My reasoning as follows:
1. Kinect 2 potential - This is a factor I've seen little discussed, yet to me it is THE 800lb. gorilla in the next gen room. With no practical limit on proessing power the Kinect 2 will be very fast, very accurate require much less distance to 'read' the room. From what I've read Microsoft appears to have cornered the patents most vital for successful implementation as a console controller ... if accurate, neither Sony nor Nintendo can successfully copy Microsofts hands free controller concept. If one considers what Kinect 2 will enable, this becomes critical.
Being able to precision read finger, wrist, hand, arm, body and facial movement in real time opens all but limitless control possibilities. Imagine a common base set of hand, wrist and arm positions and movements across all games and applications to access and control menus, pause, mute, go forward, go back and so on in games and applications, a common set of movements to reload, switch weapons, run, duck, turn, jump etc. in all games. Game develops can then add game specific gestures and commands ON TOP OF the array of common gestures and commands. This would fast become a compelling feature. If one THINKS ABOUT IT, there is nothing faster or more natural than hand movements alone controlling on screen movement. If the precision, nuance and speed is there, and why wouldn't it be, I can easily see the Kinect 2 becoming the twitch shooter controller of choice. And of course it makes viable for the first time true console vs. computer multiplayer games.
A child learning to play a fully fleshed out 'air' violin, guitar, drums, saxaphone etc. that can teach ACCURATE finger, wrist and arm placement and movements, what will be possible in two and three dimensional art creations, in cad-cam applications. With 3D glasses, Vanilla Sky graphics manipulation besomes possible. The potentials just go on and on. It just requires a little imagination and thought.
Microsoft has stated the Kinect is the cornerstone of their console strategy. They have now had YEARS to work on the programming and algorithms and with all the Windows 8 releases under their belt, are no doubt putting massive freed up programming resources into the Kinect 2. Expect to see press adjectives like 'astounding' 'mind blowing' 'incredible' and such like when it is demonstrated at E3.
It's easy to see Kinect 2 itself becoming the killer 'must have' next gen system seller.
2. THE MOTHER FACTOR ... why this gets so little recognition continues to astonish me. I KNEW Kinect would sell like hotcakes based on a very simple reality - mothers looking at a house with no more stepped on, fought over, broken and lost controllers ... THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS CANNOT BE OVERSTATED. Next year when the press is astounded by Kinect 2 demos and the word gets out on some of it's potential whatever sales the Ninento Wii U is enjoying will fall off a cliff and Sony, if Midrosoft patents (and it's got a lot of them) keep it from a comparable offering, will be in big trouble EVEN IF it manages to get their next gen console out the door by Xmas 2013. As for Nintendo ... WHAT WERE THEY THINKING??. When they saw the success of the Kinect and the WHY of that success, they should have dropped the concept of an expensive, easily breakable, eminently fight-over-able SINGLE controller like a red hot potato. It's an absolute guaranteed lead balloon idea with mothers everywhere. FAIL.
3. There is every indication Sony was caught with it's pants around it's ankles when word got out Microsoft was years into developing their next gen console for a 2013 release even as they continued to parrot Sony's 'ten year console cycle' and 'expect next gen in 2016 or so' mantra. The release and astounding success of the Kinect and it's future ramifications slammed the point home. Whatever exotic console plans it was working on requiring 2016 fabrication, processing power and software tools to be financially feasible had to be tossed and a far cheaper and doable near turnkey solution had to be found a.s.a.p. to keep them in the game AT ALL (enter AMD). Giving Microsoft a years lead with their unmatchable Kinect technology would be crippling, giving them a two year lead would be fatal. That coupled with Midrosofts tight integration with AMD and a point in those leaked Next Box documents brings us to ...
4. Faster Xbox console updates. That's what tight integration with an all AMD solution enables ... easy full future backward compatibility. That is what will enable Microsoft to make do with the technology available for a 2013 console release and simply update the technology in 2016 or 2017 ... if necessary. This puts Sony in a lose lose situation. If it manages a 2013 release it will be far less polished than what Microsoft will bring to the table, if it releases in 2014, Microsoft will have opened a massive sales lead and have an ever expanding and improving Kinect experience. If Sony decides to wait until 2015 to take advantage of the fabrication economies and processing power that will be available Microsoft can just release an Xbox 720 Turbo equivalent that will match or beat Sony. As long as full hardware backward compatibilty is baked into the pie and Xbox 720 and Xbox 720 Turbo versions of games continue being released, easily doable with all AMD hardware, particularly if it's APU based with HSA elements added, console buyers will be happy campers. That long term AMD alliance and probable Microsoft next gen console dominance brings us to ...
5. Nvidia. Tech Report had an article last week pointing out AMD has been quietly working in the backround pushing Gaming Evolved, it's TWIMTBP counterpart, and that almost all the upcoming AAA games will carry that Gaming Evolved sticker instead of the TWIMTBP sticker. Where this is headed is pretty obvious. Nvidia has no seat at all at the next gen console table. Chances are pretty good AMD has an agreement in place for it's 'AMD Gaming Evolved' sticker to appear on console games. With AMD graphics on ALL consoles and AMD CPUs on two of them, all console game developers will be working closely with AMD. Rory Read stated recently that gaming will be one of AMD"s cornerstones going into the future ... AMD is serious. For developers, sparing time and manhours to work with Nvidia for the PC version of their games that will carry the AMD Gaming Evolved sticker ... not going to be a priority. Nvidia is destined to become the red headed stepchild in gaming and can only fall further and further behind in the consumer graphics market and sooner or later they will abandon the space and concentrate on more profitable markets.
If Microsoft has indeed locked up vital patents on Kinect technology I can't see Nintendo surviving with them also so far behind with their online play, losing the home big screen fight on one end and losing the handheld portable fight to smart phones and tablets on the other. I expect Nintendo to become a pure software company making games across other hardware platforms. Sony, already in increasingly dire financial shape overall, desperately needs to succeed with their next gen console, competing in a multi billion market with only one other major conpetitor is a rare luxury for them these days. But from information to hand it appears Microsoft has achieved the advantage in every aspect of the next gen console wars with the single exception of first party IP, where it's more of a level playing field. But if they have no viable answer for Kinect 2, it's going to be a very rough road ahead. They may hang on, but with a considerably diminished market share.
So goes my conclusions extrapolating logically from data to hand that provides my answer to the question posed in the thread title.
Please don't yell
-ViRGE
1. Kinect 2 potential - This is a factor I've seen little discussed, yet to me it is THE 800lb. gorilla in the next gen room. With no practical limit on proessing power the Kinect 2 will be very fast, very accurate require much less distance to 'read' the room. From what I've read Microsoft appears to have cornered the patents most vital for successful implementation as a console controller ... if accurate, neither Sony nor Nintendo can successfully copy Microsofts hands free controller concept. If one considers what Kinect 2 will enable, this becomes critical.
Being able to precision read finger, wrist, hand, arm, body and facial movement in real time opens all but limitless control possibilities. Imagine a common base set of hand, wrist and arm positions and movements across all games and applications to access and control menus, pause, mute, go forward, go back and so on in games and applications, a common set of movements to reload, switch weapons, run, duck, turn, jump etc. in all games. Game develops can then add game specific gestures and commands ON TOP OF the array of common gestures and commands. This would fast become a compelling feature. If one THINKS ABOUT IT, there is nothing faster or more natural than hand movements alone controlling on screen movement. If the precision, nuance and speed is there, and why wouldn't it be, I can easily see the Kinect 2 becoming the twitch shooter controller of choice. And of course it makes viable for the first time true console vs. computer multiplayer games.
A child learning to play a fully fleshed out 'air' violin, guitar, drums, saxaphone etc. that can teach ACCURATE finger, wrist and arm placement and movements, what will be possible in two and three dimensional art creations, in cad-cam applications. With 3D glasses, Vanilla Sky graphics manipulation besomes possible. The potentials just go on and on. It just requires a little imagination and thought.
Microsoft has stated the Kinect is the cornerstone of their console strategy. They have now had YEARS to work on the programming and algorithms and with all the Windows 8 releases under their belt, are no doubt putting massive freed up programming resources into the Kinect 2. Expect to see press adjectives like 'astounding' 'mind blowing' 'incredible' and such like when it is demonstrated at E3.
It's easy to see Kinect 2 itself becoming the killer 'must have' next gen system seller.
2. THE MOTHER FACTOR ... why this gets so little recognition continues to astonish me. I KNEW Kinect would sell like hotcakes based on a very simple reality - mothers looking at a house with no more stepped on, fought over, broken and lost controllers ... THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS CANNOT BE OVERSTATED. Next year when the press is astounded by Kinect 2 demos and the word gets out on some of it's potential whatever sales the Ninento Wii U is enjoying will fall off a cliff and Sony, if Midrosoft patents (and it's got a lot of them) keep it from a comparable offering, will be in big trouble EVEN IF it manages to get their next gen console out the door by Xmas 2013. As for Nintendo ... WHAT WERE THEY THINKING??. When they saw the success of the Kinect and the WHY of that success, they should have dropped the concept of an expensive, easily breakable, eminently fight-over-able SINGLE controller like a red hot potato. It's an absolute guaranteed lead balloon idea with mothers everywhere. FAIL.
3. There is every indication Sony was caught with it's pants around it's ankles when word got out Microsoft was years into developing their next gen console for a 2013 release even as they continued to parrot Sony's 'ten year console cycle' and 'expect next gen in 2016 or so' mantra. The release and astounding success of the Kinect and it's future ramifications slammed the point home. Whatever exotic console plans it was working on requiring 2016 fabrication, processing power and software tools to be financially feasible had to be tossed and a far cheaper and doable near turnkey solution had to be found a.s.a.p. to keep them in the game AT ALL (enter AMD). Giving Microsoft a years lead with their unmatchable Kinect technology would be crippling, giving them a two year lead would be fatal. That coupled with Midrosofts tight integration with AMD and a point in those leaked Next Box documents brings us to ...
4. Faster Xbox console updates. That's what tight integration with an all AMD solution enables ... easy full future backward compatibility. That is what will enable Microsoft to make do with the technology available for a 2013 console release and simply update the technology in 2016 or 2017 ... if necessary. This puts Sony in a lose lose situation. If it manages a 2013 release it will be far less polished than what Microsoft will bring to the table, if it releases in 2014, Microsoft will have opened a massive sales lead and have an ever expanding and improving Kinect experience. If Sony decides to wait until 2015 to take advantage of the fabrication economies and processing power that will be available Microsoft can just release an Xbox 720 Turbo equivalent that will match or beat Sony. As long as full hardware backward compatibilty is baked into the pie and Xbox 720 and Xbox 720 Turbo versions of games continue being released, easily doable with all AMD hardware, particularly if it's APU based with HSA elements added, console buyers will be happy campers. That long term AMD alliance and probable Microsoft next gen console dominance brings us to ...
5. Nvidia. Tech Report had an article last week pointing out AMD has been quietly working in the backround pushing Gaming Evolved, it's TWIMTBP counterpart, and that almost all the upcoming AAA games will carry that Gaming Evolved sticker instead of the TWIMTBP sticker. Where this is headed is pretty obvious. Nvidia has no seat at all at the next gen console table. Chances are pretty good AMD has an agreement in place for it's 'AMD Gaming Evolved' sticker to appear on console games. With AMD graphics on ALL consoles and AMD CPUs on two of them, all console game developers will be working closely with AMD. Rory Read stated recently that gaming will be one of AMD"s cornerstones going into the future ... AMD is serious. For developers, sparing time and manhours to work with Nvidia for the PC version of their games that will carry the AMD Gaming Evolved sticker ... not going to be a priority. Nvidia is destined to become the red headed stepchild in gaming and can only fall further and further behind in the consumer graphics market and sooner or later they will abandon the space and concentrate on more profitable markets.
If Microsoft has indeed locked up vital patents on Kinect technology I can't see Nintendo surviving with them also so far behind with their online play, losing the home big screen fight on one end and losing the handheld portable fight to smart phones and tablets on the other. I expect Nintendo to become a pure software company making games across other hardware platforms. Sony, already in increasingly dire financial shape overall, desperately needs to succeed with their next gen console, competing in a multi billion market with only one other major conpetitor is a rare luxury for them these days. But from information to hand it appears Microsoft has achieved the advantage in every aspect of the next gen console wars with the single exception of first party IP, where it's more of a level playing field. But if they have no viable answer for Kinect 2, it's going to be a very rough road ahead. They may hang on, but with a considerably diminished market share.
So goes my conclusions extrapolating logically from data to hand that provides my answer to the question posed in the thread title.
Please don't yell
-ViRGE
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