Is The Shuttle Grounded Forever

[charrison]

linkage

If that is the case, then 25 more Shuttle missions statistically equates to a ~%40 chance of another dead crew. In the current climate, another Shuttle catastrophe would probably kill Plan Bush and manned space flight as well. What possible benefits from ISS could be worth this risk?

Everybody says that the Shuttles will return to flight sooner or later. I say that it is time to start thinking about the unthinkable. What if Shuttle never flies again, because of "technically unresolvable safety issues"?

Actually, things don't look so bad. Suddenly that huge $24B budget wedge allocated to Shuttle and ISS in 2005-2010 and the marching army of Shuttle servants are free to be redeployed for Plan Bush. Suddenly there IS money for real hardware, instead of "just artwork" in John Pike's pithy phrase.

Even more significantly, in a Shuttle-free universe the new CEV spacecraft and its still-unnamed superbooster would have the undivided attention of NASA management. There would be no continuing manned program with its inevitable cost overruns to suck money away from R&D. Instead, everyone would understand that rapid completion of the CEV is essential to keep space flight alive. There would be no chance that it would be allowed to fail like all previous Shuttle replacement vehicles.

The only real problem here would be the other nations participating in the ISS program, who would suddenly be left high and dry. But I've been waiting for the international partners to attack Plan Bush, and instead they have mostly been positive about it.

For instance, no ESA official has pointed out that all the partners signed binding commitments to operate ISS for ten years after "completion", not six years as proposed in Plan Bush. This suggests that the ESA is as sick of the ISS fiasco as we Yankees are (it sucks up an even larger proportion of their budget than it does NASA's). Throw them some big CEV contracts and they will fall into line. After all, ESA designed and flight-tested a prototype CEV command module way back in 1998 so they have lots of relevant experience..

Interesting op ed.

 

[dmcowen674]

Don't worry Charrison those "technically unresolvable safety issues" will not be a problem for the "REAL" Super Powers of the world now like China and India.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Don't worry Charrison those "technically unresolvable safety issues" will not be a problem for the "REAL" Super Powers of the world now like China and India.

Yes, they are only 40 years behind us in space technology?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Don't worry Charrison those "technically unresolvable safety issues" will not be a problem for the "REAL" Super Powers of the world now like China and India.

Yes, they are only 40 years behind us in space technology?

Just because they didn't have a Neil Armstrong on the moon in 1969 doesn't mean they are still stuck in 1969.

You're spinning is getting lamer and lamer.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Don't worry Charrison those "technically unresolvable safety issues" will not be a problem for the "REAL" Super Powers of the world now like China and India.

Yes, they are only 40 years behind us in space technology?

Just because they didn't have a Neil Armstrong on the moon in 1969 doesn't mean they are still stuck in 1969.

You're spinning is getting lamer and lamer.

India has yet to put a man in space and China has only recently put a man in space. I think it is fair to say they are 40 years behind.

 

[heartsurgeon]

lets sell them some "shares" in the ISS.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
lets sell them some "shares" in the ISS.

Maybe we can really set them back and sell them a few shuttles

 

[dirtboy]

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
lets sell them some "shares" in the ISS.

Wouldn't it be cheaper just to outsource the ISS?

 

[dirtboy]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Don't worry Charrison those "technically unresolvable safety issues" will not be a problem for the "REAL" Super Powers of the world now like China and India.

ummm...ahh...why...why is that??

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: dirtboy

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Don't worry Charrison those "technically unresolvable safety issues" will not be a problem for the "REAL" Super Powers of the world now like China and India.

ummm...ahh...why...why is that??

Originally posted by: dirtboy

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
lets sell them some "shares" in the ISS.

Wouldn't it be cheaper just to outsource the ISS?

Answered your own question, sure China and India will do it and at a bargain 40 cents an hour. I'm sure they would get at least double the rate of Factory workers but one never knows. India just had a refueling accident at it's launch pad where 6 workers were killed. Sorry for them and their families. I don't know the circumstances but if they were Cheap unskilled labor that will do that to you.

 

[dirtboy]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

India just had a refueling accident at it's launch pad where 6 workers were killed. Sorry for them and their families.

I thought you said that "REAL" superpowers don't have those problems. So please enlighten me, what is a "REAL" superpower?

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: charrison
Interesting op ed.

Very. Thanks for posting it.

I'm all for better replacement craft. The shuttle was cursed from the beginning with too many conflicting interests all dictating design requirements. Nonetheless, I hope we can keep them flying safely until viable alternatives are ready to go.

 

[ReiAyanami]

all china has to do is buy or steal complex space plans from lockheed or any other of our good ol american companies. like that US satellite company that sold them illegal missile technology

the only thing holding them back is that everything they make is... made in china.