Is the CPU development speed slowing down? Where's Westmere?

[GundamF91]

Almost a couple of years ago, C2Q was all the rage, the mythical Nehalem seems to be a second coming, and AMD appeared to be mortally wounded taking its last breath. If we were to follow the Intel roadmap, we should be hearing more about Westmere about now. Does it appear that Intel has slowed its tick tock cycle? We're not really seeing i5, and I can't imagine Westmere coming out to take the steam from Nehalem line.

 

[TuxDave]

Intel.... slowing down its design cycle. I wish.

<-- needs more sleep.

 

[Idontcare]

Lately (past 3 yrs) Intel debuts their new processors in November, so we don't expect to see westmere till mid-Nov.

Regarding "hear more about it" if you think back, all the way back to Core's debut in 2006 (Kentsfield was Nov 2006) we really didn't hear too much about Core, Penryn, or Nehalem prior to their debut's.

There were a few leaked screenies and a handful of benches that got snuck out by Anand and others, but nothing that really told the whole story or even the right story about what was coming.

I don't expect to see anything relating to useful westmere benches until Aug timeframe, and westmere itself wouldn't be released till mid-Nov. (remember unless the westmere benches come from a production-ready mobo and cpu the numbers are pretty much useless for us end-users no matter how early they are leaked, assuming they are legitimate and not photoshopped)

 

[heyheybooboo]

Will the initial Westmere package include a gpu?

 

[imported_Scoop]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Will the initial Westmere package include a gpu?

I don't think so. Isn't it supposed to debut with the hexacore high-end part?

 

[aigomorla]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

There were a few leaked screenies and a handful of benches that got snuck out by Anand and others, but nothing that really told the whole story or even the right story about what was coming.

:X

wait am i included in this statement?

 

[nerp]

Global chip sales are still hurting and the recovery is going slow. I think it makes sense for manufacturers in general to take a little more time before flooding the marketplace with new product.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Will the initial Westmere package include a gpu?

Yes.

Originally posted by: Scoop

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Will the initial Westmere package include a gpu?

I don't think so. Isn't it supposed to debut with the hexacore high-end part?

That's gulftown and it isn't to debut until Q1 or Q2 of 2010.

 

[Denithor]

Originally posted by: Idontcare
Regarding "hear more about it" if you think back, all the way back to Core's debut in 2006 (Kentsfield was Nov 2006) we really didn't hear too much about Core, Penryn, or Nehalem prior to their debut's.

There were a few leaked screenies and a handful of benches that got snuck out by Anand and others, but nothing that really told the whole story or even the right story about what was coming.

The biggest sign of what was coming was something I found completely confusing when it happened - Apple announcing they were switching to Intel x86 chips in their systems. They announced the change about a month or six weeks before Core 2 NDA was lifted. At the time I remember thinking "WTF?!? AMD has more powerful chips with much better energy efficiency - why the hell didn't Apple partner with them? Intel for crying out loud - with their craptastic Netbust architecture!"

Then Core 2 was unleashed on the market like a tsunami and the change made perfect sense.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Denithor

Originally posted by: Idontcare
Regarding "hear more about it" if you think back, all the way back to Core's debut in 2006 (Kentsfield was Nov 2006) we really didn't hear too much about Core, Penryn, or Nehalem prior to their debut's.

There were a few leaked screenies and a handful of benches that got snuck out by Anand and others, but nothing that really told the whole story or even the right story about what was coming.

The biggest sign of what was coming was something I found completely confusing when it happened - Apple announcing they were switching to Intel x86 chips in their systems. They announced the change about a month or six weeks before Core 2 NDA was lifted. At the time I remember thinking "WTF?!? AMD has more powerful chips with much better energy efficiency - why the hell didn't Apple partner with them? Intel for crying out loud - with their craptastic Netbust architecture!"

Then Core 2 was unleashed on the market like a tsunami and the change made perfect sense.

+1

Yep, my mind was trapped into thinking about that information in very much the same manner.

Although I had more information regarding the root of their dissatisfaction with their cpu provider at the time (fishkill 90nm process was just dreadfully bad, low yields, low clockspeeds, high leakage, just an aweful time to be a customer of that foundry) it still didn't answer the "why Intel and not AMD" question.

Having learned that lesson, I am now keen to apply it to high-profile rendering houses that are being vocal over their assessment and preference of Intel's Larrabee for future rendering farms and the like. Sure its ALL marketing, but sometimes there is viable information to be extracted from it, as the case with Apple highlights.

 

[imported_Scoop]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Will the initial Westmere package include a gpu?

Yes.

Originally posted by: Scoop

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Will the initial Westmere package include a gpu?

I don't think so. Isn't it supposed to debut with the hexacore high-end part?

That's gulftown and it isn't to debut until Q1 or Q2 of 2010.

Intel naming for the win... I'm pretty sure Gulftown is a Westmere as well.

But I guess I was wrong and it'll debut with a dualcore + gpu, namely Clarkdale.

 

[Tempered81]

E8xxx's 45nm Wolfdales and low-end 32nm Westmeres will supposedly be getting the same corei3 branding (if that tells you anything about performance). The fastest C2D's will be getting rebranded as i3's according to hardspell:

http://img.inpai.com.cn/articl...-944d-a26a9d1323ae.jpg

(could change between now and then) Westmeres will also be found in corei5 & i9.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Originally posted by: jaredpace
E8xxx's 45nm Wolfdales and low-end 32nm Westmeres will supposedly be getting the same corei3 branding (if that tells you anything about performance). The fastest C2D's will be getting rebranded as i3's according to hardspell:

http://img.inpai.com.cn/articl...-944d-a26a9d1323ae.jpg

(could change between now and then) Westmeres will also be found in corei5 & i9.

Core2Duo chips getting rebranded as Core i3s? Someone, stop the madness!!!

 

[hans007]

with the recession, chip companies are cutting prices and not selling as large a volume. they need to recover their capital costs before advancing to the next design or process node.

besides do you really need more right now?

hardware has outpaced software by a good amount since probably 2000.... i suppose it has allowed for lots of interpreted languages, and flash based video and such. intel's tick tock cycle is honestly much much faster than they were even 10 years ago at development.

 

[ilkhan]

actually the recession allows for vastly cheaper capital costs for the next node, assuming the company can afford it. The suppliers are hurting and will take less to get any orders. Thus the 7B or whatever that intel just dropped on 32nm.
And yeah, we weren't expecting 32nm until november anyway. clarkdale/arrandale in november, gulftown in Q1, and the xeon gulftown in Q2 (probably).

 

[hans007]

Originally posted by: ilkhan
actually the recession allows for vastly cheaper capital costs for the next node, assuming the company can afford it. The suppliers are hurting and will take less to get any orders. Thus the 7B or whatever that intel just dropped on 32nm.
And yeah, we weren't expecting 32nm until november anyway. clarkdale/arrandale in november, gulftown in Q1, and the xeon gulftown in Q2 (probably).

not exactly.

most of these companies still have to evaluate what the best use of the money is.

Given the credit situation, the ROI of a new process will not be as much even if costs less to implement.

Not to mention given that money is fairly tight they could have better uses for that money (seeing as intel is in the lead they really have no reason to push farther ahead as fast).

I mean if you were intel and you were kicking amd's ass, would you spend money to push farther ahead for no real advantage with possibily a very underutilized factory in the future (seeing as you would be making way more 32nm chips when demand is falling , given there is no demand for faster stuff right now).

Or would you be better off taking your cash horde, and buying other companies / moving into new fields, loaning the money out at high interest rate since the credit market is tight for corporate bonds.

Just having a giant pile of money doesn't mean they are going to build a factory as it might not be the best use of it. Their shareholders would wnat them to make the most fiscally prudent choice and I think that choice is... sell more 45nm stuff and ramp 32nm slowly. I'm sure given enough money they could push it out faster, but as i've said theres better uses for that money.

 

[soccerballtux]

Originally posted by: hans007

Originally posted by: ilkhan
actually the recession allows for vastly cheaper capital costs for the next node, assuming the company can afford it. The suppliers are hurting and will take less to get any orders. Thus the 7B or whatever that intel just dropped on 32nm.
And yeah, we weren't expecting 32nm until november anyway. clarkdale/arrandale in november, gulftown in Q1, and the xeon gulftown in Q2 (probably).

not exactly.

most of these companies still have to evaluate what the best use of the money is.

Given the credit situation, the ROI of a new process will not be as much even if costs less to implement.

Not to mention given that money is fairly tight they could have better uses for that money (seeing as intel is in the lead they really have no reason to push farther ahead as fast).

I mean if you were intel and you were kicking amd's ass, would you spend money to push farther ahead for no real advantage with possibily a very underutilized factory in the future (seeing as you would be making way more 32nm chips when demand is falling , given there is no demand for faster stuff right now).

Or would you be better off taking your cash horde, and buying other companies / moving into new fields, loaning the money out at high interest rate since the credit market is tight for corporate bonds.

Just having a giant pile of money doesn't mean they are going to build a factory as it might not be the best use of it. Their shareholders would wnat them to make the most fiscally prudent choice and I think that choice is... sell more 45nm stuff and ramp 32nm slowly. I'm sure given enough money they could push it out faster, but as i've said theres better uses for that money.

Shrinking node size one step makes the same chip 50% smaller. Cheaper, too. 50%? Not sure if it's that much, ask IDC, but the cost reduction is substantial. There is plenty of reason to move forward.

Personally, I think Intel came to the same conclusion I came to, they just beat me to it by about a month; and that forecast is that there will be inflation such that there could be a substantial decrease in opportunity cost of taking on debt. I'm leaning more towards stagflation thanks to Cap&Trade and (hope not) UHC, but in such a scenario, having your bottom line operating costs as low as possible is the the most important thing you can do to survive. If it's inflation, even better; you got the gear for free at the expense of the banks.

 

[Acanthus]

I would certainly say that performance has not improved much over the course of the last year.

Here's hoping we can see a more substantial launch this Nov.

Intel needs to "Conroe" the market again.

 

[soccerballtux]

Originally posted by: Acanthus
I would certainly say that performance has not improved much over the course of the last year.

Here's hoping we can see a more substantial launch this Nov.

Intel needs to "Conroe" the market again.

Personally, I hope not. I like having AMD around. Nobody really needs anything faster at the moment; I'm all for giving AMD a breather. I doubt we'll see another Conroe while AMD is behind; Intel has to maximize shareholder value.