Here's what I think:
Seriously I don't see Allawi winning anything but a free ticket back to London or a coffin. The major Sunni religious leaders who have the ear of most Sunni Iraqis don't like him at all because of what is going on in Fallujah and will support another pro-Sunni candidate. The Shiites have their own voting block sown up and ready to vote for a Shiite lead theocracy in the style of Iran. The Kurds are to small in numbers and frankly don't give a crap as long as both Shiites and Sunnis are not messing with them. Seriously what will this election bring about other then reaffirming the fact that Iraqis being muslims want a pro-muslim, anti-Israel and eventually a anti-US government and that this war was a giant waste of resources and lives.
The insurgents and mullahs are playing us to a tee IHMO. We take Fallujah and then a few months later it's in the hands of insurgents again. We repeat and rinse and clean up the civilian causalities off streets and repeat again. Sunni religious leaders become outraged and call us the great Satan and we are back right where we started all over again. Then the Shiites start up and we do the same with them and again we are labeled the great Satan etc....... In the end we accomplished the radicalization of Iraq using our own hand and weapons to do so. We fell into Bin Ladens plan and kicked and squirmed and lashed out in the exact way he wanted us to do so in Iraq. Unless our government commits major election fraud I don't see any pro-Israel/pro-American government being in place 5 or 15 years or 100 years from now unless it's backed up by our troops. Of course that means we will still be facing a insurgency. A greater one then what we have right now as Iraqis will of gotten sick and tired of having foreign troops in their country for that long of time.
Seriously I don't see Allawi winning anything but a free ticket back to London or a coffin. The major Sunni religious leaders who have the ear of most Sunni Iraqis don't like him at all because of what is going on in Fallujah and will support another pro-Sunni candidate. The Shiites have their own voting block sown up and ready to vote for a Shiite lead theocracy in the style of Iran. The Kurds are to small in numbers and frankly don't give a crap as long as both Shiites and Sunnis are not messing with them. Seriously what will this election bring about other then reaffirming the fact that Iraqis being muslims want a pro-muslim, anti-Israel and eventually a anti-US government and that this war was a giant waste of resources and lives.
The insurgents and mullahs are playing us to a tee IHMO. We take Fallujah and then a few months later it's in the hands of insurgents again. We repeat and rinse and clean up the civilian causalities off streets and repeat again. Sunni religious leaders become outraged and call us the great Satan and we are back right where we started all over again. Then the Shiites start up and we do the same with them and again we are labeled the great Satan etc....... In the end we accomplished the radicalization of Iraq using our own hand and weapons to do so. We fell into Bin Ladens plan and kicked and squirmed and lashed out in the exact way he wanted us to do so in Iraq. Unless our government commits major election fraud I don't see any pro-Israel/pro-American government being in place 5 or 15 years or 100 years from now unless it's backed up by our troops. Of course that means we will still be facing a insurgency. A greater one then what we have right now as Iraqis will of gotten sick and tired of having foreign troops in their country for that long of time.
