Is the End for the AMD Really NEAR??

[Sid03]

christoph83, a quick search of majewski9 shows what a wealth of accurate information he's been...


8-29-01
"Um.....I dont think the P rating is back, but I think that AMD can catch up in the speed race. Hammer debuts @ 2.2ghz in january and I think u'll be quite suprised with 1.5ghz palomino. I think 2.0ghz P4 doesnt stand a chance against the newest athlons out real soon. "


8-28-01
"Hey u want more clock speed from AMD the hammer debuts january 02 @ 2.2 and some 2.4 ghz. Barton also debuts near those speeds. "


8-27-01
"Barton will widen the gap again when it debuts early 2002."


8-20-01
"Early next year Athlon@ 2.0ghz and .13 micron as well as Hammer @ 2.2ghz 64bit! "


8-14-01
"Just goes to show you that some people in the world are idiots.Yeah they are called p4 owners!... If you haven't noticed I like to bash the P4."

 

[Sid03]

so which is it, agodspeed... one line you say that the xbox figures are included. then in another line you say the article says to add a half a point if you want to include xbox figures.

the way i read that article, xbox cpu's are not included in their figures (hence the notation, "Intel's share is about a half a point higher if the chips sold to Microsoft for the Xbox are included..."

 

[AGodspeed]

<< so which is it, agodspeed... one line you say that the xbox figures are included. then in another line you say the article says to add a half a point if you want to include xbox figures.

the way i read that article, xbox cpu's are not included in their figures (hence the notation, "Intel's share is about a half a point higher if the chips sold to Microsoft for the Xbox are included..." >>

People, you must read the entire article, and do it carefully. Here ya go:

Intel's share is about a half a point higher if the chips sold to Microsoft for the Xbox are included. As a result, Intel claimed 80.6 percent of the PC market during the quarter, jumping two points from its third-quarter, 78.6 percent share. AMD, on the other hand, slid two points from 20.5 percent in the third quarter to 18.5 percent in the fourth quarter, according to Mercury.

Therefore, your statement "xbox cpu's are not included in their figures" is quite inaccurate. Simply read the entire article.

AMD's current PC market share is 20.2%. If you include sales of XBox (which all have an Intel PIII-Celeron hybrid CPU) AMD's share slips to 18.5%. Of course, all anyone is going to care about is PC sales.

 

[Sid03]

ah yes... i just re-read that for the fourth time. my apology.

nonetheless, majewski9 is incorrect (as per the norm) and amd has lost market share the last two quarters.

 

[AGodspeed]

<< ah yes... i just re-read that for the fourth time. my apology.

nonetheless, majewski9 is incorrect (as per the norm) and amd has lost market share the last two quarters. >>

Lol, majew is always inaccurate. Wet dreams about AMD maybe?

 

[Midnight Rambler]

<< The low/mid-range server market and Unix markets have and likely always will be the big cash cows for AMD and Intel. >>

Server market a cash cow for AMD? Since when?



<< << second off... since they don't have much in the way of businesses and oems, the enthusiast crowd is a huge demographic for amd. so yes, the northwood is hurting them. >>

Put simply, you're completely off. AMD's biggest OEM support comes from Compaq, which is second only to Dell in PC OEM sales (CPQ sells a good amount of AMD based desktops and laptops). HP also strongly supports AMD, with desktops and laptops based on their processors. There's also loads of support from other smaller OEMs, like XiComputer, MicronPC, Monarch Computers, etc etc. >>

And guess what's happening. Due to most major businesses being uncomfortable with the impending Compaq/HP merger, and the uncertainty that this creates for future service/warranty service, these major businesses are ditching HP and Compaq boxes like hot potatoes and replacing them with DELL boxes. The major integrators/services companies like EDS are also ditching Compaq for DELL. My company alone has ditched well over 25K Compaq Athlon boxes since just the first of the year, all of them replaced with DELLs.


As for marketshare, Dataquests numbers for _the year 2001_ indicate that it ended up 80/20 Intel/AMD. Neither company is going anywhere as current worldwide sales are in the 120M units area, and neither company can fab that many CPUs on its own, ie. there's room galore for both companies to comfortably exist.

 

[Jman13]

When AMD had the performance lead for the past 6-8 months or so, did Intel fold? No. Now that the P4 is VERY slightly ahead, and may be a bit further ahed in a bit with the 533 chips, will AMD fold? No. Is the Athlon done? no...Tbred and Barton will push the Athlon to the max. When the Hammer is released, I don't think Intel has an answer for it, so the speed crown will likely pass back to AMD...then to Intel, then back to AMD.

AMD is a big player now...not some little two bit company. They'll stick around and hopefully keep prices low and speeds increasing.

BTW: Does anyone know if Tbreds will be compatible with KT266A mobos?

 

[shathal]

I don't think you have to worry too much about AMD. It is very much in Intel's interest to make sure that AMD (or some competitor of equal size/potency) stays with them in the CPU business for a whole myriad of reasons.

If AMD *really* got into problems (hypothetically speaking), I doubt that Intel would by a part of the company, but I'm sure other companies would be interested in keeping AMD afoat as well.

So - either way, I wouldn't worry. The Pendulum strikes one way, then the other. AMD - just as Intel - has got good engineers. The only problem is that AMD is cutting it's research budget (and therefor sawing at its own tree) while Intel isn't ...

Hope this helps .

 

[Athlon4all]

Here's a quote of a post of mine that addresses this here

<< << It wouldn't fair any better. AMD's problem is that they are staying in the dark ages with a 133mhz fsb and we won't see material platform speed increases from AMD until they bump up the front-side-bus bandwith so that the processor can actually use more memory bandwith. >>

133fsb is not the dark ages. If anything, the P4's bus is dark ages because it is the same fsb that was used on the Pentium II, it's only Quad Pumped. The Athlon's EV6 may be quad pumped, and one of the most important things about it, but it is Alpha technology. It is hardly dark ages, but I do agree that AMD should do themselves a favor and make T-Bred a 166fsb part, but with KT333 launched with only 133fsb support, there's no way AMD can change their mind now

<< Guarantee you that AMD isn't close to releasing anthing near an XP at 2.67 and Intel is. Intel's P4 used to look like a joke, but now they are bumping the fsb and memory speed up by 33%, they doubled the level 2 cache of the processor, and are releasing it in speed grades of 200mhz!! Meanwhile each of AMD's new processors is only 66mhz faster than the last one, the level 2 cache path is still only 64-bits wide and only 256kb big, and they are choking the KT333 platform by sticking to a 133mhz fsb. AMD is loosing their edge. >>

AMD is not losing their edge. Intel has definately gained a lot of momentum, but keep this in mind.

Tom's benchmarks are very impressive, and scary in some of them, compared to the Athlon XP 2000+, but keep this in mind. The earliest date that has been rumored for 533fsb launch has been May 20th. That is still a good 3 months away, and with AMD on the verge of releasing a final Palomino part (2100+, 1.73GHz), it should give the AXP dominance over the 2.2 NW. I am aware though that a key factor here is NW's overclockability and also that people can allready hit 533fsb+PC1066 speeds on the 1.6A. I totally agreee, and If I had $350-400 to spend on a new mobo+CPU+RAM combo, I would have to say it would be Abit TH7II+a 1.6A, but let me say this.

T-Bred will no doubt be out at 1.8GHz by the time the 2.53GHz 533fsb NW hits the streets, and considering roadmaps, and HAmmer predictions, it's clear that T-Bred will easily hit 2GHz maybe even higher, I think that despite 533fsb and all, I would bet you that a Athlon XP 2500+ I believe it would be (2GHz) running at 166fsb+PC2700 DDR, will prolly keep pace with a overclocked 2.53GHz NW to 2.66GHz 560fsb.

AMD can definately keep up, and keep in mind also, by the time 2.66 and beyond P4's hit the streets, Hammer will be here and it will not just perform better, but it will definately have enough breathing room in terms of MHz to keep up with Intel for a while. Sorry for jabbering on.

<< H2 2002

- Granite Bay : P4 400/533Mhz FSB, Dual Channel DDR200/266, AGP 8X, USB 2.0, ICH4.
- Placer : Prestonia 533Mhz FSB, Dual Channel DDR200/266, AGP 8X, USB 2.0, ICH4.

Looks like Dual Channel DDR is well on its way. >>

Yep, for those who didn't notice, Anand gave us an article on Intel's first DCDDR chipset, the E7500 (see here) and it will only be a matter of time before Granite Bay hits the streets. I still as I've said, am holding my breath on weather Granite Bay will be any cheaper than an equivalent 850e+PC1066 setup, nor any faster as well. >>

 

[Insane3D]

"third... why is everyone talking about a 166fsb? ddr333 isn't going to be hitting the shelves any time soon. chipsets aren't really available (sure, via will be releasing theirs soon... but i hear it's not going so well.)"

Hmmm. Been out of the loop for awhile? DDR333, or more commonly referred to as PC2700 is available now, and has been for a while now. Just looking at one popular online retailer, Newegg, they list no less than four seperate brands of PC2700 or DDR333. There is PC2700 available from Kingmax, Corsair, OCZ, and Samsung to name a few. I've got a 256mb stick running in a Iwill XP333-R @ 188mhz @ CL2 as I type. The Tbird in the system is running a 188mhz FSB as well.

As far as chipsets, there is official support for DDR333 in the ALI Magik 1 (XP333), Sis735(Leadtek 7350KDA), and the Sis 745 (ECS K7S6A). Via's KT333 is already released, and the first board with it, a Gigabyte is available now. Other manufacturers KT333 boards will be available within a week or so in the states. So I'm not quite sure why you think it impossible for AMD to make 166mhz FSB chips. It is simply a matter of lowering the multiplier. Any Athlon XP can be unlocked and run @ 166mhz FSB, and much higher. It's just a matter of official support from AMD.

 

[Siddhartha]

This end of the world for AMD thread reminds me of the sort of posts people were writing when Intel went to an on die cache before AMD and had a speed advantage for a short period of time.

AMD will come out with a competitive product, in terms of cost and performance, in a couple of months. Only the enthusiast overclocks their sytems which makes this Intel advantage unmportant for the average consumer. For most people the AMD vs Intel comparision is a XP1700+($124) vs a P4 1.6A gHz($141) (Newegg.com). If you did not overclock which cpu would you choose?

 

[Sunner]

Insane3D, I have a feeling what he was referring to is the fact that there's no official JEDEC spec for PC2700, unlike PC2100.

 

[PlatinumGold]

For most people the AMD vs Intel comparision is a XP1700+($124) vs a P4 1.6A gHz($141) (Newegg.com). If you did not overclock which cpu would you choose?

dr. smooth

check out my sig. i have both cpus side by side. if i had it to do over again, i'd buy 2 1.6a's even when not overclocked it feels faster, boots faster, loads programs faster. the amd may game faster ( i dont' know as i'm not a heavy gamer, starcraft is only game i play right now) but for what i do day to day the intel is faster.

 

[Sid03]

<< Insane3D, I have a feeling what he was referring to is the fact that there's no official JEDEC spec for PC2700, unlike PC2100. >>

also i was saying that ddr333 still cannot be produced in the quantities necessary to release a cpu that required it.

so why in the world would amd produce a chip that required memory that had no standard and is still in (relatively) short supply? it'll probably be 2003 before ddr333 is ready for the mainstream. that is if anyone still cares about ddr333 then.

 

[Jsnmaj]

AMD is the leader in price/performance, clock speed for clock speed AMD mops the floor with Intel. Intel right now is only slightly ahead of AMD, but it will be short lived. When the hammer comes out AMD will be back on top again for awhile.

On tom's hardware he reviewed the fastest chips for AMD and Intel, and overclocked the crap out of them. In his closing statements he said for an AMD chip to be faster than the Intel 3ghz chip it would have to be clocked at 1966ghz. One full gigahertz less and it's faster. AMD makes a excellent product.

 

[AGodspeed]

<<

<< The low/mid-range server market and Unix markets have and likely always will be the big cash cows for AMD and Intel. >>

Server market a cash cow for AMD? Since when? You're right. I was speaking in terms of the future for AMD, and the present and future for Intel.



<< << second off... since they don't have much in the way of businesses and oems, the enthusiast crowd is a huge demographic for amd. so yes, the northwood is hurting them. >>

Put simply, you're completely off. AMD's biggest OEM support comes from Compaq, which is second only to Dell in PC OEM sales (CPQ sells a good amount of AMD based desktops and laptops). HP also strongly supports AMD, with desktops and laptops based on their processors. There's also loads of support from other smaller OEMs, like XiComputer, MicronPC, Monarch Computers, etc etc. >>

And guess what's happening. Due to most major businesses being uncomfortable with the impending Compaq/HP merger, and the uncertainty that this creates for future service/warranty service, these major businesses are ditching HP and Compaq boxes like hot potatoes and replacing them with DELL boxes. The major integrators/services companies like EDS are also ditching Compaq for DELL. My company alone has ditched well over 25K Compaq Athlon boxes since just the first of the year, all of them replaced with DELLs. >>



Well, it's hard to say if Compaq/HP's sales are being very greatly affected by the merger proposal. Really, Dell is simply doing a fantastic job executing and their core business model allows them to fiercely compete on a price level, which is always a good thing. Their products are solid, and so that's obviously worth something. However, you probably shouldn?t assume that this merger proposal will go on much longer, because it won?t.

But still, you're assuming that Dell is never going to start selling AMD-based processor systems. If Compaq and HP sell AMD-based systems, then why wouldn't Dell? CPQ and HP's relationship with Intel is MUCH closer than with Dell. CPQ works very closely with HP and Intel on IA-64 projects, not to mention that CPQ sold their entire Alpha team to Intel. HP helped Intel with the massive IA-64 R&D project (still ongoing obviously). Dell, well Dell just has a good PC market relationship with Intel, which is nothing compared to server markets relationships Intel has with CPQ and HP.

Btw, my mother works in a law firm in L.A. that has been using CPQ desktops and servers for 10 years straight....

 

[Athlon4all]

IMHO, the reason Dell is so afraid to use AMD in their systems is because of AMD chipsets. Dell's Service, Support and Reliability are number one for PC Makers, chipsets are one of the most important parts of a system, especially in overall Stability and Reliability and if you look at history, they have always used Intel Chipsets no matter what the situation. Like for example, they didn't have a AGP SDRAM 133fsb P3 system until 815's launch, pre-815, all their systems were 820+RDRAM or 810+non-133fsb, and more recently, they didn't have a DDR P4 system before 845-D and as it is now, they are not using SiS 645, and also further, you wanna know why all their P4 systems have GF2 MX's (not a bad thing but that's not the point)? Because there's no 845G and they won't use SiS 650 because it's not an Intel chipset.

I truthfully, am very hopeful (but not optimistic) that Dell will use Hammer in their systems because the North Bridge minus AGP Controller is an AMD chipset, which I think is at the same level as Intel's, but still the reason I'm not optimistic is because you're still gonna have a VIA, ALi, SiS, or nVidia South Bridge which really, I think is really what is hurting VIA, and ALi. SiS, well I think they are very solid, and nVidia I am very impressed with as well.

edit:

<< Could be but my bet is that Dell doesn't want to piss off Intel by pushing AMD products. >>

I agree that it could be that as well.

 

[JellyBaby]

<< IMHO, the reason Dell is so afraid to use AMD in their systems is because of AMD chipsets. >>

Could be but my bet is that Dell doesn't want to piss off Intel by pushing AMD products.

 

[Sid03]

<< Could be but my bet is that Dell doesn't want to piss off Intel by pushing AMD products. >>

my bet is they don't need to go amd. their systems are very competitively priced, and they seem to be making money, so they probably don't see the need to complicate things (more vendors, more support issues, etc) by adding another product line.

"if it ain't broke, don't fix it", would be my motto if i ran dell.

granted, there has to be foresight (as that motto is quite simplistic), and things might change with hammer. but for now, i don't see what the incentive would be for dell to start carrying athlons.

 

[jcmkk]

PlatinumGold - The only problem with your comparison of the two CPUs is that you are using a slow motherboard with the Athlon XP. You would see much greater performance with a KT266A. I've used both too, and AMD was faster.

 

[chiwawa626]

<< Is the End for the AMD Really NEAR?? >>


Hey if cyrix is still selling...anything can happen

 

[JeremiahTheGreat]

*looks at the spanking Hammer on Anandtech's front page*



<< Is the End for the AMD Really NEAR?? >>



would anyone care to restate this

 

[BFG10K]

" Well, with Intel's new 133mhz fsb part's, it dosent look like the Athlon has a fighting chance against the P4, not even with a new .13u die. The Athlon has changed so much since it's Soket-A intro., and from what I can tell, AMD has tweaked the life out of the Athlon with it's XP core, just like Intel did with the P3. Is their still life left in the Athlon?, if so how much longer do you think it will last?. What will AMD replace the Athlon core with?. "

Oh come on now, there are a lot of things wrong with this statement:

(1) 133 MHz FSB P4s aren't going to be out until May-June. By that time AMD should have easily released the Thoroughbred core which will run on a cooler 0.13 um process and enable them to ramp up clock speeds.

(2) Don't forget about the Hammer, a 64 bit CPU with impressive features and the ability to run 32 bit programs natively with no speed hit.