Is there a Federal Deficit?

Amplifier

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Dec 25, 2004
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Let's push back the frontiers of ignorance about the federal deficit. To simplify things, I'll use round numbers that are fairly close to the actual numbers.

The nation's 2005 gross domestic product (GDP), what the American people produced, totaled $13 trillion. The federal government consumed $2.4 trillion, but it only received $2 trillion in tax revenues, leaving us with what's said to be a $.4 trillion budget deficit.

By the way, it's sheer constitutional ignorance to say that President Bush spends or lowers taxes. Article I, Sections 7 and 8, of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress authority to spend and tax. The president only has veto power that Congress can override.

Getting back to deficits, my question to you is this: Is there truly a deficit? The short answer is yes, but only in an accounting sense -- not in any meaningful economic sense. Let's look at it. If Congress spends $2.4 trillion but only takes in $2 trillion in taxes, who makes up that $.4 trillion shortfall that we call the budget deficit? Neither the Tooth Fairy, Santa nor the Easter Bunny makes up the difference between what's spent in 2005 and what's taxed in 2005.

Some might be tempted to answer that it's future generations who will pay. That's untrue. If the federal government consumes $2.4 trillion of what Americans produced in 2005, it must find ways to force us to spend $2.4 trillion less privately in 2005. In other words, the federal government can't spend today what's going to be produced in the future.

One method to force us to spend less privately is through taxation, but that's not the only way. Another way is to enter the bond market. Government borrowing drives the interest rate to a level that it otherwise wouldn't be without government borrowing. That higher interest puts the squeeze on private investment in homes and businesses, thereby forcing us to spend less privately.
Another way to force us to spend less privately is to inflate the currency. Theoretically, Congress can consume what we produce without enacting a single tax law; they could simply print money. The rising prices, which would curtail our real spending, would act as a tax. Of course, an important side effect of doing so would be economic havoc.

Some Americans have called for a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution as a method to rein in a prolific Congress. A balanced budget is no panacea. For example, suppose Congress spent $6 trillion and taxed us $6 trillion. We'd have a balanced budget, but we'd be far freer with today's unbalanced budget. The fact of business is that the true measure of the impact of government on our lives is not the taxes we pay but the level of spending.

The founders of our nation would be horrified by today's level of American servitude to their government. From 1787 to the Roaring '20s, federal government spending, as a percentage of GDP, never exceeded 4 percent, except in wartime, compared to today's 20 percent.

The average taxpayer, depending on the state in which he lives, works from Jan. 1 to May 3 to pay federal, state and local taxes. That means someone else decides how four months' worth of the fruits of the average taxpayer's labor will be spent. The taxpayer is forcibly used to serve the purposes of others -- whether it's farm or business handouts, food stamps or other government programs where the earnings of one American are taken and given to another.

This situation differs only in degree, but not in kind, from slavery. After all, a working description of slavery is the process where one person is forcibly used to serve the purposes of another. The difference is a slave has no rights to what he produces each year, instead of just four months.

I like the article because it points out the difference between an accounting debt and an economic debt. Which most posters don't consider before looking at a chart, thinking for no more than a few seconds, and crying foul just because the numbers are in the red.

Dr Williams does take the time to point out that the problem isn't the debt, but the spending. A 'balanced budget' where congress spends 2.4 Billion dollars is worse than an unbalanced budget that spends significantly less.

To supplement his point. If the deficit were 1 trillion dollars per year, but we only spent 1.2 trillion, we would be in better shape economically.
 

chowderhead

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Dec 7, 1999
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GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.
 

Amplifier

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Dec 25, 2004
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Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

You didn't even read that article.
 

chowderhead

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Dec 7, 1999
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Originally posted by: Amplifier
Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

You didn't even read that article.

I read the article. It advocated less government spending. Fine. I agree. I said looking at this President and this Republican Congress and past history, that it's not likely to happen.

You went further than the professor by saying adding 1 trillion dollars to the national debt is better than 400 billion if we cut spending by 1.2 trillion. I welcome you to board the tram and exit fantasyland if you think that will happen. Having the government borrowing an extra 1 trillion dollars would probably cause a large spike in interest rates plus on the negative effects with the cuts to hospitals, old peopl e, military etc. Spending is a problem but so is revenue.

Edit: let's not forget that the interest to service this debt (adding up all the deficits) is close to 400 billion dollars a year. If you don't that money has any :meaningful economic sense," then yeah, deficits don't matter.
 

Amplifier

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Dec 25, 2004
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Originally posted by: chowderhead
Originally posted by: Amplifier
Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

You didn't even read that article.

I read the article. It advocated less government spending. Fine. I agree. I said looking at this President and this Republican Congress and past history, that it's not likely to happen.

You went further than the professor by saying adding 1 trillion dollars to the national debt is better than 400 billion if we cut spending by 1.2 trillion. I welcome you to board the tram and exit fantasyland if you think that will happen. Having the government borrowing an extra 1.2 trillion dollars would probably cause a large spike in interest rates plus on the negative effects with the cuts to hospitals, old people, military etc. Spending is a problem but so is revenue.

What costs more: A $1,000,000 house that's paid for in cash. Or a $500,000 house that has a mortgage of $400,000 @ 4.75%.
 

1EZduzit

Lifer
Feb 4, 2002
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Originally posted by: Amplifier
Is there a Federal Deficit?

Does a bear crap ion the woods?

Back in Sept of 2000 we actually had balanced the budget for a short while and the debt clock ran backwards.

National Debt Clock stops, despite trillions of dollars of red ink

Senior economic advisers to Texas Governor and Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush agree with the principle of paying down the debt but have not committed to a specific date for eliminating it.

Yeah, right. Debts don't matter, unless of course someone isn't paying you what they owe you??
 

chowderhead

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Dec 7, 1999
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I am saying in the real world - in this world, you would have to compare a million dollar house paid with cash vs. a million dollar house paid with an interest-only ARM. Each year, you purchase bigger and more expensive houses while at the same time, your income/revenues increases or decreases.
This exercise is great in theory but show me someone in power who is advocating the kinds of spending cuts and debt loads you are talking about.
 

Amplifier

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Dec 25, 2004
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Originally posted by: chowderhead
I am saying in the real world - in this world, you would have to compare a million dollar house paid with cash vs. a million dollar house paid with an interest-only ARM. Each year, you purchase bigger and more expensive houses while at the same time, your income/revenues increases or decreases.
This exercise is great in theory but show me someone in power who is advocating the kinds of spending cuts and debt loads you are talking about.

As much as I'm for limited government I am not advocating cuts in this thread. I'm pointing out that the real enemy of our economy is not a deficit, but overspending. Whether we float this spending with bonds or cash is almost irrelevant economically.
 

ElFenix

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Mar 20, 2000
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Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

revenue is up under the bush tax plan.
 

Ldir

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Jul 23, 2003
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Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

revenue is up under the bush tax plan.

Revenue is almost always up. America is growing. The economy is growing. The question is how much more would revenue be up if we did not have the tax cuts?
 

Amplifier

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Dec 25, 2004
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Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

The point of the article is that revenue is very much a secondary issue to spending. How much money would we have spent on the government last year if we paid .4 trillion less in taxes? 2.4 trillion. And if we paid .4 trillion more in taxes? Still 2.4 trillion.

Originally posted by: Ldir
Originally posted by: Amplifier
Is there a Federal Deficit?

We are borrowing money. Of course there is a federal deficit.

Read the article.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
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Originally posted by: Amplifier
Originally posted by: chowderhead
I am saying in the real world - in this world, you would have to compare a million dollar house paid with cash vs. a million dollar house paid with an interest-only ARM. Each year, you purchase bigger and more expensive houses while at the same time, your income/revenues increases or decreases.
This exercise is great in theory but show me someone in power who is advocating the kinds of spending cuts and debt loads you are talking about.

As much as I'm for limited government I am not advocating cuts in this thread. I'm pointing out that the real enemy of our economy is not a deficit, but overspending. Whether we float this spending with bonds or cash is almost irrelevant economically.
You shouldn't need a professor to tell you that overspending will create a deficit.
 

Amplifier

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Dec 25, 2004
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Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Originally posted by: Amplifier
Originally posted by: chowderhead
I am saying in the real world - in this world, you would have to compare a million dollar house paid with cash vs. a million dollar house paid with an interest-only ARM. Each year, you purchase bigger and more expensive houses while at the same time, your income/revenues increases or decreases.
This exercise is great in theory but show me someone in power who is advocating the kinds of spending cuts and debt loads you are talking about.

As much as I'm for limited government I am not advocating cuts in this thread. I'm pointing out that the real enemy of our economy is not a deficit, but overspending. Whether we float this spending with bonds or cash is almost irrelevant economically.
You shouldn't need a professor to tell you that overspending will create a deficit.

Can you read the article.

 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
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No wonder it is titled "A Minority Opinion" since the uber majority knows when you spend more than you take in its a deficit. And that if you borrow money to pay for your deficit you will have to pay it back.
What an idiot. The guy who wrote this is a uber moron.
As are people who read this with NO idea of economics and believe it because of its "truthiness"
 

ElFenix

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Mar 20, 2000
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Originally posted by: Ldir
Revenue is almost always up. America is growing. The economy is growing. The question is how much more would revenue be up if we did not have the tax cuts?

or would it have gone up less? the way the taxes were cut is pro-growth, and no serious argument can be made against that.

there are two ways the taxes could have provided increased revenues. first, in the short run, if the tax scheme change encouraged cashing out investments earlier, thereby making up the shortfall of per transaction taxes by sheer volume.

the second way is more subtle. lowering the tax rate effectively increases the return for investment dollars and also increases the liquidity of investment dollars. so, people switch from consumption to investment. there are more investment dollars, and less incentive to keep the investment dollars in slightly underperforming investments. this drives the economy forward in the long run in all the ways that investments typically do. that provides more jobs, better paying jobs, etc., which make up any prior 'loss' on the front end by lowering the rates for investment taxes.

the way the economy has boomed along since the tax scheme change is evidence that the change had the desired effect. of course, the economy is extremely complex and it is hard to narrow down one factor, but the tendency of the tax changes is growth. so, saying america 'is growing' and the 'economy is growing' is somewhat using the effect to try to disprove the cause. you can't say that the economy would be up as much or more if the tax scheme weren't changed.
 

ElFenix

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Originally posted by: techs
No wonder it is titled "A Minority Opinion" since the uber majority knows when you spend more than you take in its a deficit. And that if you borrow money to pay for your deficit you will have to pay it back.
What an idiot. The guy who wrote this is a uber moron.
As are people who read this with NO idea of economics and believe it because of its "truthiness"

those are accounting functions. not economic functions. the government distorts the economy by its sheer size and presence. you can't analyze it the same way you would a small business opening up a small shop with plenty of competitors. the argument this person is putting forth is that the market distortions make the deficit illusory and that, in economic terms, there is no deficit. while i haven't thought about it hard enough to come to some sense of if he is right or not, i see what his argument is saying, which is more than i can say for most people in this thread.

GMU has 2 nobel prize winners in their department of economics. there aren't morons there.
 

Darkhawk28

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Dec 22, 2000
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Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: Ldir
Revenue is almost always up. America is growing. The economy is growing. The question is how much more would revenue be up if we did not have the tax cuts?

the way the taxes were cut is pro-growth, and no serious argument can be made against that.

Seems like an argument by compotent people can be made and has been....

"The Boom That Wasn't"

Full Text
 

MonkeyK

Golden Member
May 27, 2001
1,396
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Some might be tempted to answer that it's future generations who will pay. That's untrue. If the federal government consumes $2.4 trillion of what Americans produced in 2005, it must find ways to force us to spend $2.4 trillion less privately in 2005. In other words, the federal government can't spend today what's going to be produced in the future.

This is where I don't understand the article. It looks like the author is trying to say there is no deficit by definition. Either that or setting an assumption for an argument that there is no deficit.
 

imported_Tango

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Mar 8, 2005
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I'm sorry, but this guy either has no clue, or has a very specific agenda:

The disticntion between accounting terms and economic temrs is right. If you borrow a lot but use those funds for wise and productive investments then it's worth doing it, and you should not be concerned by deficit. But, this means NOT that deficit and debt don't mean anything. They do. You must understand if there is a correct proportion between your deficit and the growth directly coming from this borrowing. Investements in education and infrastructures during the last three decades were the key behind the Korean economic miracle for example. Same thing could be said about the so called "green revolution" in India. You borrow now because you know that a current deficit is needed in order to achieve over-proportionally great growth in the future. The concerns about the US are generated by the amount of deficit generated by investments not leading to fututre growth. Some examples might be military spending and loans used to sustain present consumption. Think it in these terms: imagine a friend of yours is coming and asking you 100k dollars to finance his small business. Would you provide these money? Well, the first thing you would ask him is most likely what he needs these money for. He could buy a new machine to raise output. If he is currently unable to meet demand, and you think this demand is here to stay, then you probably wouldn't have a problem giving him the money. But what if he says he needs the money to decorate his office? Then this loan is not really propelling any future growth and you might ask if it is wise to issue debt to buy something that will not help him pay you back.

If you look at the US figures, the problem is that there is a disproportion between the deficit and growth, so one might question what this deficit is being used for.

Then he says that it is not true that having a deficit now doesn't burden fture generations. This is also untrue. Borrowing now means asking future generations to adopt COMPARATIVELY lower consumption. It means giving future generations harsher interest rates when issuing bonds, and less investment flexibility. There's no way around it: if you issue debt now, the next one will need an higher interest rate to accomodate increased risks. Fixed income traders do their math quickly.

He is right about the fact that a couple of solutions to this deficit problem would be increase interest rates or depreciate the currency. But that's basically saying you need to reverse the current monetary policy that lead to the situation you are facing now. I know that the FED would love to depreciate the dollar significantly, while this solution is not considered viable by the government. He agree that increasing money supply to generate an inflation-tax is silly. By the way: for the last 20 years inflation has been the number one concern at the FED and everybody knows they are effectively targeting a 1% inflation rate.

Then you have the crazy closing line:
This situation differs only in degree, but not in kind, from slavery. After all, a working description of slavery is the process where one person is forcibly used to serve the purposes of another. The difference is a slave has no rights to what he produces each year, instead of just four months.

This is so silly. Slaves gave uptheir right on what they were producing, but they ALSO were not given access to roads, healthcare, education, defence and all the other things currently financed by taxes. We are not working for months a year to pay the government. We are working to pay those things we all as a society use
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
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0
Originally posted by: Amplifier
Originally posted by: chowderhead
Originally posted by: Amplifier
Originally posted by: chowderhead
GW Bush has signed each and every spending bill this Republican Congress has shoveled in front of his fiscally reckless face. He has signed each and every tax cut. The government can and does certainly spend today what is going to be produced in the future by borrowing in the form of bonds. You spend more than you make, you borrow to make up the difference. You have a net negative cash flow. You continue to do this, you add more and more to your debt.

Spending is of course the issue but so is revenue. You cut taxes, ramp up spending enough and you can see why George W. Bush and this Republican Congress is on pace to DOUBLE the national debt.

You didn't even read that article.

I read the article. It advocated less government spending. Fine. I agree. I said looking at this President and this Republican Congress and past history, that it's not likely to happen.

You went further than the professor by saying adding 1 trillion dollars to the national debt is better than 400 billion if we cut spending by 1.2 trillion. I welcome you to board the tram and exit fantasyland if you think that will happen. Having the government borrowing an extra 1.2 trillion dollars would probably cause a large spike in interest rates plus on the negative effects with the cuts to hospitals, old people, military etc. Spending is a problem but so is revenue.

What costs more: A $1,000,000 house that's paid for in cash. Or a $500,000 house that has a mortgage of $400,000 @ 4.75%.
In the Bush Years, we buy a $500,000 house with the $400,000 mortgage @ 4.75% but it turns out we've got to make $200,000 in repairs so we finance that @6% (2nd mortagage). Then we've got some interior upgrades for another $100,000@7% (credit card). Then we decide we need new landscaping for $50,000@9% (2nd credit card). But for the mistress in Baghdad, she gets a $150,000 condo paid in cash.

---

This country has lived beyond its means for decades, but there was always a degree of restraint. The Bush Regime/GOP Congress has none. It's a shame most of the them will be dead when the bill comes due . . . but with our luck I'm sure they will try to exempt their heirs from paying their fair share (estate tax).

 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
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In this guys world, money is a constraint lessened by debt. That debt is burdened by people to get us to spend less and assume the debt.

However, there are problems with that assumption. First, the debt isn't assumed by just Americans. Thus, economically, we are burdening others with the debt we ourselves should assume. Furthermore, we are paying them for our current consumption.

He also removes the issue of dead weight loss. Even if the government were to constrain the consumption of the consumer, they are placing an artificial constraint, which causes frictional dead weight losses.

He goes on to assume that the "breaks" the government uses are somehow more effective than if the government put those breaks upon itself. He is essentially removing responsibility for money from the policy makers to the people.

Lastly, he is assuming that you can, forever, keep up an increasing accounting deficit. The fact of the matter is that if the cosntraints upon the American people do not work to help fund the "deficit" and to constrain the deficit, then the deficit will grow in perpetuity, meaning we will owe an infinite amount of money to other people also.

I wonder what the risk-free rate of return is for an infinite amount of money? Could we end up being the goose laying the perpetual golden egg for another economy, essentially ensuring them unlimited return, provided they do not adjust our risk-free nature?

Overall, article doesn't make sense.

As for somebody else's post. It doesn't make sense to assume that if we made 2tril we couldn't just spend 2tril. We need to constrain ourselves to what we make, accounting or otherwise.