Is the surge working? *Update*

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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,425
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Originally posted by: Lemon law
No Moonbeam---I don't hope the surge fails---there simply is no surge to fail or succeed---we need to come up with 400,000 more non-Iraqi troops to have a real surge.
For now all we have is a new imaginary friend of GWB&co..---the truth will set you free.--be a realist--until the USA can confront and break the power of the militias, all we are doing is stirring a toxic mixture.

That is your opinion. I am not sure I agree. The surge supposedly is also a different approach designed, particularly in Baghdad, to make living safer for the people. Some suggest it is working. I don't know, but I hope so. Your truth may tell you one thing but mine tells me not to be too damn certain of anything.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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To Moonbeam---who says--That is your opinion. I am not sure I agree. The surge supposedly is also a different approach designed, particularly in Baghdad, to make living safer for the people. Some suggest it is working. I don't know, but I hope so. Your truth may tell you one thing but mine tells me not to be too damn certain of anything.

I hope your optimism is justified by events. The illusion is and remains that we have infinite time before something triggers a total meltdown.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Unlike you he gets paid major bucks for what he says and what he thinks, and a lot of people listen to him and his ideas...

oh... and he is right, the surge is showing results, but the Democrats are ignoring that fact.

The Wisdom Of Bill Kristol:

?There?s been a certain amount of pop sociology in America that the Shia can?t get along with the Sunni and the Shia in Iraq want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There?s been almost no evidence of that at all?

?Iraq?s always been very secular.?

"He?s [Saddam Hussein] got weapons of mass destruction. At some point he will use them or give them to a terrorist group to use?Look, if we free the people of Iraq we will be respected in the Arab world."

In the opening moments of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Kristol insisted, "We are now in the final days." He intoned, "If the President lied to the American People...he's finished."

This guy is amazing. I think he is a smart guy who actually does know what's really going on. I feel like it's the only way he could be so incredibly wrong absolutely 100% of the time. Mere chance just doesn't account for it.

I really think if Bill Kristol told me the earth was round, I would at least have to go back to someone else and double check.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
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the Shia in Iraq want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There?s been almost no evidence of that at all?

AND

?Iraq?s always been very secular.?

If he's refering to the (huge) philosophcal difference between the Shia in Iraq and those in Iran, I have to agree.

Iraq, and it's Imams, are the spiritual leaders of most of the Shia world. Its' Shia "HQ", and the center of authority for all but exceptions like Iran.

The Shia school of thought eminating from Iraq (Al Sistani etc) demands the seperation of "church & state". Shia clerics are NOT to be involved in government. There are other substantive differences but I'll leave it at that for the moment.

The Iranian, OTOH and unlike Iraqi, beleive that the clergy should be in control of the government. Thus they are fundamentally the opposite. I find Muktada Al Sadr (the self-styled mullah lacking schooling in Iraqi Shiaism) a troubling figure. He seems to be pursuing the Iranian model for political purpose of gaining power, and has Iranian support for what I beleive are obvious reasons. He's much disfavored by traditional Iraqi clergy.

So, Kristols contention that Iraq shows no signs of pursuing an Islamic fundamentalist government would seem soundly based. Likewise with remarks about a secular Iraq (to the extent he is referring to it's government).

Fern
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,425
6,086
126
Originally posted by: Lemon law
To Moonbeam---who says--That is your opinion. I am not sure I agree. The surge supposedly is also a different approach designed, particularly in Baghdad, to make living safer for the people. Some suggest it is working. I don't know, but I hope so. Your truth may tell you one thing but mine tells me not to be too damn certain of anything.

I hope your optimism is justified by events. The illusion is and remains that we have infinite time before something triggers a total meltdown.

It is only a hope; it is not certain knowledge. I also do not know what the illusions are which you apparently do. I do know that when one believes strongly is the illusion they know what illusions are those illusions can cause certain behaviors and points of view and prevent others. I object and caution against certainty, yours or mine.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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I read in last weeks Newsweek that the violence in Baghdad was now about a quarter of what it was pre-surge, yet another sign that surge is working so far.

Right now the surge is working. The open question is how long will this relative peace last and can we use the peace to make real progress.

Tomy as tragic as the deaths of 7 soldiers is I do not believe that our death toll is any high now it has been in the recent past.
So we have increased the number of troops in Baghdad, by I believe 8000 so far, and we have cut the number of civilians who are dying by 75% and we have not seen an increase in the number of American casulties. Therefore the surge is doing what it is suppose to do.

Now if the goal is to reduce the number of American soldiers who die then the only way to do that is bring them all home, and right now only 25-30% of the country seem to want that. If the demand to bring them home was larger then perhaps the Democrats would actually be able to pass some of their anti-war legislations, but so far they have none been able to get anything meaningful through either body.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,006
47,965
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Originally posted by: Fern
the Shia in Iraq want to establish some kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime. There?s been almost no evidence of that at all?

AND

?Iraq?s always been very secular.?

If he's refering to the (huge) philosophcal difference between the Shia in Iraq and those in Iran, I have to agree.

Iraq, and it's Imams, are the spiritual leaders of most of the Shia world. Its' Shia "HQ", and the center of authority for all but exceptions like Iran.

The Shia school of thought eminating from Iraq (Al Sistani etc) demands the seperation of "church & state". Shia clerics are NOT to be involved in government. There are other substantive differences but I'll leave it at that for the moment.

The Iranian, OTOH and unlike Iraqi, beleive that the clergy should be in control of the government. Thus they are fundamentally the opposite. I find Muktada Al Sadr (the self-styled mullah lacking schooling in Iraqi Shiaism) a troubling figure. He seems to be pursuing the Iranian model for political purpose of gaining power, and has Iranian support for what I beleive are obvious reasons. He's much disfavored by traditional Iraqi clergy.

So, Kristols contention that Iraq shows no signs of pursuing an Islamic fundamentalist government would seem soundly based. Likewise with remarks about a secular Iraq (to the extent he is referring to it's government).

Fern

Actually that's really really wrong, The two largest parties in the Iraqi Parliament are the Sadrists (the guys who view the Iranian theocrats as their greatest ally and who want to enforce the Sharia in Iraq), and another party called the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution In Iraq.

Guess what they want to do.

Even if Iraq doesn't end up a theocracy, its two largest political parties right now definitely are pushing for a form of it. So, his statement that there is no indication for that would be laughably wrong.

His comment about secular government is also rediculous. There is a provision in the Iraqi constitution that says that no law can contradict Islam. That doesn't sound very secular to me. Regardless of that, the quote that is from is talking about how the Shia and Sunnis in Iraq will get along great because Iraq was so secular... it wasn't about the government at all. Man, another bullseye for 'ol Billy K!

The guy is a hack, pure and simple.... and it is impossible to defend him. The fact that people keep giving him forums to spout his crap after he's been proven wrong over and over and over again is baffling to me.
 

blackllotus

Golden Member
May 30, 2005
1,875
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Sorry to bump this thread however you can count the number of troop deaths this month here. I don't have time atm however it should help answer the question as to whether or not the surge is working.

EDIT: Be careful, some of those casualties are in Afghanistan
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
9,567
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I read in last weeks Newsweek that the violence in Baghdad was now about a quarter of what it was pre-surge, yet another sign that surge is working so far.

Hmm. I'm not so sure of your figures. The following site

Casualties

has Coalition casualties by day since the Iraqi elections took place. I'm note sure exactly when the surge began, but if I count Coalition casualties for the 31 days of December 2006, there were 115. For the latest 31-day period (2/18 through 3/20), there were 87. That's an improvement, but only about 24%, not the 75% you cite.

And these figures are highly variable. For the 31 days from 10/31 to 11/30, there were at total of 79 Coalition casualties.

Note also (here Iraqi totals - third table down the page) that total Iraqi deaths (Security forces and civilian) are 1018 for the first 20 days of March. That extrapolates to 1578 for 31 days, versus 1752 for all of December - a 10% drop. And, again, these number vary a lot. Iraqi deaths were 1539 in October, down dramatically from 3539 in September - a large variation that occurred long before the surge.

 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn

So we have increased the number of troops in Baghdad, by I believe 8000 so far, and we have cut the number of civilians who are dying by 75% and we have not seen an increase in the number of American casulties. Therefore the surge is doing what it is suppose to do.

This kind of flawed, linear thinking that confuses the causal with correlational is why the CIA didn't want you.
 

magomago

Lifer
Sep 28, 2002
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I was thinking about making a thread on this....

but its simply too soon to tell. Like pointed out by many people, the insurgents wherever they hail from and whatever orgy they belong to, are simply waiting to see what changes are made.

Even when it comes to terrorism and urban warfare, you always want to assess the enemy first....and once you understand what they are doing different, then you hit them where it is weak.

That is not to say that we should all be glad for this minor cessation in violence...quite the contrary I hope it lasts, but when dealing with the way the "War" has gone for the past few years, its obvious now that not everything turns to roses to quickly
 

johnnobts

Golden Member
Jun 26, 2005
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its going well, but the surge wouldn't have been necessary if islam was actually a religion of peace. for that matter, the war wouldn't have been necessary b/c 9/11 wouldn't have happened.
 

blackllotus

Golden Member
May 30, 2005
1,875
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Originally posted by: johnnobts
its going well, but the surge wouldn't have been necessary if islam was actually a religion of peace. for that matter, the war wouldn't have been necessary b/c 9/11 wouldn't have happened.

9/11 was not caused by the Qur'an
 

tommywishbone

Platinum Member
May 11, 2005
2,149
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The surge appears to be working nicely...

... for the insurgents.

Suicide bombers kill dozens in Iraq By Ross Colvin
45 minutes ago, Saturday, March 24.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Suicide bombers struck across Iraq on Saturday in a sharp upsurge in violence that killed more than 60 people, many of them policemen.

In the worst attack, a man driving a truck packed with explosives blew it up outside a police station in Baghdad's volatile southern district of Dora, killing 20. The blast sent a large column of smoke into the air and rattled windows kilometres away in the center of the city.

Officers said the dead included 14 policemen and three detainees as well as three others working in the building. Another 26 were wounded. The blast caused major damage to the station, burying many victims in the rubble.

Thousands of U.S. and Iraqi troops are sweeping through Baghdad in a major operation to stem communal bloodshed. They have succeeded in reducing the number of sectarian shootings, but curbing daily car bombings has proved more difficult.

President Bush is also sending more troops to the western province of Anbar, where Sunni Arab insurgents are exacting a bloody toll on Iraqi and U.S. forces. The U.S. military said a soldier was killed in combat there on Friday.

A suicide car bomber struck a police station in the Qaim area of Anbar, near the Syrian border, on Saturday while two others struck police checkpoints at about the same time.

Police intelligence officer Hassan Abed Mottar said 10 people were killed, including seven policemen, and 18 more police were wounded.

A suicide truck bomber also struck near a Shi'ite mosque in the town of Haswa about 60 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad, killing nine and wounding 43, a hospital source said. The provincial health directorate put the death toll at 16.

In the northwestern town of Tal Afar a bomber wearing an explosives vest blew himself up in a market, killing 10 people, mayor Najim al Jibouri said. Two of the dead were policemen.

U.S. and Iraqi troops sealed off the Karrada district in the heart of Baghdad, stopping all vehicles and pedestrians from entering the area for several hours as part of the crackdown.

The streets of Karrada, whose residents are mainly Shi'ite Muslims and Christians and include several top politicians, were largely empty. Convoys of Humvee armored vehicles roamed the area, which is close to the international Green Zone.

MINISTER RECOVERING

Salam al-Zobaie, the Sunni deputy prime minister, was said to be in a good condition on Saturday after being operated on after an attempted assassination attempt by a suicide bomber at a prayer hall in his compound on Friday.

"His condition is very normal, thank God," said Alaa al- Zobaie, one of his brothers. He dismissed reports the bomber was one of Zobaie's security guards.

Brigadier-General Qassim Moussawi, spokesman for security in Baghdad, said on Saturday eight members of Zobaie's entourage were killed in the attack. An aide to Zobaie said the dead included one of Zobaie's brothers and a brother-in-law.

Bush is sending nearly 30,000 additional troops to Iraq, mostly to support the security crackdown in Baghdad, despite growing opposition at home to the unpopular war.

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Friday to impose a September 1, 2008, deadline for withdrawing all American combat troops from Iraq, prompting a quick promise of a veto from Bush.

Iraq's government stayed silent on a diplomatic row between Britain and Iran over the seizure on Friday by Iranian forces of 15 British marines and sailors in the Shatt al-Arab waterway that forms part of the southern border between Iran and Iraq.

Iran says they entered Iranian waters illegally, while Britain says they were conducting a routine search of ships in Iraqi waters. It has demanded their immediate release.

(Additional reporting by Waleed Ibrahim and Haider Salahaddin in Baghdad, Tehran bureau)

End-----------------
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
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Iraqi's might make more money if they consider refining some of the oil instead of just selling it. They could be selling Gasoline or diesel or heating oil to europe and asia. I bet China needs a lot of gasoline. Take note that China will soon produce more CO2 than the USA!

We should tell Iraq we want to have priority to buy all their oil, in case some other country wants to block us from purchasing crude oil.
 

tommywishbone

Platinum Member
May 11, 2005
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I'm pretty sure the surge is being quite effective.

Five soldiers killed in Iraq roadside bombs Sun Mar 25, 4:23 PM ET

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Five U.S. soldiers were killed on Sunday by roadside bomb attacks in Iraq, the U.S. military said in a statement.

Four soldiers were killed north of Baghdad in Diyala, a restive province where U.S. commanders recently asked for more troops to fight al Qaeda and other militants.

Two more soldiers were wounded in the attack.

A fifth soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in northwest Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

The deaths bring to at least 75 the number of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq this month.

The U.S. statement did not give any further details of the Diyala attack but commanders there have reported a rise in the occurrence of a particularly deadly type of roadside bomb called an explosively formed projectile (EFP).

end---------------------------------------


bush is laughing at all of us.
 

johnnobts

Golden Member
Jun 26, 2005
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the surge is working. casualties are declining. war is war. none of the media even noted that there was a carnival in the heart of bagdhad this week.
 

johnnobts

Golden Member
Jun 26, 2005
1,105
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its going well, but the surge wouldn't have been necessary if islam was actually a religion of peace. for that matter, the war wouldn't have been necessary b/c 9/11 wouldn't have happened.



9/11 was not caused by the Qur'an

_________________________________________________

yeah, that's why they shouted "allah ackbar" as they plunged the jets into the towers...
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,530
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Originally posted by: johnnobts
the surge is working. casualties are declining. war is war. none of the media even noted that there was a carnival in the heart of bagdhad this week.
Nobody getting blown to smithereens in Bahgdad for a week is News!:roll:
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
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Bill Kristol?!?!? WTF?!

:roll:

Dude is almost as insane as his fellow satanic brethren: Michael Ledeen and Richard Perle

This "surge" is no more effective than anything else tried in the past. The violence just moves elsewhere.

75 US troops killed so far in March. Nearly 3/day.
http://icasualties.org/oif/
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
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Originally posted by: johnnobts
the surge is working. casualties are declining. war is war. none of the media even noted that there was a carnival in the heart of bagdhad this week.
Iraqi security/military deaths are increasing. March is higher than was Feb. which was higher than was Jan. Civilian deaths only marginally lower than last month.

http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: johnnobts
the surge is working. casualties are declining. war is war. none of the media even noted that there was a carnival in the heart of bagdhad this week.
Iraqi security/military deaths are increasing. March is higher than was Feb. which was higher than was Jan. Civilian deaths only marginally lower than last month.

http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx

Originally posted by: johnnobts
its going well.

 

tomywishbone

Golden Member
Oct 24, 2006
1,401
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Update from Iraq: I maintain my position that the surge is in fact working... working to the benefit of the insurgents.

Attacks throughout Iraq kill at least 65 By SINAN SALAHEDDIN, Associated Press Writer, 24 minutes ago, Tuesday 3/27/07.

BAGHDAD - Two nearly simultaneous truck bombs ? including one detonated by remote control ? ripped through markets in Tal Afar on Tuesday, killing at least 48 people and wounding dozens, police said, as violence surged outside the Iraqi capital.

A mortar attack in the Sunni-dominated Dora neighborhood of Baghdad killed four people, including two children, a woman and a man ? the second deadly mortar attack on the enclave in three days. A suicide car bomber exploded his payload near Ramadi, killing 10 people, and two other attackers detonated explosives-laden cars in Baqouba, killing three policemen.

The attacks in Tal Afar, the second in four days, occurred about five minutes apart at popular markets in the northern and central parts of the city, 260 miles northwest of Baghdad.

At least 48 people were killed and 103 wounded, police Brig. Abdul Karim al-Jubouri said.

One of the trucks was detonated by remote control while people gathered to buy the flour it was carrying in the central Shiite neighborhood of Muhyou, a local policeman said. The other truck was loaded with vegetables and parked near a wholesale market, not far from a primary school that was closed for the day.

Jaafar Akram, a teacher who saw that explosion, said he helped the police and other civilians carry the wounded to vehicles taking them to the hospital.

"I instantly saw smoke then I heard the blast," Akram said, adding that body parts were thrown on the ground and the walls and vegetables were scattered in pools of blood.

"Thanks be to God the blast didn't occur during rush hour at the school," he said. "That reduced the disaster."

On Saturday, a man wearing an explosives belt blew himself up outside a pastry shop in the central market area in the predominantly Shiite Turkomen city, killing at least 10 people and wounding three.

Tal Afar, about 90 miles east of the Syrian border, is a mainly Turkomen city with about 60 percent of its residents adhering to Shiite Islam and 40 percent Sunnis.

It has suffered frequent insurgent attacks despite a March 20, 2006, declaration by President Bush that the city was an example of Iraq's improving security.

Among the largest attacks were a suicide car bombing on Oct. 7, 2006, that targeted a police checkpoint and killed 14 people, and a Sept. 18, 2006, suicide bombing that killed 20 and wounded 17.

A car bomb also obliterated a tent crowded with mourners for the funeral of a Kurdish official on May 1, 2005, killing 25 people, and 30 were killed when a suicide attacker set off explosives hidden beneath his clothing outside an army recruiting center on Oct. 11, 2005.

Tal Afar was an insurgent stronghold until U.S. and Iraqi troops drove them out in a September 2006 operation and constructed huge sand barriers around the city to limit access.

Bush cited that operation, in which insurgents melted away into the countryside rather than fight, as an example that gave him "confidence in our strategy."

Tuesday's vehicle bombings and an eruption of sectarian clashes south of Baghdad underscored concerns that militants have fled the capital in response to a U.S.-led security crackdown, bringing violence with them to the hinterlands.

The suicide car bomber near Ramadi struck a district northeast of the provincial capital that was not patrolled by the military, police Col. Tarik Yousif said.

Another suicide car bomber struck a police patrol in Baqouba, 35 miles northeast of Baghdad, killing two policemen and wounding four other people, police said.

Police also opened fire on a suicide car bomber as he drove toward a checkpoint near a cemetery in the center of the capital at about 5:40 p.m., but he was able to detonate his explosives killing one policeman and seriously wounding three other people, police said.

The U.S. military said a Marine was killed Saturday during combat in Anbar province west of Baghdad but gave no details.

Separately, Kirkuk police 1st. Lt. Marewan Salih said two elderly Chaldean Catholic nuns were stabbed multiple times by intruders who raided their home Monday night near Kirkuk's Cathedral of the Virgin in Kirkuk. They lived alone and there was no sign of a robbery, Salih said.

Margaret Naoum, 79, was stabbed seven times as she stood in the garden just outside the sisters' home. The attackers then found Fawzeiyah Naoum, 85, lying on the sofa inside, recovering from eye surgery last week. She was stabbed three times.

Chaldean Catholics are an ancient Eastern rite now united with Roman Catholicism. Adherents live mainly in Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq and most speak a dialect of Turkish.

In politics, a plan by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and President Jalal Talabani to introduce legislation to allow former members of Saddam Hussein's ruling party ? including those in the feared security and paramilitary forces ? resume jobs in the government or receive pensions met with criticism.

The commission currently carrying out the government's so-called "de-Baathfication" policy said the draft law ignored victims of the former regime in a highly critical statement, indicating the draft law could face trouble in parliament.

"This draft turns a blind eye to the feelings of millions of the victims of Baath Party and pays no heed to their emotions and rights. This will not lead to reconciliation," the statement said.

Long demanded by the U.S. to appease Iraq's once-dominant Sunni Arab minority, the measure would set a three-month challenge period after which ex-Baath party loyalists would be immune from legal punishment for their actions during Saddam's reign.

The draft law, which excludes former regime members already charged with or sought for crimes, also would grant state pensions to many Baathists, even if they were denied posts in the government or military.

The reconciliation measure is seen as an effort to short-circuit expected criticism of Iraq's government at an Arab League summit this week. Al-Maliki is said to fear rising support among U.S.-allied Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan for an Iraqi national unity government led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a favorite of Washington.

End----------------
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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tomy, when March is over we can look at its death toll compared to previous months and then we can make a more informed opinion on how the surge is going.

Quoting one story about one or two events does not prove the surge is a failure. You have to see the overall picture first.