in this country? I guess there's a silver lining even in a plague.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,231
5,806
126
The problem is you are looking ahead. This crisis has only just begun, and much of the pain we suffer will only exist due to our response.

For example, we currently have... 3k dead?
Swine Flu.
CDC estimates that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths

Did we have a bigger national crisis in 2009-2010, than September 11th? No.

Raw numbers of dead, by themselves, do not make a crisis. So it is a meaningless milestone, especially as we expect it to grow FAR bigger in the coming weeks and months. The impact of the virus is expected to be big, but our reaction is already FAR bigger than anything since WW2 / Great Depression. We have thrown ourselves into this situation and it's (arguably) already worse than anything in living memory.

Approx 10ish% of Corona-19 Cases require Hospitilization. If there were 60million Corona-19 infected people, you would have some 6million Patients.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
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That is the CDC estimate, whether you like it or not. But let's use Lawlers estimate far less infected and a conservative estimate of 480,000 dead.

Now how does that compare to 9/11?

We will obviously have more American deaths from this virus even with Fauchi's 100-200K estimate. We already have more deaths than died in Afghanistan. But all the other deaths matter too, and there may have been over a million between those two countries.

That's just if we compared death tolls. Each event has secondary consequences. For the virus, there are economic and political consequences. There were a whole slew of secondary consequences for 9/11 as well. It's kind of hard to compare to the two.
 

zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,255
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What about global impact? The first world is going tt hurt but how are undeveloped nations going to fare?
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
9/11 was a huge deal because it shocked us that such a thing could happen in this country. it was made into an even bigger deal for the purposes of Neocon geopolitical ambitions. The invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq were entirely optional. It's all the other efforts that actually made us safer. None of that is in any way comparable to what covid19 reveals about our healthcare & economic systems.

Excellent article with good links-

Crises like these — whether it’s a crisis of political legitimacy, or a pandemic that demands response, or some kind of major external war that crops up out of nowhere — the chances are good that whatever snaps under the pressure of that crisis was probably straining already, was probably barely chugging along already. There’s some kind of deep problem that a crisis is going to expose, bring to the fore, and then break very dramatically for everybody to see.

We see the crisis and we see the break — and we equate the two. We’re narrative creatures. That’s how we understand the world. We understand things as a story with a climax, and the break has to be the climax. It’s very hard for us to turn a more analytical eye and see the collection of very small things that lead up to a systemic break. It’s just difficult. But these disasters don’t create these trends so much as they supercharge them.

 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
136
What about global impact? The first world is going tt hurt but how are undeveloped nations going to fare?

Probably not very well. I'm guessing that low numbers we're seeing from Africa right now are unreliable as they have very little testing there.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
Possibly. 9/11 resulted in two decades of war, an even more unstable Middle East, a more intrusive federal government and irreversible changes to air travel and the formation of a new federal agency.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
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We will obviously have more American deaths from this virus even with Fauchi's 100-200K estimate. We already have more deaths than died in Afghanistan. But all the other deaths matter too, and there may have been over a million between those two countries.

That's just if we compared death tolls. Each event has secondary consequences. For the virus, there are economic and political consequences. There were a whole slew of secondary consequences for 9/11 as well. It's kind of hard to compare to the two.
I agree but no one cared enough about those lives to have a good look at what happened and why which I think is a disgrace.

I can't see a way clear through this though. I have family that own small businesses and some will not make it which places a lot of stress on them and that is multiplied by countless others. In some sense this is between a recession and depression or will be. Also apologies for being so snippy. That wasn't right.
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,287
17,079
136
KFC is donating a million chickens, or a million pieces of chicken, to those in need across America.
Meanwhile Donald is fucking us up the ass.
 

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,409
1,655
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Three weeks ago I would have said that 9/11 was a bigger crisis but now I’m not so sure.

Oh its gonna be far more fundamental to the internal workings of the US than 9/11.

9/11 had a fairly easy solution for youse Americans - blame someone far away and then go bomb them. Didn't matter if you didn't get the right country (Saudi Arabia), anywhere will do as long as it looked alright (and to be fair, the Taliban were a shower of c**ts anyway).


In contrast, the fallout of this will strongly recommend public owned and funded healthcare for all as the best means of coordinating and enabling a coherent response across the US.

Is the American psyche ready for that? I don't think so. Politics will likely get even more polarised and poisonous than it is now. The damage the likes of Faux News and Agent Orange have done spewing lies has yet to be fully scoped out, but its substantial.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
I have another question. When we finally do get a vaccine, will the anti-vaxxers refuse to get it?
Yes, they are going to be a huge problem when a vaccine is available, the same as the selfish people who refuse to shelter in place and the ones fleeing hot spots for rural areas.