Question Is "the writing on the wall" - the end for enthusiasts? [LTT]

[VirtualLarry]

Discussing if Apple's M1 silicon is the future of computing, and discrete CPU and GPU days are numbered.

Maybe this should go in the Apple M series silicon thread, sorry.

 

[poke01]

My take is that PC will always have options. DIY will exist but maybe also huge SoCs from Intel, AMD and Nvidia(if it ever creates ARM chips for WoA) will come to birth.

Qualcomm will rule the high-end PC laptop space if their Nuvia SoCs are any bit good as Apples.

 

[Glo.]

Qualcomm will rule the high-end PC laptop space if their Nuvia SoCs are any bit good as Apples.

I think people overestimate Qualcomm, and underestimate Intel and AMD on this front.

 

[Lodix]

I think people overestimate Qualcomm, and underestimate Intel and AMD on this front.

It is the other way in fact. And mostly in this forums of desktop enthusiasms that have profound relationships with AMD/Intel because it is all they have known for years.

At first it was the adversion to the idea of TSMC over taking Intel in process node manufacturing. I had a lot of arguments here years ago with people.

Then people trying to undermine Apple CPU architecture and in general the ARM ISA until they could no longer deny what is in front of them.

Intel and AMD CPU architectures is nothing special compared to what ARM deliverers. Indeed it is in most cases worst. More area and power for the same performance.

Qualcomm has now the team behind Apple CPU architecture. It is natural to expect something good from that. Not the other way around.

And for this segment of Low power/TDP/area. It is much more than just the CPU. It is the ability to integrate a lot of other things in a small SoC. Something Intel and AMD are subpar compared to the Qualcomm/Samsung/Mediatek etc.

They have powerful and efficient IPs from Modem, ISP, NPU, Multimedia, Connectivity, GPUs, etc.

In fact talking about GPUs... Qualcomm Adreno architecture is top notch. I would argue it is better than AMD's. In things like performance per are and per power.

 

[Timmah!]

I dont think its the end of enthusiasts or DIY systems, but its slowly turns into the uber-expensive hobby - even if its more than that and such system makes you money (unless its truly good money dwarfing the costs, which is not my case).

For me, it possibly crossed the threshold already, as if, after 5 years, i will be building a new machine this year, it will be most likely Zen4 system, thus i will be going backwards on number of features i had for all these years since cca 2010. Like for example number of memory channels (from 3 on X58 through 4 on X99/X299 going down to 2) or number of PCI-E links to CPU. All of it because the closest thing to former "HEDT" has been priced to stratospheric levels, when just mobo + cheapest TR5000 is more than i paid for entire X58 machine including top of the line GPU back in 2010/2011.

Its definitely sad.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Like for example number of memory channels (from 3 on X58 through 4 on X99/X299 going down to 2)

Technically, you still get four channels but 32-bit with dual channel DDR5 and the much higher bandwidth as well as DDR5 rank interleaving should give you a much higher multicore performance.

DDR5 Deep Dive - Exclusive interview with Kingston about the new memory standard and many examples from practice | Page 2 | igor'sLAB (igorslab.de)

Where previous 11th generation CPUs had only a single integrated memory controller or IMC, Intel has integrated a second one for the 12th generation. Bandwidth effectively remains the same with 2 channels of 64-bits, but multi-tasking should now be more efficient to implement. We could already confirm this in the tests of our CPU generation comparison with DDR4. Here, for example, Alder Lake manages to achieve almost 10 GB/s more throughput from the exact same RAM than Comet Lake in the AIDA64 Copy Test. With DDR5 and the division of each channel into the two 32-bit subchannels, both IMCs now talk to both channels respectively and can thus distribute the work packets between the modules even more efficiently. If you now also consider that each channel can in turn contain up to 8 ranks, the performance potential of the new DDR5 standard becomes very evident.

 

[gdansk]

I'm not opposed to buying Qualcomm laptops. Most the Intel and AMD laptops are basically unrepairable future trash too.

Qualcomm uses newer processes than AMD and Intel so they could easily be more energy efficient. And if the Nuvia cores are even 90% of what was advertised they will be in a good position for performance.

Laptops make up something like 70% of PC sales? It's the best target for Qualcomm.

As for this killing consumer "DIY" PCs I don't see it happening soon. No one outside of Apple wants to design an integrated part that would be attractive there. This process will drive prices up, however. Volume decreases as the low end disappears to integrated systems.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Qualcomm uses newer processes than AMD and Intel

That may change in the near future. Qualcomm played footsie with Samsung and had to retreat from 4LPE to N4 for the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1+ for, you know, reasons. AMD is just now getting on to N5. All of Qualcomm's time on Samsung nodes amounted to wasted opportunity for the company. And of course, like with nVidia, TSMC pays close attention to the loyalty of customers. So we shall see.

 

[gdansk]

That may change in the near future. Qualcomm played footsie with Samsung and had to retreat from 4LPE to N4 for the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1+ for, you know, reasons. AMD is just now getting on to N5. All of Qualcomm's time on Samsung nodes amounted to wasted opportunity for the company. And of course, like with nVidia, TSMC pays close attention to the loyalty of customers. So we shall see.

We will see but I suspect Qualcomm will have the first 3nm parts available for any Windows PC. Whether or not they're any better than what Intel and AMD have available at that time is another matter.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

With DDR5 and the division of each channel into the two 32-bit subchannels, both IMCs now talk to both channels respectively and can thus distribute the work packets between the modules even more efficiently. If you now also consider that each channel can in turn contain up to 8 ranks, the performance potential of the new DDR5 standard becomes very evident.

With DDR(1)/2/3/4 you need 4 double rank DIMMs for the same effect. On a 128bit bus. When you consider DDR5 has potential for 16 ranks across a 128bit bus, that is quite massive. As is the potential bandwidth.

The OPs example of the X58-platform has 3 channels of DDR3-1066 (unofficially you could easily push to 1600). That is a combined bandwidth of 25584MB/s. That's less then a single channels worth of DDR4-3600 (28800MB/s).

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Here's my hot take,

Point 1: We just experienced the biggest boom in PC gaming in a long time, thanks to human malware shutting the world down. Millions suddenly had time to game, and needed to WFH. Doesn't matter if it was roll your own, or prebuilt, the PCMR ranks swelled.

PC sales were 340-350 million each year, for 2020 and 2021. The only thing holding back more, were the shortages. Desktops accounted for almost 20 percent of sales. That is a lot of desktops boys and girls. Doesn't matter how many were S.I. or DIY, It indoctrinates new PC gamers, and good luck once that bug has bitten you.

I agree with the analyst at the end of the article at Tom's, who concluded that now that the basic needs are meant, people will start eyeing more premium systems to improve the experience. S.I. and some OEM use off the shelf parts, this will only help keep the DIY scene healthy.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/pc-sales-hit-350-million-units-in-2021

Point 2: Consoles are abandoning true exclusives. They will be time limited at best, where we get the port a year or 2 later at worst. One of the ancillary effects of this, is that I no longer have to buy a console, ever. Spiderman, God of War, Red Dead 2, all made certain I bought a PS4 Pro. That money can now be spent on PC gaming instead. Undoubtedly I am far from alone in this thinking. Particularly given every barrier to easy setup for couch gaming on PC fell years ago.

Point 3: I don't understand the replies claiming it will be expensive. Expensive compared to what? I dropped a couple thousand year after year on MMA gyms and equipment alone. That's not factoring in the expense of the injuries incurred. Don't get me started on how expensive mountain biking can get. And there are the costs associated with travel when you don't live near good trails, and have to travel hours each way for good rides. People with boats laugh at your idea of expensive. Same for car enthusiasts. Or just about any other adult hobby. And many of those hobbies lack the ability to also serve as a necessary tool for making a livelihood.

Point 4: News of DIY PC's death has always been greatly exaggerated. This pearl clutching has been going on since at least the PS3 Xbox 360 days. Probably longer, but my brain is toast. It ain't going anywhere, anytime soon. Because no matter which form of PC was the gateway drug that brought all these new members to the PCMR, many have become addicted, and we all know where that leads.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

DIY PCs seem kind of like cars as a hobby. Do you need a new car every few years? No of course not. Does the car need that special paint job to go around the map any better? No of course not. Does this cool looking car with a premium brand actually drive any better, or even nearly as well and fast, as a Subaru WRX, or more comfortably and reliably than a Lexus? No of course not. But people go for all that anyway.

So it seems like if AMD and Nvidia and etc. can pick things back up the DIY market will be right back to where it started, at least until Carbon Nanotube FETS come along and put the equivalent of a 4090 and a Zen 4 32 core into the form factor of a Nintendo Switch. But until that time it seems like DIY will be fine, because it's a hobby for many people in and of itself even beyond gaming or productivity.

 

[dark zero]

I think people overestimate Qualcomm, and underestimate Intel and AMD on this front.

To be fair, even Mediatek can shine if can run Windows. Sadly seems that only Qualcomm can run Windows and are being overstimated a lot.
Meanwhile despite AMD is about to fail hard with Mendocino (sorry, but their iGPU is a potential dissaster), and Intel has a decent way with the Alder Lake -N (hope that their iGPU does not get screwed hard), both will bring a strong opposition to the competition from Qualcomm.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Meanwhile despite AMD is about to fail hard with Mendocino (sorry, but their iGPU is a potential dissaster),

Could you elaborate on that? I don't understand why it would fail hard? I thought it was meant to provide basic iGPU functionality like intel HD. And it does include AV1 decode.

 

[dark zero]

Could you elaborate on that? I don't understand why it would fail hard? I thought it was meant to provide basic iGPU functionality like intel HD. And it does include AV1 decode.

Indeed, bringing the functions are welcome, but I am seeing that it might fall short to the old AMD CPUs like the 5300U (Lucienne) and yeah, we know that Mendocino is the sucessor of Pollock, but still, it is getting branded up to Ryzen 5 which is totally uncanny to say the least.

Pollock was until Ryzen 3.

 

[shady28]

I didn't watch the video but frankly, don't need to. They used to call this "convergence" - a term popularized back when people were talking about "converging" your phone, PDA, and GPS into one device. Many once large and successful companies were demolished in this process (Palm), some survived (Garmin), others beat all comers (Apple).

This will happen in the PC space when the technology is capable. When your sandwich sized converged PC will do 200FPS at 4K do you really need a discrete component PC that will do 500? I think that convergence is going to be very soon.

 

[Tech Junky]

convergence

That's a good point. This is happening with the CPU going tiled to encompass more items into a single die coming this fall w/ AMD and 2024 for Intel and Apple is already doing it with M1/M2.

Not likely to combine the GPU into them at the performance of a dGPU but, will have better options for iGPU and space to move things around as needed w/o adjusting the socket they plug into.

Wiping out the option though isn't going to be something any of the 3 can do though at this point or in the next 20 years so.... If someone comes up with the shrinking tech and a way to avoid the heat for something that fits in your hand vs 20# in a case it would be a nice option. Kind of like taking a SFF PC and adding your normally internal gear to the outside via ports. I've thought about doing something modular but, it's not as flexible right now with what's on the market to make it work as I want it to.

 

[Ranulf]

Convergence has happened on the mobile end already. Apple dropped the ipod touch completely this year. Mobile audio and video only on iphones. The problem with convergence to a sandwich gaming PC is cost and budget of the customers. Once you go down that convergence or mobile and SFF route, your devices become disposable consumer goods. Good luck justifying high prices unless you're a popular niche brand.

 

[DrMrLordX]

We will see but I suspect Qualcomm will have the first 3nm parts available for any Windows PC. Whether or not they're any better than what Intel and AMD have available at that time is another matter.

Actually I think Intel will be first to N3, but I digress. With N4 variants being as good as they are, Qualcomm may be hunting one of those first rather than N3.

 

[Vattila]

no one cared to tell me noise isolation also = thermal isolation especially when its shaped like that, as the air flow gets terribly jumbled

I can recognise myself in your story. Back in the early 2000s I was into computer music, synthesizers, recording, sequencing, and that kind of thing. So when I had my first properly custom PC built (from Kustom PCs, appropriately enough), I selected a speciality PC case, which was pretty much all built out of sound-proofing material. Within all that insulation, I even had the 7200 rpm hard-drive installed in an enclosure, thus operating ominously close to thermal limits. I also selected a custom large and quiet cooler from Zalman with an extra low-noise adapter, which the PC builder added for free to ensure my requirements were met. The system had no case fans at all, except for the fan in the power supply. The power supply was also selected for low noise. The whole system was all about reducing noise at the cost of heat. Hence I selected a 65 W CPU and a low-end GPU (which didn't do my other interest much good; flight simulators). I corresponded for weeks with the PC builder to get the system to my stringent low-noise requirements. They provided marvellous service, and the delivered system was notably quieter than any I had used before.

The big noise offender for an idling system was of course hard-drives back then. So sound-proofing as well as you could to silence the incessant hum was the main goal. I still have a secondary hard-drive in my latest system, which I ideally would like to replace. I try to keep it spun down, but Windows likes to spin it up frequently for various reasons (some of which I have been able to disable, but others still remain, apparently).

Although I no longer dabble in recording and music creation, I am still somewhat bothered by noise, especially adapting to new noise after changing things. What I realised after my recent upgrade (of a later PC system which I built myself with components from the same company, some of which I have upgraded over the years), is that clearing out improvised sound-dampening and enabling case fans can actually lower fan noise, as better airflow allows larger fans to spin slower.

As regards DIY, it is years between upgrades for me. But, although I don't really need to, and I may be reluctant to do so for no good reason, I still do DIY upgrades in the hope it should rekindle some computer enthusiasm and boost productivity. In that sense it is nice to have the flexibility of a standard ATX desktop PC. However, the next big system replacement will probably be off-the-shelf or custom built (I would like to give Kustom PCs some business again, as I am happy to see they are still up and running).

When your sandwich sized converged PC will do 200FPS at 4K do you really need a discrete component PC

I think convergence will have a hard time killing off modular ATX systems as long as hardware and software engineers innovate to provide features and performance up into the 1000 W regime. The large power budget in the desktop PC allows extra performance and features. This is why high-end discrete GPUs still sell and will not be replaced by integrated graphics anytime soon. GPU vendors are able to use that power to push state-of-the-art in graphics. And, as regards the latter, there is a long way to go in the transition to game engines relying more and more on true-to-life physics simulation (ray-tracing, motion, etc.). And there is AI as another computationally intensive path to explore.

That said, dedicated high-performance gaming consoles and cloud gaming (the latter likely in conjunction with the former) may continue to put displacement pressure on the gaming portion of the PC desktop market. So far, though, it has been a growing segment of a shrinking market for desktop PCs overall, I think. In the mainstream, and increasingly in gaming too, people prefer notebooks.

 

[biostud]

I doubt it. But there is a larger diversity, and therefore competition in the market. It ranges from Rasberry Pi and the likes, to PC, Mac, phones, and consoles, each with its own segment of users.

I’ve been building computers the last 30 years, and the trend has always been towards a more simple setup, and less pitfalls which is good for most users, but make the hobby a little less interesting.

When I started building, you had to consider a lot of different video card makers, names like matrox, #9, s3, diamond, tseng labs, ATi, nvidia

The motherboards a wider variety of chipsets

for my first desktop I bought a special hard disk controller, and others used SCSI for extra performance.

you actually had to use the isa/pci slots for sound cards, network cards CD-ROM controllers.

overclocking gained you +25% performance.

Compared with the situation today, where as long as you don’t buy an el-cheapo PSU, you can buy more less whatever component you like and it will work as intended and the difference often comes down to how the RGB layout is, and the performance difference between similar products are in the single digits. So maybe the hardware enthusiast will be a smaller crowd or move towards raspberry pi, but as a gaming and work platform it will continue to live on.

 

[igor_kavinski]

That's a good point. This is happening with the CPU going tiled to encompass more items into a single die coming this fall w/ AMD and 2024 for Intel and Apple is already doing it with M1/M2.

A side effect of that will be developers better optimizing their titles for iGPUs as they won't suck that much anymore and this might translate to even more performance from dGPUs. Decent iGPUs benefit everyone.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

The big noise offender for an idling system was of course hard-drives back then. So sound-proofing as well as you could to silence the incessant hum was the main goal. I still have a secondary hard-drive in my latest system, which I ideally would like to replace. I try to keep it spun down, but Windows likes to spin it up frequently for various reasons (some of which I have been able to disable, but others still remain, apparently).

Indeed. Some sounded like power drills and/or turbine engines when seeking. Especially Raptors, those and low noise do not go together. Thankfully, SSD don't make any noise at all.

I also find the most annoying noise is that which ramps up and down frequently. I don't mind a little fan/flow noise, but ramping up and down constantly gets on my nerves. What's left of them anyway. But I'm also used to listening to a heatpump churning air. But it doesn't really make all that much noise when left to it's own devices, and my brain simply filters the rest out.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Some sounded like power drills and/or turbine engines when seeking.

I've had the pleasure of being SCARED on hearing the fan noise from a P106-100 (mining version of Geforce 1060 6GB). I gave it to my friend and he got worried too. Thankfully, the fans can be tamed with MSI Afterburner but when going full speed, it almost sounds like something in your PC will explode.

 

[jpiniero]

PC sales were 340-350 million each year, for 2020 and 2021. The only thing holding back more, were the shortages. Desktops accounted for almost 20 percent of sales. That is a lot of desktops boys and girls. Doesn't matter how many were S.I. or DIY, It indoctrinates new PC gamers, and good luck once that bug has bitten you.

Last year was the first year since at least 2014 that Intel had positive desktop volume. But even that was probably because some RTO. This year is looking like it will be down again.

 

[Ranulf]

I've had the pleasure of being SCARED on hearing the fan noise from a P106-100 (mining version of Geforce 1060 6GB). I gave it to my friend and he got worried too. Thankfully, the fans can be tamed with MSI Afterburner but when going full speed, it almost sounds like something in your PC will explode.

So 60mm Delta loud?