Hayabusa Rider
Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
- Jan 26, 2000
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If they are disenfrachinsed, how do they vote?
Ok, I have to give you points on that one
If they are disenfrachinsed, how do they vote?
"So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say.
Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.
So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?
Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states. Even though they’re still voting in California, obviously Obama is going to win it (55). And equally obviously, he’s going to win Washington (12) and Oregon (7), where neither side even bothered to spend a dime. Throw in Hawaii (4). Those 78 votes haul Obama up to 260. That’s something to keep in mind for election night: Whatever Obama’s number is at 10 pm Eastern, add those 78 EV’s—they’re a mortal lock, and a hefty insurance policy. If he wins Nevada (6) and Colorado (9), it’s over.
In other words, Obama can lose the big Eastern four—Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida: all of ’em!—and still be reelected.
And barring some huge cataclysm, he’s not losing all four of those states. If he wins even one—say Virginia, the smallest of the four—then Romney has to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire; all possible, certainly, but all states where he has been behind, narrowly but consistently, for weeks or months."
http://news.yahoo.com/coming-obama-landslide-025409605.html
Obama supporters should rejoice: If the older left leaning Justices are smart, they'll retire and Obama will get young ones in that'll be there for a long time.
Because of which states are in play, short of a dead girl or a live boy Obama has no way of losing the Electorial college and will either comfortably win or route Romney.
The question isn't if Romney will lose the Electorial college this fall, it's by how much.
That is "our" plan:sneaky:
Is it true Obama will win the election by landslide?
I keep hearing from general public that no one takes Romney/Ryan seriously.
Is this true?
I know P&N can get very biased, but do republicans generally agree?
Not possible due to the Electoral College
It will be close and at this point a clear win for Romney.
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0wqnr0no0orwnxn
Not possible due to the Electoral College
It will be close and at this point a clear win for Romney.
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0wqnr0no0orwnxn
Well...let me guess... do the disenfranchised want a millionaire who wants to give his buddies more tax breaks? or someone who is trying to realistically deal with issues...
There's still a ton of money to be spent.
There's still a ton of money to be spent.
Yep, we agree and there's no need for Democrats to get out and vote.
:thumbsup:
it's worth mentioning when looking at current polls that the Obama campaign's strategy has been to try and bury Romney in the summer... Romney, otoh, has been waiting until now-ish to start unloading his funds (and has been out-fund raising Obama lately, so he may have more money to spend overall).
so for the past couple months, there's been a huge spending disparity that will disappear by the time the conventions are over... this won't be like 2008 where Obama can outspend his rival by 2:1 and coast to a landslide victory.
No chance of a "landslide," even if the economy continues to trend upward as the past 3 weeks suggest, versus going back to the April-June doldrums. Best case is a 4-point popular vote margin. Worse case is Romney wins it by a point. A 2-3 point Obama victory margin is pretty much in the bread basket of the probability curve here.