Is it finally time (for those who haven't) to crack open the champagne?

[StageLeft]

Bernanke says economy on cusp of recovery (yes, I know he's screwed up before).

July existing homes sales pace fastest in 2 years

More and more companies able to beat profit expectations (front page currently has JM Smucker and ann taylor)

I'm aware of the bear arguments and a lot of them make sense, but the stock market is continuing to go up at a solid clip. Oh, oil is also up to $74, the highest this year after a pretty aggressive ramp up in the past several days.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

It might be a cyclic uptick, but the overall trend for this decade has been downward. Imagine a sine wave propagating along a downward slope. The United States no longer has the economic foundation needed to be able to maintain a large and strong middle class nor to remain a first world country as a result of the economic force of Global Labor Arbitrage. Population explosion and its resulting increase in the strength of Malthusian Forces--fewer resources per capita and thus higher prices for them--isn't helping either. Perhaps the wealthy will be able to transfer more wealth from the lower classes to themselves, and perhaps that's what the stock market uptick indicates, but it isn't an indicator of a healthy or recovering economy.

 

[StageLeft]

WhipperSnapper, if the overall trend is for a downward, surely the US will still be at or near the head of the pack. The forces working against its recovery and strength are working against all first world nations, and among them it is still the strongest. A redefinition of first world is possible, but the US will still be in it.

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Bernanke says economy on cusp of recovery (yes, I know he's screwed up before).

July existing homes sales pace fastest in 2 years

More and more companies able to beat profit expectations (front page currently has JM Smucker and ann taylor)

I'm aware of the bear arguments and a lot of them make sense, but the stock market is continuing to go up at a solid clip. Oh, oil is also up to $74, the highest this year after a pretty aggressive ramp up in the past several days.

I suspect we are at the bottom and should see an upturn in the next quarter or two. (IMO)

Housing sales are fast because they are cheap. Once that inventory is reduced, we should see an increase in new house starts.

Commercial real estate/construction is still a worry. Credit cards I think will be fine as it looks like people are paying down pretty aggressively. I was really concerned about that one for a while but we might dodge a bullet.

 

[Titan]

Great trick that they pulled, double the money supply and then the economy improves short term. Everyone is happy because the numbers "improve" then down the road inflation slowly takes hold, and equivalent recovery is a dow of 20,000.

 

[StageLeft]

Credit cards I think will be fine as it looks like people are paying down pretty aggressively. I was really concerned about that one for a while but we might dodge a bullet.

Me, too, but in the grand scheme they are just not a huge amount of debt for people in America, not like housing. IIRC it's only something like a trillion in credit card debt outstanding in total, which is only a few thousand per person, so even with huge default rates it's not the end of the world.

Yep, google tells me it's a touch shy of $1 trillion, with about 2.5T in total consumer debt. I presume most of the difference is cars.

 

[Moonbeam]

I thought the economy is up because people are buying survival gear for their compounds.

I just learned now to flake an arrowhead from the bottom of a beer bottle. Who woulda thunk that possible or that you just use a nail to get the bottom in one piece. We are surrounded by some clever Cro-Magnons if you ask me. I especially love the fact that all kinds of important survival data is right there on the Internet where I can get it quick of civilization quits on me.

 

[Hacp]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I thought the economy is up because people are buying survival gear for their compounds.

I just learned now to flake an arrowhead from the bottom of a beer bottle. Who woulda thunk that possible or that you just use a nail to get the bottom in one piece. We are surrounded by some clever Cro-Magnons if you ask me. I especially love the fact that all kinds of important survival data is right there on the Internet where I can get it quick of civilization quits on me.

I stocked up on canned goods and a taser.

 

[MovingTarget]

Originally posted by: Hacp

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I thought the economy is up because people are buying survival gear for their compounds.

I just learned now to flake an arrowhead from the bottom of a beer bottle. Who woulda thunk that possible or that you just use a nail to get the bottom in one piece. We are surrounded by some clever Cro-Magnons if you ask me. I especially love the fact that all kinds of important survival data is right there on the Internet where I can get it quick of civilization quits on me.

I stocked up on canned goods and a taser.

A taser? You pussy...

It is good to have a small stockpile of emergency supplies (food/potable water) and a weapon....thats SOP down here during hurricane season. We just add chainsaws to that...

 

[Moonbeam]

I am watching the economy closely. As soon as I am sure we are in a recovery I'm going to buy funeral home stock. I predict the suicide deaths of millions of depressed Republicans if Obama is able to save the nation from the Bush disaster these self hating bastards voted for and unconsciously hoped would destroy it. I just hope we don't have a health care bill by the time the attempted and failed wind up in the emergency rooms. I don't want my tax dollars going to revive that garbage.

 

[Slew Foot]

The economy revived itself like it always does. If you had to give a president credit, it would have to be Bush since his is the only stimulus thats actually kicked in yet.

 

[ProfJohn]

The economy may be on the verge of a recovery, but all indications have been that we are in for a very slow recovery and Obama is doing nothing to change that trend.

Too much government spending and raising taxes will result in a very slow recovery that might not even feel like a recovery.

 

[Pliablemoose]

The 1st time homebuyer tax credit expires in Nov, it may have a cooling effect on the housing market.

We shall see, I jumped off the defensive bandwagon, and have some sell stops in place.

If energy costs ramp up, it'll hose the recovery.

 

[NeoV]

"The economy may be on the verge of a recovery, but all indications have been that we are in for a very slow recovery and Obama is doing nothing to change that trend.

Too much government spending and raising taxes will result in a very slow recovery that might not even feel like a recovery. "



Was wondering how you were going to spin this....

 

[Blackjack200]

I thought about making this thread as I've seen people eulogizing the recession all over the internet, and even some articles in the paper today.

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The economy may be on the verge of a recovery, but all indications have been that we are in for a very slow recovery and Obama is doing nothing to change that trend.

Too much government spending and raising taxes will result in a very slow recovery that might not even feel like a recovery.

lol, the other way you could spin it would be to say that in 2001-2002 the recovery was too rapid, and set us up for this recession.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Hacp

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I thought the economy is up because people are buying survival gear for their compounds.

I just learned now to flake an arrowhead from the bottom of a beer bottle. Who woulda thunk that possible or that you just use a nail to get the bottom in one piece. We are surrounded by some clever Cro-Magnons if you ask me. I especially love the fact that all kinds of important survival data is right there on the Internet where I can get it quick of civilization quits on me.

I stocked up on canned goods and a taser.

The canned goods so you never have to leave your basement and the taser for your masochistic enjoyment?

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
I thought about making this thread as I've seen people eulogizing the recession all over the internet, and even some articles in the paper today.

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The economy may be on the verge of a recovery, but all indications have been that we are in for a very slow recovery and Obama is doing nothing to change that trend.

Too much government spending and raising taxes will result in a very slow recovery that might not even feel like a recovery.

lol, the other way you could spin it would be to say that in 2001-2002 the recovery was too rapid, and set us up for this recession.

The 2001-2002 recovery was very slow actually.

Awesome source for GDP growth by quater since 1947.
Recent recoveries:
1983 GDP growth by quarter
5%
9%
8%
8%
8% - 1984
7%
4%
3%

1992 recovery
4.4%
4.3%
4.1%
4.2%
.7% - 1993
2.5%
2.1%
5%

2002 recovery
3.4%
2.1%
2%
.08%
1.6% - 2003
3.2%
6.8%
3.6%

So of the last three recoveries the 2002 was by far the worst.

 

[Blackjack200]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
I thought about making this thread as I've seen people eulogizing the recession all over the internet, and even some articles in the paper today.

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The economy may be on the verge of a recovery, but all indications have been that we are in for a very slow recovery and Obama is doing nothing to change that trend.

Too much government spending and raising taxes will result in a very slow recovery that might not even feel like a recovery.

lol, the other way you could spin it would be to say that in 2001-2002 the recovery was too rapid, and set us up for this recession.

The 2001-2002 recovery was very slow actually.

Awesome source for GDP growth by quater since 1947.
Recent recoveries:
1983 GDP growth by quarter
5%
9%
8%
8%
8% - 1984
7%
4%
3%

1992 recovery
4.4%
4.3%
4.1%
4.2%
.7% - 1993
2.5%
2.1%
5%

2002 recovery
3.4%
2.1%
2%
.08%
1.6% - 2003
3.2%
6.8%
3.6%

So of the last three recoveries the 2002 was by far the worst.

This is not worth arguing as it's been frequently suggested by others. Maybe "rapid" was the wrong word but many feel that because the slowdown in 2001 was very mild, and the economy was not allowed to contract enough, systemic problems in the economy were not addressed.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Just like car sales are up due to the infusion of cash by the government; housing sales may also be up due to the tax credit hanging out on the line.

While it is more than 6 months away, the Q1 of 2010 will provide a better view. AT that point the artificial stimulus $$ being fed into the system right now for two main consumer will have cleared out.

Q4 for the automotive will also provide a better snapshot unless the Clunker program is extended.

It will be also interesting when Q1 rolls around to see how much the repo business has picked up from the Clunker program?

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Credit cards I think will be fine as it looks like people are paying down pretty aggressively. I was really concerned about that one for a while but we might dodge a bullet.

Me, too, but in the grand scheme they are just not a huge amount of debt for people in America, not like housing. IIRC it's only something like a trillion in credit card debt outstanding in total, which is only a few thousand per person, so even with huge default rates it's not the end of the world.

Yep, google tells me it's a touch shy of $1 trillion, with about 2.5T in total consumer debt. I presume most of the difference is cars.

There is far more private debt than that, and it's a serious problem; it skyrocketed more than public debt has for years. Read Kevin Phillips' Bad Money, I very much recommend.

 

[Fingolfin269]

I will do my best to help by purchasing a big ass tv tonight. Been holding off long enough...

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
I thought about making this thread as I've seen people eulogizing the recession all over the internet, and even some articles in the paper today.

Perhaps they're hoping that with enough optimistic happy talk, consumer confidence will rise and people will start purchasing consumer goods. However, wealth first needs to be produced before it can be consumed and people can't spend money if they are unemployed or underemployed and since we sent millions of jobs overseas or replaced Americans with foreigners on work visas, fewer and fewer Americans have middle class jobs.

 

[JS80]

Since when has what Bernanke has said ever been true?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I am watching the economy closely.

As soon as I am sure we are in a recovery I'm going to buy funeral home stock.

I predict the suicide deaths of millions of depressed Republicans if Obama is able to save the nation from the Bush disaster these self hating bastards voted for and unconsciously hoped would destroy it.


I just hope we don't have a health care bill by the time the attempted and failed wind up in the emergency rooms.

I don't want my tax dollars going to revive that garbage.

Awesome :thumbsup:

 

[her209]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
I thought about making this thread as I've seen people eulogizing the recession all over the internet, and even some articles in the paper today.

Perhaps they're hoping that with enough optimistic happy talk, consumer confidence will rise and people will start purchasing consumer goods. However, wealth first needs to be produced before it can be consumed and people can't spend money if they are unemployed or underemployed and since we sent millions of jobs overseas or replaced Americans with foreigners on work visas, fewer and fewer Americans have middle class jobs.

Who is "we"?