Is the Web dead?

[Vic Vega]

The new Google maps thread got me thinking about this.

A lot of people don't care for Google products. At this point, if someone wanted to build a map website could the market even support it? Would the user base support it?

Back in the day we had MapQuest with a few others - then Google came.

Google maps IMO when it launched was simply better. Google also invested in it heavily and paid the up front cost to do street view mapping. So my opinion is they have worked hard, made a good product and deserve to have the market share they do.

But, suppose they start to suck. Is there a way out? A majority of the web seems to be in a similar state these days. A few major players, which got to the top because they were good are beginning to (or have been) suck.

But the web is different now than it was in 1996. Are startups even possible anymore? This is slightly rhetorical because I know they are but could say a Google start today in 2013 and by 2023 be what Google is today?

 

[swanysto]

Of course they can. Yahoo and others were the Google of the 90's/00's. It is about staying fresh. At some point, people are going to get tired of the ads and move to a more simple browser, like they did when Google was simple.

 

[aldamon]

I froze the bloated Google Maps on my phone and started using MapQuest. It's a good app that works great with FAST GPS lock without using data (<cough> FU Google). I think sometimes it's a good idea to see what else is out there and I can't be alone.

 

[lxskllr]

People confuse convenience with necessity. They'll sell out their identities for trivial conveniences and shiny baubles. There's plenty of room for additional players. "Best" isn't always the easiest to use or the prettiest. It might be the most secure, the most private, or give the most control. In fact, I value the second list far above the first.

 

[unokitty]

But the web is different now than it was in 1996. Are startups even possible anymore? This is slightly rhetorical because I know they are but could say a Google start today in 2013 and by 2023 be what Google is today?

The days of the internet as a truly global network are numbered. It was always a possibility that the system would eventually be Balkanised, ie divided into a number of geographical or jurisdiction-determined subnets as societies such as China, Russia, Iran and other Islamic states decided that they needed to control how their citizens communicated. Now, Balkanisation is a certainty.
...
"the rhetoric of the 'internet freedom agenda' looks as trustworthy as George Bush's 'freedom agenda' after Abu Ghraib."

From: Edward Snowden's not the story. The fate of the internet is

Only time will tell. But there is a good chance that the Internet has peaked.

One thing is certain. And that is, that you are correct when you say "Things are different now."

Uno

 

[IronWing]

The true potential of the internet was strangled at birth. The ISPs decided there was more money to be made by separating web access from webhosting than there was in allowing customers access the web as peers on what was designed as a peer-to-peer network. Even the term peer-to-peer has been demonized. The push to cloud computing, online storage, and devices designed to limit user input will help seal the deal. The promise of the internet was freedom of expression, to self publish on our own terms. Enthusiast personal websites of all sorts used to be everywhere. The current promise is the freedom to like pictures of puppies.

 

[lxskllr]

The true potential of the internet was strangled at birth. The ISPs decided there was more money to be made by separating web access from webhosting than there was in allowing customers access the web as peers on what was designed as a peer-to-peer network. Even the term peer-to-peer has been demonized. The push to cloud computing, online storage, and devices designed to limit user input will help seal the deal. The promise of the internet was freedom of expression, to self publish on our own terms. Enthusiast personal websites of all sorts used to be everywhere. The current promise is the freedom to like pictures of puppies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akKinsAQpHg

 

[Red Storm]

If the product/service starts to suck more and more then people will move on to better alternatives, that's how it works in every industry.

 

[Markbnj]

Only time will tell. But there is a good chance that the Internet has peaked.

Really, this is fairly funny. Like someone telling Gutenberg in 1460 that printing had peaked.

 

[Red Storm]

Really, this is fairly funny. Like someone telling Gutenberg in 1460 that printing had peaked.

I know right? I think we have a long ways to go before the Internet "peaks".

 

[lxskllr]

Really, this is fairly funny. Like someone telling Gutenberg in 1460 that printing had peaked.

I don't think he's so far off the mark. In sheer size and scope it hasn't peaked, but the way things are going, freedom is quickly being lost.

 

[AmdEmAll]

IMO Map Quest is better and I just realized this yesterday while planning my 3500 mile road trip.

 

[Markbnj]

I don't think he's so far off the mark. In sheer size and scope it hasn't peaked, but the way things are going, freedom is quickly being lost.

Well, then you're talking about some other subjective quality that the web apparently has, or had. Objectively, the web is a data network, and I don't think it will "peak" unless human population starts falling.

 

[lxskllr]

Well, then you're talking about some other subjective quality that the web apparently has, or had. Objectively, the web is a data network, and I don't think it will "peak" unless human population starts falling.

Maybe. But the promise of the web was a free network of peers, or the "wild west" as it's detractors call it. I don't know that I'd trivialize it as much by calling it subjective. The way you wrote it, it makes it sound like touchy-feely nonsense, and I think it's more important than that. The web's becoming centered around large services that are easily data mined and surveilled, and it best feature; freedom is being lost.

 

[Jeff7]

The true potential of the internet was strangled at birth. The ISPs decided there was more money to be made by separating web access from webhosting than there was in allowing customers access the web as peers on what was designed as a peer-to-peer network. Even the term peer-to-peer has been demonized. The push to cloud computing, online storage, and devices designed to limit user input will help seal the deal. The promise of the internet was freedom of expression, to self publish on our own terms. Enthusiast personal websites of all sorts used to be everywhere. The current promise is the freedom to like pictures of puppies.

And then have targeted ads thrown at you based on your Like history trail.

I don't think he's so far off the mark. In sheer size and scope it hasn't peaked, but the way things are going, freedom is quickly being lost.

With cloud services, you're now storing your books of information - personal diaries, books of trade secrets for a business, family photos, anything of value - in someone else's warehouse.
"Don't worry, we won't look at their contents under any circumstance.
Unless someone here gets bored, or if someone asks us, or if someone offers us money. Oh, and if there's ever a break-in and some books are photocopied, we might not bother to tell you about it, at least not for awhile.
If we ever go out of business, we're also under no obligation to give your books back; that would just be an extra expense. The storage shelves will likely be liquidated entirely, and we may or may not remove the books from them prior to that."



What a wonderful deal.



I'll upload data to a cloud server.
- It will be heavily encrypted, though even that is dependent on choosing a very long and complex password, and a strong encryption scheme.
- I'll keep a copy of it myself.

 

[Markbnj]

Maybe. But the promise of the web was a free network of peers, or the "wild west" as it's detractors call it. I don't know that I'd trivialize it as much by calling it subjective. The way you wrote it, it makes it sound like touchy-feely nonsense, and I think it's more important than that. The web's becoming centered around large services that are easily data mined and surveilled, and it best feature; freedom is being lost.

When you talk about the "promise" of a technology I don't think you can call it anything other than subjective. I'm being purposely minimalist, but I do think that "promise" was essentially grafted onto the technology by the culture of its early adopters. It's arguable whether that was ever a sustainable condition. People don't like to bank, and conduct business transactions in the wild west.

There seems to be a three-sided struggle for influence over the network by industry, government, and social forces. Perhaps four-sided if you throw in criminal elements. I doubt the struggle will ever be resolved. It may not be possible to control how it is used and evolves. Right now there are physical choke points in corporate hands. Perhaps that won't always be the case.

One thing is certain: it's very, very early in the lifecycle of this technology and its effect on societies. I have no idea what kind of world it will ultimately create.

 

[T9D]

That's the beauty of the web.

Disruptive technology (or just a better product) can take over nearly instantly and become a hit that spreads like fire.

An example is myspace. Mass exodus from that site. It happens all the time. All it can take is a small tipping of the scales even. Then it all falls down.

For now people get used to it though and stick with a site because everyone else does. The general population doesn't go looking and researching. But when the ones that do find something and it eventually spreads it's all over.

So yes it may seem like some of these sites can't compete. And sure maybe not all at once. But when you look at it like this way: Perhaps they start small and just keep adding and growing until they catch up to that big company that didn't keep improving then it can be done.

And you are forgetting investors. If they just see some potential they can go all in and suddenly out of thin air you have this amazing products that takes over.

Big companies like google eventually get massive overhead in paying raises and retirement and such that keeps adding up. Stock holders also expect more and more and so cuts and bad decisions get made for short term stock prices. Or to much advertising that breaks the users loyalty.

And don't forget about investors. You can have a small startup suddenly come out of nowhere and be huge if investors see potential.

 

[BoberFett]

Yep, it's dead. Netcraft confirms it.

 

[Staples]

I will say what I have always said. No matter how much someone is better than Google search, people will stick with Google because it is good enough and they are familiar with Google.

 

[Vdubchaos]

If you look at the internet past 5-10 years.......there is really nothing new or groundbreaking.

I think it's dead. Heck turn off internet today and my life will be effected VERY little (if any).

Ok fine, I will have to start writing checks again (no big deal).

 

[IronWing]

I will say what I have always said. No matter how much someone is better than Google search, people will stick with Google because it is good enough and they are familiar with Google.

Fortunately for their competitors, Google can't stop dinking with success and eventually breaks the stuff that brought them to the party. GMail sucks, basic search gets worse by the week, Google just can't leave stuff alone. Zero corporate discipline.

 

[Red Storm]

I will say what I have always said. No matter how much someone is better than Google search, people will stick with Google because it is good enough and they are familiar with Google.

That's not unique to Google. As long as any product/service is good enough then most of its users will have no reason to switch.