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Is it true Obama will win the election by landslide?

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Anarchist420

Diamond Member
Feb 13, 2010
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We'll never know the popular vote and I guess romney could become president. However, I'll be at least somewhat surprised if there is a usual election this time as a lot can happen between now and November.

The Republican party could've picked dr. Paul and they wouldn't have to worry about Obama anymore, but they chose to worry about obama. Dr. Paul would easily beat Obama by a popular vote margin of 2-1, in favor of the former. Exposing obama's warfare, his police state, and his corporatism are something only dr. Paul could do... Romney can't and he is a bad choice because of that.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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A thread I created previously: http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2262130&highlight=electoral+college+destiny
"So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say.

Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.

So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?

Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states. Even though they’re still voting in California, obviously Obama is going to win it (55). And equally obviously, he’s going to win Washington (12) and Oregon (7), where neither side even bothered to spend a dime. Throw in Hawaii (4). Those 78 votes haul Obama up to 260. That’s something to keep in mind for election night: Whatever Obama’s number is at 10 pm Eastern, add those 78 EV’s—they’re a mortal lock, and a hefty insurance policy. If he wins Nevada (6) and Colorado (9), it’s over.

In other words, Obama can lose the big Eastern four—Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida: all of ’em!—and still be reelected.

And barring some huge cataclysm, he’s not losing all four of those states. If he wins even one—say Virginia, the smallest of the four—then Romney has to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire; all possible, certainly, but all states where he has been behind, narrowly but consistently, for weeks or months."


http://news.yahoo.com/coming-obama-landslide-025409605.html
On a relative basis, if Florida is a dead heat, that can't be good for Romney.

If we start hearing that Obama is truly competitive in North Carolina, then I might start thinking landslide.

Overall, I'd say baseline is 303 electoral votes, bumping up to 332 if Florida goes to Obama.
 
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nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,826
83
91
I think Obama will win.

in terms of the popular vote, I doubt it will be a landslide.

of course, every politician ever has declared a 1% win as a "landslide mandate from the American people," so take that with a grain of salt.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
17,197
4,844
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Because of which states are in play, short of a dead girl or a live boy Obama has no way of losing the Electorial college and will either comfortably win or route Romney.

The question isn't if Romney will lose the Electorial college this fall, it's by how much.
I like that phrase but essentially that's what it would take to knock out the big O at this point.

I'm even surprised at the volume of negative reaction to Ryan being the VP pick. Has there even been a bump? Any polling out the yet?
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,164
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No chance of a "landslide," even if the economy continues to trend upward as the past 3 weeks suggest, versus going back to the April-June doldrums. Best case is a 4-point popular vote margin. Worse case is Romney wins it by a point. A 2-3 point Obama victory margin is pretty much in the bread basket of the probability curve here.
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,038
36
86
Hahaha, so true. Romney should just pack it up, Dave has cast his prediction, which means, statistically, the parties over. :D
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
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delete (I read the electoral map projection above wrong).
 
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PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,652
199
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Well...let me guess... do the disenfranchised want a millionaire who wants to give his buddies more tax breaks? or someone who is trying to realistically deal with issues...
I'm sorry, neither one of those candidates is running this time. :D
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,826
83
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There's still a ton of money to be spent.
:thumbsup:

it's worth mentioning when looking at current polls that the Obama campaign's strategy has been to try and bury Romney in the summer... Romney, otoh, has been waiting until now-ish to start unloading his funds (and has been out-fund raising Obama lately, so he may have more money to spend overall).

so for the past couple months, there's been a huge spending disparity that will disappear by the time the conventions are over... this won't be like 2008 where Obama can outspend his rival by 2:1 and coast to a landslide victory.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
17,197
4,844
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There's still a ton of money to be spent.
That's the scary part. We've already seen the first swift boat style attack. I'm sure this won't be the last. My only hope it the the public is starting to become jaded about political ads in general and will stop paying attention to them and think for themselves. Well, it's just a hope.
 
Aug 23, 2000
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:thumbsup:

it's worth mentioning when looking at current polls that the Obama campaign's strategy has been to try and bury Romney in the summer... Romney, otoh, has been waiting until now-ish to start unloading his funds (and has been out-fund raising Obama lately, so he may have more money to spend overall).

so for the past couple months, there's been a huge spending disparity that will disappear by the time the conventions are over... this won't be like 2008 where Obama can outspend his rival by 2:1 and coast to a landslide victory.
Kinda like the irony. The Obama campaign and supporters are complaining that Romney will just outspend the Obama campaign. Meanwhile the Obama campaign of 08 was the most costly campaign in history.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
16,009
1,678
126
No chance of a "landslide," even if the economy continues to trend upward as the past 3 weeks suggest, versus going back to the April-June doldrums. Best case is a 4-point popular vote margin. Worse case is Romney wins it by a point. A 2-3 point Obama victory margin is pretty much in the bread basket of the probability curve here.
It seems like the country is far too polarized for a landslide at this point, whatever happens between now and November.
 

CountZero

Golden Member
Jul 10, 2001
1,797
36
86
Romney can win if he can spend at least 2:1 against Obama (super PACs included). I don't believe, especially after the Ryan pick, that this is an election riding on swing voters. It is about energizing the base and that is about riling them up via spending on events and ads. I think this is also why this has been such a negative campaign. More spending will energize more of the base but will do nothing much for swing voters.

Neither candidate is an unknown at this point. Even without debates you know where these guys stand, you know their strengths and weaknesses, you know their general plans. If you are a swing voter I can't fathom being undecided at this point, the facts are already out there either way.
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,038
36
86
I'm undecided. I seriously do not know which way I will vote: Obama, Romney, or Other; and I realize a vote for Other is basically a vote for Obama.

For someone not a Dem or Rep, this is not an easy election to vote in...
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
Obama will win in a ridiculous landslide.

Romney will begin to look like the joke he is once Obama is there to rebut his ridiculous lies to his face.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
Interesting point regarding base turnout scenario, but if you use the 2008 baseline, unless there is massive voter suppression and disinterest / disillusionment on the part of Obama's supporters, he at least squeaks by, and most likely blows Romney out in electoral college: http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/5780/







At least where I live (Hampton Roads, Virginia), the Romney ads I see on tv are either 1) designed to rev up base by creating hate of Obama, or 2) trying to convince swing voters who voted for Obama in 2008 to say he didn't deliver what he promised, so choose someone else.

Don't know what it is like in other tv markets that are swing states in play this cycle, but it sounds like Romney needs those disillusioned Obama voters from 2008 to give him a chance just to be competitive to try and steal a very close election in the end...

Just watch the ads Romney and his superpacs release. If you see lots of ads targeted specifically at people who voted for Obama in 2008 (he promised the world, etc...), then he probably needs Europe and / or China to fall apart to such a degree that massive QE3 has to be implemented before the election and fury against the previous bailouts rears its ugly head again.





edit: Commentary I saw on PBS Washington Week about a month ago said most voters have locked in their choices and won't change and that there is a thin sliver of voters across all of the swing states who will determine election. And it may be specific metro areas within swing states, such as Columbus Ohio metro and Richmond Virginia metro (guessing perhaps Miami metro area, too?).

Would be interested to hear what type of spending is taking place there and mix of Romney ads designed to rev up base vs. appeal to swing voters who voted for Obama in 2008.
 
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