Is tripoli going to be a bloodbath?

[yllus]

Handy map of Tripoli's regions and districts for those watching the battle inch forwards (or backwards):

 

[mizzou]

Al jazeera is reporting that Tripoli is in the "final push" of being "liberated"

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/08/201182193129278233.html

 

[randomrogue]

Since the Government is starting to release huge casualty numbers, probably in the hopes that Nato will stop bombing and give them a chance, it's probably getting close.

 

[Lemon law]

I don't think its going to be long now, Qaddafi has hired a lot of mercenaries and he is running out of money to pay them. The Rebels already control most of the countries oil, and can effectively prevent Qaddafi from buying new arms as the rebels and now closing in
on Tripoli, Qaddafi's last strong hold. And just like any way, when the losing side runs out of arms and resources, the final end is not far away.

Our problem is in the rebels themselves and what happens when they win. We know part of them are simply ex-Qaddafi generals who joined the other side, patriotic villagers
who hate Qaddafi, and to some extent a large and unpredictable mix. We may hope a better democracy will arise, but no one seems to be planning that far ahead. But if a new and younger clone of Qaddafi comes to power, what will be accomplished by all the fighting? In a better world a working Egyptian democracy would be up and running, but funding for the Re building of Libya could be made contingent on such a democracy.

 

[mizzou]

I don't think its going to be long now, Qaddafi has hired a lot of mercenaries and he is running out of money to pay them. The Rebels already control most of the countries oil, and can effectively prevent Qaddafi from buying new arms as the rebels and now closing in
on Tripoli, Qaddafi's last strong hold. And just like any way, when the losing side runs out of arms and resources, the final end is not far away.

Our problem is in the rebels themselves and what happens when they win. We know part of them are simply ex-Qaddafi generals who joined the other side, patriotic villagers
who hate Qaddafi, and to some extent a large and unpredictable mix. We may hope a better democracy will arise, but no one seems to be planning that far ahead. But if a new and younger clone of Qaddafi comes to power, what will be accomplished by all the fighting? In a better world a working Egyptian democracy would be up and running, but funding for the Re building of Libya could be made contingent on such a democracy.

they need a strong leader to pull them together, and since there is none at all they will be forced to do elections but without central control they will factionalize and could be mired in economic waste

 

[Pocatello]

It's going to take Libya a long time to recover from this civil war. Dictators every where are the same, they rather turn their countries into dust rather than surrendering their power.

 

[PrayForDeath]

Looks like Gaddafi will be stepping down in the next 24 hours. They already captured his son, and his armed forces are surrendering (including his personal guard).

Apparently NATO has been bombing the capital very aggressively in the past 12 hours which enabled the rebels to advanced to the center of the capital:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14608807

 

[Lemon law]

It's going to take Libya a long time to recover from this civil war. Dictators every where are the same, they rather turn their countries into dust rather than surrendering their power.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Its hard to disagree with Pocatello, but that seems to be the new Arab Spring doctrine, Arab dictators who use extreme violence to repress the freedom of expression of their own people, are simply going to end up as toast. Mubarak tried it, his army balked, he tried to stay too long, and now he is on trial by his own people. Qaddafi is in the same position, the bulk of his army joined the rebels, and if can't find some nation to give him asylum, he and all his family may not live long enough to stand trail. As my best guess, Assad in Syria will be the next to go, right after Qaddafi falls, and for the same reason, any dictator who uses violence against his own people can't stand by new Arab Spring standards. It just is no longer Kosher. Salem in Yemen is in the same boat, he may never make it back into Yemen. Yet as exceptions, King Abdullah of Jordon will probably survive, as he got out in front of the protests and refused to play the violence card. And the same can probably said for the King of Morocco. Iran has already seen one earlier dose of the Arab spring, and with the Mullah's alienating everyone, they could get the old heave ho at the same speed of the Shah. Saudi Arabia is unaffected yet, but their days may be numbered.

But its still an unknown work in progress, if the ideas of the Arab spring transfer national wealth from the very rich to the average man on the street, Arab economies may enjoy a new rebirth of national prosparity.
to the average man

 

[mizzou]

someone just tweeted Ghadaffi was killed by rebels??

 

[epidemis]

I hope they have a solid post-gadaffi plan in place. We have a shot of influencing a democratic development in the region, but we need to supplement the military support with trade.

 

[Darwin333]

Given that the rebels have no real discipline, command structure, communication or tactics, they're basically a mob with newfound guns.

Say what you will about Gaddaffi, he knew how to disarm a populace. He has the only large quantity of trained soldiers in town. NATO can destroy tanks and AA emplacements, but the individuals on the ground are left to the rebels, and they will get slaughtered if the city continues to support Gaddaffi.

"Trained soldiers" of the same populace of those they are fighting become war weary much faster than those they are fighting against.

The "rebels" will win this fight in the end. All thats left for Gaddaffi is the crying, he is done.

 

[PieIsAwesome]

Why is Daffy still only a colonel?

 

[XX55XX]

In the coming weeks, there will be much bickering between the rebels on who rules Libya. And a strongman emerges from the shadows, claiming to show Libyans the way... only to lead them back to the spectre of authoritarianism that Libyans had rejected.

Or worse still, the NTC is unable to establish its writ, and the country descends into chaos, where tribalism and sectarianism rule the day.

 

[Doppel]

State television is still on (watching fox now and geraldo asked). Gadhafi is either arrested or killed in the next day or loses all power and is holed up in his house, that's my guess. I think things will be over extremely soon now.

I'd say that it would probably be best if the rebels capture him and do NOT give him to the international criminal court, which will go through years of trials and bullsh*t. To make an example to the other world thugs about people owning your sh*t as final payback the rebels ought to keep him, although if they do and hang him up on his state TV, for example, it will make for a "rough" presentation of the new country's leadership.

 

[BarneyFife]

State television is still on (watching fox now and geraldo asked). Gadhafi is either arrested or killed in the next day or loses all power and is holed up in his house, that's my guess. I think things will be over extremely soon now.

I'd say that it would probably be best if the rebels capture him and do NOT give him to the international criminal court, which will go through years of trials and bullsh*t. To make an example to the other world thugs about people owning your sh*t as final payback the rebels ought to keep him, although if they do and hang him up on his state TV, for example, it will make for a "rough" presentation of the new country's leadership.

What makes you think the rebels are any better? People like Ghadafi and Saddam Hussein kept the country in check because Arabs/Libyans can't handle democracy or freedom. They all want you to follow the sect of Islam and if you don't follow it they will kill you. These people don't understand the words share, compromise, teamwork. For all the shit we complain about all day in here, at least we aren't the Arabs. Talk about a fucked up group of people.

 

[Doppel]

What makes you think the rebels are any better? People like Ghadafi and Saddam Hussein kept the country in check because Arabs/Libyans can't handle democracy or freedom. They all want you to follow the sect of Islam and if you don't follow it they will kill you. These people don't understand the words share, compromise, teamwork. For all the shit we complain about all day in here, at least we aren't the Arabs. Talk about a fucked up group of people.

They may not be better, nobody really knows except that Gadhafi IS a scumbag. How these people are is anybody's guess. I'm just in the end glad I don't live in one of these many, many sh*ty countries all throughout the world.

 

[Lemon law]

Europe may have been a shitty region long ago, and the same can said of many other nations, but times and people change for the better----or sadly sometimes for the worse.

 

[Doppel]

Nothing happening now, fox is back onto casey antohny briefly and cnn looping the same boring vid with a bmw in the background and interviewing people to rehash the same stuff.

 

[BarneyFife]

Well my prediction is billions sent to Libya for rebuilding by the US govt.

 

[Rastus]

Well my prediction is billions sent to Libya for rebuilding by the US govt.

Yep. They will be given a short amount of time to try to set up a stable government, then NATO or the UN will step in to run the country on the US's dime and Europe will get the oil. Think of it as a bailout to Europe.

 

[Lemon law]

The latest link I have comes from Yahoo news,

http://news.yahoo.com/tripoli-falls-libyan-rebels-015336671.html

In short Qaddafi is officially over thrown.

Buts its dated Sunday night, and its already morning in Libya. Now the Monday morning question is how events will move from here?

Giving Qaddafi the ole heave ho has been a six month work in progress, but that in itself will not solve a single Libyan question.

But unless my guess is wrong, tomorrow's events will be more significant.

 

[JSt0rm]

damn obama did it against the wishes of the republicans. Where is pj now? How can a single group of people with so much power be wrong so many times?

 

[PrayForDeath]

What makes you think the rebels are any better? People like Ghadafi and Saddam Hussein kept the country in check because Arabs/Libyans can't handle democracy or freedom. They all want you to follow the sect of Islam and if you don't follow it they will kill you. These people don't understand the words share, compromise, teamwork. For all the shit we complain about all day in here, at least we aren't the Arabs. Talk about a fucked up group of people.

And you know this how? That's as narrow-minded as one could possibly get when it comes to having an opinion about other cultures. Just because they're different doesn't mean they're wrong.

I'm Syrian, I am currently in Damascus, and none of what you said is true. I've lived in both the states and Canada, and I can assure you that people here value "sharing, compromise, and teamwork" just as much as they do in the west.

 

[Double Trouble]

Good for the people of Libya, finally to be rid of "frizzy-head". Now we'll see what shows up to take over the power void, hopefully something good and not the hardcore islamo-wackjobs.

 

[BarneyFife]

And you know this how? That's as narrow-minded as one could possibly get when it comes to having an opinion about other cultures. Just because they're different doesn't mean they're wrong.

I'm Syrian, I am currently in Damascus, and none of what you said is true. I've lived in both the states and Canada, and I can assure you that people here value "sharing, compromise, and teamwork" just as much as they do in the west.

I know a few Syrians and you guys are some of the most stubborn, hard headed people I ever met.