Indeed, the current U.S.-China trade imbalance is mostly a function of regional economic trends that benefit U.S. consumers with lower prices on everything from bras to laptops. Even if Beijing acceded to Washington's demands to immediately revalue its currency and comply with all WTO obligations, U.S-Chinese trade would remain lopsided for years, economists say.
"If China did everything exactly right ... people would be disappointed in terms of what the trade deficit would be. It might be slightly smaller," says Nicholas Lardy of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.
Lardy estimates that a 20% reduction in the value of the Chinese yuan, about the midpoint of critics' overvaluation claims, would trim $10 billion from the trade gap. If eliminating all protectionist measures produced a similar gain, the remaining deficit still would be enormous.
Likewise, recent high-profile Chinese agreements to buy more Boeing-made airplanes and to allow the import of 15,000 American-made cars will do little to shrink the shortfall. And the Bush administration's decision to slap quotas on fast-rising imports of Chinese-made textiles may spawn domestic political benefits, but it will barely register in the trade account.
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The first steps went smoothly. Even before formally joining the WTO, China had begun reducing import tariffs, making goods from other countries more affordable. From a peak of 55% in the early days of China's economic opening, the average tariff has plunged to 11.5%. That has benefited U.S. companies such as Motorola, which expected to save $80 million in China's first year of WTO membership.
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Still, the discontent shouldn't be overstated. Buried in the fine print of a 179-page Chamber report was a conclusion at odds with the headline: 50% of 254 member companies surveyed said China was on, or ahead of schedule in implementing the agreement vs. 38% that said it was lagging.
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Chinese officials so far appear to be taking the U.S. criticism in stride, regarding it as the inevitable byproduct of the presidential election cycle. And they say China's leaders have their own protectionist constituencies to massage. "I think we have done our best," says Chen Baosen of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' American Studies Institute.
Besides, the U.S. does not have an unblemished trade record. A WTO panel ruled earlier this month that tariffs imposed by the Bush administration on imported steel in March 2002 violated international trade accords. In a Nov. 9 speech in Suzhou, China, Caterpillar CEO Glen Barton, who plans to expand his company's investment here, said Washington needs to play by the same rules it urges upon others.
"Increasingly, we in the United States will be asking other countries, like China, to stand up to politically influential interests in order to make reforms that will open their markets to U.S. products," Barton said. "If the world's most competitive country isn't willing to play by the rules ... how can we expect other countries to do the same?"
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