Is anyone else starting to get worried about the state of things?

[ScottyB]

As a Michigander, I have felt the effects of a bad economy for a couple years now. High unemployment coupled with higher dairy products, raising gas prices, and businesses and people leaving left and right have made things terribly bad here.

Now it seems to happening to the rest of the country and even the world. Food prices are skyrocketing, the dollar is down, and the economy is flat or even declining and there seems to be no end in sight.

I have no qualms stating that times are going to be bad for the next few years. But just how bad will they become? A year ago, I would have said the economy would bounce back quickly and would never get to a critical point. Now I am not so sure. I believe that we are bordering on a nationwide recession that could reach depression levels.

My grandmother, who lived through the Great Depression, thinks times are about to get really bad pretty soon. She thinks it will be a depression. I am now inclined to believe her. I do believe we will at least have a world-wide depression in the next few years, even if we remain only in a severe recession in the States.

What are your thoughts?

 

[ProfJohn]

You live in Michigan...that is your problem

Economic slow down, but we may be out of it by the election or early next year at the latest.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Nope. But then again, I'm an optimist and don't let the scare mongers affect me.

 

[Jmman]

It's amazing to me that people are screaming about the sky falling when we are at 5% unemployment, the DOW is at 11K+, and interest rates are at 5-6%.




Just a little historical perspective......



I remember as a child going to gas stations and there was no gas. None. People would wait in line for days just to get gas. I remember not only double digit interest rates, but double digit inflation. I remember unemployment creeping up close to 9 or 10 percent. I remember the DOW at 700.

 

[woodie1]

The area where you live is your problem. There are some States that are feeling the downturn a lot worse than most. Here in Texas things are humming along nicely, thank you very much.

 

[Craig234]

I'm concerned that the fundamentals of the US economic strength are threatened by our huge debt and loss of competitiveness as much of the world starts to catch up and pass us not only in manufacturing but in Ph.D level people as well, and with little protections, there's not much to stop the US falling but its role as the artificially supported economy.

At some point it would seem a chain effect can and should happen where nations move away from the dollar to protect themselves, and then race to get out of it ahead of others to avoid the plummet, triggering a downturn, and a re-alignment in the world in which the US role is diminished, and along the way, most Americans find they are a lot less well off.

Today, many Americans take for granted that their standard of living is far higher than most of the world, and that could move closer to others. We seem to already be well past the point of starting the artifical propping up of the US economy, such as with China's massive buying of our debt and our being somewhat at their mercy based only on their needing our spending to continue.

However, for all this, some economic commentators I think have an idea what's going on say that there's not too much danger of something anytime soon, and I hope they're right. But I'm not at all sure they are.

 

[ScottyB]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
You live in Michigan...that is your problem

Economic slow down, but we may be out of it by the election or early next year at the latest.

You can say that again. I have two B.A. degrees and made $3800 last year. Probably will make less this year.

 

[Foxery]

Starting to get worried? Where've ya been this decade?

Jmman hit it. Just because the TV tells you every day that it's the end of the world doesn't make the sky any less blue. Yes, we're in an economic slowdown. No, don't lose sleep over our pathetic fear-mongering media.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Jmman
It's amazing to me that people are screaming about the sky falling when we are at 5% unemployment, the DOW is at 11K+, and interest rates are at 5-6%.




Just a little historical perspective......



I remember as a child going to gas stations and there was no gas. None. People would wait in line for days just to get gas. I remember not only double digit interest rates, but double digit inflation. I remember unemployment creeping up close to 9 or 10 percent. I remember the DOW at 700.

Surely you realize that a recession brings unemployment? Dow of 11k compared to 700 is meaningless because you're comparing different eras; it's like saying your dad made $2900/year and now even a bum can make $15k, so it's much better. All your post does is confirm that we're not that bad _yet_.

People who post what their grandparents think are coming from polar ends of things.

The main, key points are that key economic indicators--basically all of them--are very bad and the future in the near term doesn't look good at all.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: ScottyB
Topic Title: Is anyone else starting to get worried about the state of things?
Topic Summary: Slow down? Recession? Depression?

As a Michigander, I have felt the effects of a bad economy for a couple years now.

High unemployment coupled with higher dairy products, raising gas prices, and businesses and people leaving left and right have made things terribly bad here.

Now it seems to happening to the rest of the country and even the world. Food prices are skyrocketing, the dollar is down, and the economy is flat or even declining and there seems to be no end in sight.

What are your thoughts?

All in your imagination according to P&Ners.

 

[Fern]

IMO, there's no doubt that we're gonna have a problem and it's because of the price of fuel.

How big a problem? IDK. But increased fuel prices are gonna drive inflation - food and other product costs because of increased shipping expense. Home fuel heating is gonna rise for many etc.

We get nothing in return for this increased costs, the product is not "better or bigger"; it's just a drain on our standard of living. Money better spent on investment or domestic product purchases is now, for the most part, leaving our country.

Fern

 

[Siddhartha]

Originally posted by: ScottyB
As a Michigander, I have felt the effects of a bad economy for a couple years now. High unemployment coupled with higher dairy products, raising gas prices, and businesses and people leaving left and right have made things terribly bad here.

Now it seems to happening to the rest of the country and even the world. Food prices are skyrocketing, the dollar is down, and the economy is flat or even declining and there seems to be no end in sight.

I have no qualms stating that times are going to be bad for the next few years. But just how bad will they become? A year ago, I would have said the economy would bounce back quickly and would never get to a critical point. Now I am not so sure. I believe that we are bordering on a nationwide recession that could reach depression levels.

My grandmother, who lived through the Great Depression, thinks times are about to get really bad pretty soon. She thinks it will be a depression. I am now inclined to believe her. I do believe we will at least have a world-wide depression in the next few years, even if we remain only in a severe recession in the States.

What are your thoughts?

Going by the number of doom and gloom threads posted on this forum, I would say that you are not alone in being worried.

 

[newmachineoverlord]

Originally posted by: Fern
IMO, there's no doubt that we're gonna have a problem and it's because of the price of fuel.

How big a problem? IDK. But increased fuel prices are gonna drive inflation - food and other product costs because of increased shipping expense. Home fuel heating is gonna rise for many etc.

We get nothing in return for this increased costs, the product is not "better or bigger"; it's just a drain on our standard of living. Money better spent on investment or domestic product purchases is now, for the most part, leaving our country.

Fern

winnar.

The root of the problem is that the fuel used to make the US economy run is nonrenewable and imported. This problem was foreseen decades ago and the 1986 CBO recommended an oil import tarriff to head off the problem before it got to this point, but instead they did nothing followed by a gas tax that taxed fuel equally, domestic and foreign, renewable and nonrenewable (way to miss the point). The domestic economy could be completely revitalized just by replacing fuel taxes with an oil import tariff and exempting the first 10K in income from SS taxes and raising the oil import tariff to pay for the difference. This would allow the transition to finally be decisively made to renewable domestically produced fuels. As long as people have to buy imported fuel just to get to work, our economy will not be in good health, and there will remain the possibility that the US can be priced out of the fuel market entirely.

During the first oil embargo oil prices tripled over just a few months and never went back down, and that was just a temporary situation. If any serious supply disruption occurs, prices could easily triple again in a short timeframe. Oil dependency is bad and there are only two ways out of it. Either the government helps to accelerate the transition to make it smoother, or the US gets priced out of the oil market and has to learn to do without it the hard way, suddenly.