I try to follow this stuff, read AVSforum, etc, but I have been sitting on my hands waiting on a new video card, a LONG time. My last three cards I bought cheap used, this PC has a Radeon 9200 128 mb, and we have a 7500, a 7000, and I think my wife has a voodoo 3500, so I am actually ready for a new card. OTOH I should add that nothing we currently do seems limited by the video cards in our respective systems.
HDCP for all the bumps right now, still stands a VERY good chance of being the gateway requirement for display of HD content, and I am not worred about HD DVD or BlueRay which I am in no hurry to start buying, but downloaded content, maybe even for timeshifting or placeshifting cable sourced content. I want a mainstream, not premium, video card that has HDCP and supports hardware acceleration of HD material, plus does a decent job with most games at a HD setting (1920x1080).
We are about to get a HD TV, most likely something close to the Toshiba 62HM195 with native 1920x1080, and I haven't decided yet if I want a powerfull HTPC that I can play some games on, or if I should build two systems a low power, low noise HTPC running basically nothing else, and more general use gaming system.