Iraqi early voting results--just one link.

[Lemon law]

As everyone should know, Iraqis went to the polls yesterday in providential elections.
Turnout was only about 50%, but many dislocated Iraqis were unable to vote.

It very much looks like solely religious factional parties are not doing well while those
promising social services are doing better. The big winner may be Maliki and hopes for a future Iraqi central government that will stop the gridlock in the legislature.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq

While this is just one link out of many I have seen, and to somewhat disagree with this link, it looks like Al-Sadr did quite well partly due to the social services he has always provided in Sadr City and elsewhere. And those Shia's opposing Al-Sadr lost big.

As another TLC prediction bites the dust if my other links prove correct.

And given that new coalitions will now form, the onus is now on Maliki to capitalize on those coalitions or he may be swept away in a reformist movement.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

One of my predictions bites the dust?

wtf are you on, LL? The article states that there was a voter backlash against sectarian and religious parties. al Sadr's party is both of those. It seems they are so desperate to hang onto what little shred of power they are even aligning with the party of the same man who routed them in Basra and elsewhere.

I'd say my predictions have held up very, very well. In fact, LL, it looks as if, once again, it was you that failed to make anything close to a correct prediction. But thanks for trying to make it look otherwise when anyone familiar with your predictions on Iraq knows you're fos.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
One of my predictions bites the dust?

wtf are you on, LL? The article states that there was a voter backlash against sectarian and religious parties. al Sadr's party is both of those. It seems they are so desperate to hang onto what little shred of power they are even aligning with the party of the same man who routed them in Basra and elsewhere.

I'd say my predictions have held up very, very well. In fact, LL, it looks as if, once again, it was you that failed to make anything close to a correct prediction. But thanks for trying to make it look otherwise when anyone familiar with your predictions on Iraq knows you're fos.

so the sectarian parties mostly lost, but you were right anyways?

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
One of my predictions bites the dust?

wtf are you on, LL? The article states that there was a voter backlash against sectarian and religious parties. al Sadr's party is both of those. It seems they are so desperate to hang onto what little shred of power they are even aligning with the party of the same man who routed them in Basra and elsewhere.

I'd say my predictions have held up very, very well. In fact, LL, it looks as if, once again, it was you that failed to make anything close to a correct prediction. But thanks for trying to make it look otherwise when anyone familiar with your predictions on Iraq knows you're fos.

so the sectarian parties mostly lost, but you were right anyways?

My prediction was that Maliki's incursion into Basra would heighten his profile and gain trust among the Iraqis. I also disagreed with the oft-cited assertion in here that Iraq would become a Theocracy and claimed that Iraqis did not support religious rule. Looks like the voters in Iraq are backing up my claims in both cases.

btw. Are you confusing "sectarian" and secular?

 

[Lemon law]

TLC, before you self declare yourself right, the issue is and remains how Al-Sadr did, we will not know for sure for another day or two, but from other links I have seen, it looks like Al-Sadr will gain seats and influence as he slightly modifies his positions.

And the Al-Sadr rival you long ago predicted as profiting from the Al-Sadr decline has instead really lost big time as the Supreme Islamic Council has not done well at all.

TLC, maybe you should wait to see the final results.

 

[yllus]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
One of my predictions bites the dust?

wtf are you on, LL? The article states that there was a voter backlash against sectarian and religious parties. al Sadr's party is both of those. It seems they are so desperate to hang onto what little shred of power they are even aligning with the party of the same man who routed them in Basra and elsewhere.

I'd say my predictions have held up very, very well. In fact, LL, it looks as if, once again, it was you that failed to make anything close to a correct prediction. But thanks for trying to make it look otherwise when anyone familiar with your predictions on Iraq knows you're fos.

so the sectarian parties mostly lost, but you were right anyways?

My prediction was that Maliki's incursion into Basra would heighten his profile and gain trust among the Iraqis. I also disagreed with the oft-cited assertion in here that Iraq would become a Theocracy and claimed that Iraqis did not support religious rule. Looks like the voters in Iraq are backing up my claims in both cases.

btw. Are you confusing "sectarian" and secular?

If those were your predictions (I don't know what prior thread you're all referring to), as of today you seem to be dead on:

Iraqi voters shun ruling religious parties

BAGHDAD - Iraqis voted heavily for secular parties in last weekend's provincial polls, in a show of disaffection with the religious parties that lead the central government, early indications showed on Monday.

In a further sign of voter disillusionment, turnout in the country's first elections since 2005 was little more than 50 percent, and even lower among the Shiite majority community.

The Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), the Shiite religious party that won control of seven out of the 11 mainly Shiite provinces four years ago, looked set to lose at least five of them, according to early results from the electoral commission.

The outcome was a serious blow for the party's aspirations to establish a Shiite autonomous region in the centre and south like the Kurdish one in the far north.

The big winners were secular parties, including not only the list of former prime minister Iyad Allawi but also several new formations, some with links to the ousted regime of Saddam Hussein.

Election win signals Iraqi power shift

The Prime Minister, a Shiite, who campaigned hard with a nationalist law-and-order message in the weeks before Saturday's vote, would have strong momentum in his bid to hold on to power in national elections later this year in the majority Shiite country.

Anecdotal evidence also points to success for Mr. Maliki, who was installed by larger Shiite religious parties in 2006 and in the past had little clout in the provinces.

Of dozens of voters throughout Sadr City interviewed by Reuters, nearly all said they picked the Prime Minister's slate.

At Sadr City's al-Chowadar coffee shop, a straw poll was unanimous: Everyone said they voted for "Abu Asraa", referring to Mr. Maliki by his daughter's name, a sign of affection.

"He succeeded in changing our bad situation for the better," said Haj Nassir al-Lami, an elderly man puffing on a water pipe.

That said, beating out Lemon law in a test of knowledge on the Middle East isn't much of a feat. You might as well have challenged dmcowen674 to... well, anything I guess.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: yllus

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
One of my predictions bites the dust?

wtf are you on, LL? The article states that there was a voter backlash against sectarian and religious parties. al Sadr's party is both of those. It seems they are so desperate to hang onto what little shred of power they are even aligning with the party of the same man who routed them in Basra and elsewhere.

I'd say my predictions have held up very, very well. In fact, LL, it looks as if, once again, it was you that failed to make anything close to a correct prediction. But thanks for trying to make it look otherwise when anyone familiar with your predictions on Iraq knows you're fos.

so the sectarian parties mostly lost, but you were right anyways?

My prediction was that Maliki's incursion into Basra would heighten his profile and gain trust among the Iraqis. I also disagreed with the oft-cited assertion in here that Iraq would become a Theocracy and claimed that Iraqis did not support religious rule. Looks like the voters in Iraq are backing up my claims in both cases.

btw. Are you confusing "sectarian" and secular?

If those were your predictions (I don't know what prior thread you're all referring to), as of today you seem to be dead on:

Iraqi voters shun ruling religious parties

BAGHDAD - Iraqis voted heavily for secular parties in last weekend's provincial polls, in a show of disaffection with the religious parties that lead the central government, early indications showed on Monday.

In a further sign of voter disillusionment, turnout in the country's first elections since 2005 was little more than 50 percent, and even lower among the Shiite majority community.

The Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), the Shiite religious party that won control of seven out of the 11 mainly Shiite provinces four years ago, looked set to lose at least five of them, according to early results from the electoral commission.

The outcome was a serious blow for the party's aspirations to establish a Shiite autonomous region in the centre and south like the Kurdish one in the far north.

The big winners were secular parties, including not only the list of former prime minister Iyad Allawi but also several new formations, some with links to the ousted regime of Saddam Hussein.

Election win signals Iraqi power shift

The Prime Minister, a Shiite, who campaigned hard with a nationalist law-and-order message in the weeks before Saturday's vote, would have strong momentum in his bid to hold on to power in national elections later this year in the majority Shiite country.

Anecdotal evidence also points to success for Mr. Maliki, who was installed by larger Shiite religious parties in 2006 and in the past had little clout in the provinces.

Of dozens of voters throughout Sadr City interviewed by Reuters, nearly all said they picked the Prime Minister's slate.

At Sadr City's al-Chowadar coffee shop, a straw poll was unanimous: Everyone said they voted for "Abu Asraa", referring to Mr. Maliki by his daughter's name, a sign of affection.

"He succeeded in changing our bad situation for the better," said Haj Nassir al-Lami, an elderly man puffing on a water pipe.

That said, beating out Lemon law in a test of knowledge on the Middle East isn't much of a feat. You might as well have challenged dmcowen674 to... well, anything I guess.

I think this thread from some months back pretty well covers my predictions and those of LL, and also references other similar threads with poor prognostications by LL.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...ord1=basra+maliki+sadr

LL was right about one thing though.

So TLC is still sticking to his checkmate scenario of--Sadr has been relegated to the back burner. His credibility has been eroded to a stump and he'll be lucky if he maintains his current level of support in government. We shall see in the coming elections.

We may well see sooner than that if Maliki's over reaches. HAVING IS NOT HOLDING.

 

[palehorse]

LL is infamously known for his predictions that everything in Iraq is a facade, and that "any day now" the place will erupt into unprecedented violence caused by our own (The US') inability to see the forest through the trees. He's also known for misrepresenting other posters' positions in his posts -- ie. lying and/or putting words in others' mouths.

As for the elections, I'm very proud of what we and the Iraqi people have been able to accomplish there over the last year. Witnessing their bravery and tenacity is truly amazing and awe-inspiring. :thumbsup:

 

[Lemon law]

Before you count out Al-Sadr, you might check a link in today's NYT. Here is a snippet.

Other incumbent parties also had strong showings in multiple provinces, including the secular Iraqi National List led by Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister; the Iraqi Islamic Party led by Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni; and the nominally independent parties backed by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Before you count out Al-Sadr, you might check a link in today's NYT. Here is a snippet.

Other incumbent parties also had strong showings in multiple provinces, including the secular Iraqi National List led by Ayad Allawi, a former interim prime minister; the Iraqi Islamic Party led by Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni; and the nominally independent parties backed by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

Before you count on al Sadr actually gaining anything in this election you might want to read another NY Times article:

One of the most powerful Shiite blocs nationally, the Sadrist movement led by the cleric Moktada al-Sadr, did not run as its own party in these provincial elections. It did, however, endorse two other parties.

Text

 

[MegaWorks]

Iraqis are not retarded, please they know what's good for them and they know when someone is trying to sell them out. Maliki is a real patriot, even people from the Sunni provinces like this guy.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

I guess LL hasn't found time to follow up on his own thread? Maybe he needs some help:

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1249627

As the interim results from Iraq's provincial elections trickle in it is becoming obvious the vote has transformed the country and possibly the Middle East.

A new generation of Iraqi politicians appears to be stepping to the forefront, young, secular and rooted in the country - not exiles riding the coattails of a U.S. invasion force.

In a dramatic move away from the sectarian and religious-based politics that traumatized Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, voters appear to have picked Sunni and Shiite secular parties at the expense of their religious competition.

The Iran-backed Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and supporters of Shiite firebrand Moqtada-al-Sadr were sidelined in southern Iraq as their share of the vote seems to have shrunk dramatically.

Right now, it appears none of the Islamic parties will be able to control any provinces on their own, a dramatic turnaround from the last election, when Shiite parties, backed by Iran, controlled Iraq's nine southern provinces.

Early results indicate Mr. Sadr's support may have fallen from 11% in 2005 to about 3%.

In Baghdad, the ISCI used to have 28 of the 57 provincial seats, but now they expect to win only eight or nine.

The big winner appears to be the party of Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, who campaigned on a strong law and order platform.

Aided by a dramatic reduction in violence and sectarianism, Mr. Maliki's Dawa party (Coalition for a State of Laws) also played the nationalist card. It promoted itself as unifying the country while finally getting Washington to agree to a firm date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

"We are witnessing the revival of Iraqi nationalism," said Mustafa Alani, an analyst with the Gulf Research Centre, based in Dubai. "This has unified Iraqis against a number of threats."

While Mr. Maliki did not stand for election, his party used him and his photograph prominently in the campaign, possibly appealing to Iraqis' desire for a new strongman.

Where the ISCI proposed turning southern Iraq into a federated region in a weakened state, modeled on the autonomous Kurdish region in the north, Mr. Maliki's supporters preached the benefits of a strong central government in Baghdad.

Although final election results are not expected for at least two weeks, the interim results being reported by election and party officials suggest Saturday's vote may have transformed Iraqi politics, even if 6% fewer eligible voters turned out than in 2005.

...

Your prediction doesn't prove correct, LL and it was you who bit the proverbial dust.

For your sake I hope it was tasty dirt.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
I guess LL hasn't found time to follow up on his own thread? Maybe he needs some help:

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1249627

As the interim results from Iraq's provincial elections trickle in it is becoming obvious the vote has transformed the country and possibly the Middle East.

A new generation of Iraqi politicians appears to be stepping to the forefront, young, secular and rooted in the country - not exiles riding the coattails of a U.S. invasion force.

In a dramatic move away from the sectarian and religious-based politics that traumatized Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, voters appear to have picked Sunni and Shiite secular parties at the expense of their religious competition.

The Iran-backed Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and supporters of Shiite firebrand Moqtada-al-Sadr were sidelined in southern Iraq as their share of the vote seems to have shrunk dramatically.

Right now, it appears none of the Islamic parties will be able to control any provinces on their own, a dramatic turnaround from the last election, when Shiite parties, backed by Iran, controlled Iraq's nine southern provinces.

Early results indicate Mr. Sadr's support may have fallen from 11% in 2005 to about 3%.

In Baghdad, the ISCI used to have 28 of the 57 provincial seats, but now they expect to win only eight or nine.

The big winner appears to be the party of Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, who campaigned on a strong law and order platform.

Aided by a dramatic reduction in violence and sectarianism, Mr. Maliki's Dawa party (Coalition for a State of Laws) also played the nationalist card. It promoted itself as unifying the country while finally getting Washington to agree to a firm date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

"We are witnessing the revival of Iraqi nationalism," said Mustafa Alani, an analyst with the Gulf Research Centre, based in Dubai. "This has unified Iraqis against a number of threats."

While Mr. Maliki did not stand for election, his party used him and his photograph prominently in the campaign, possibly appealing to Iraqis' desire for a new strongman.

Where the ISCI proposed turning southern Iraq into a federated region in a weakened state, modeled on the autonomous Kurdish region in the north, Mr. Maliki's supporters preached the benefits of a strong central government in Baghdad.

Although final election results are not expected for at least two weeks, the interim results being reported by election and party officials suggest Saturday's vote may have transformed Iraqi politics, even if 6% fewer eligible voters turned out than in 2005.

...

Your prediction doesn't prove correct, LL and it was you who bit the proverbial dust.

For your sake I hope it was tasty dirt.

/cue LL and a misrepresentation of his own original positions in 3... 2... 1...

 

[Lemon law]

I almost might agree with the statements of palehorse and TLC, except for one major distortion, the ISCI does not back Al-Sadr, it backs Al-Sadr rival Hakim.

After allying with Maliki's Dawa party in 2005 as part of the United Iraqi Alliance, this time ISCI is running on its own, using the powerful imagery of the ayatollah who founded the movement during his exile in Iran, Muhammad Baqr al-Hakim. (Hakim was assassinated in 2003, after returning to Iraq, and the movement today is led by his brother, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim.) The party's name on the ballot is Shahid al-Mehrab, a honorific title widely seen as referring to the founder. In its election material, ISCI makes generous use of religious Shiite imagery, despite a supposed ban on doing so. ( A link found on google after gioogling ISCI, something anyone can duplicate to check what I am saying )

And to some extent, the lost ground of the ISCI aids Al-Sadr, because before, Iranian money was funding both Al-Sadr and the ISCI, and now more Iranian money will likely go to Al-Sadr because its wasted on Hakim.

Nor do I want to imply I am supporting Al-Sadr or rooting for him in any way, but I am saying he seems to be a survivor, and has problems of age related legitimacy because Iraqis and Iranians tend not to support Clerics who are too young. So Al-Sadr is biding his time for that legitimacy to come, bending but not breaking meanwhile.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I almost might agree with the statements of palehorse and TLC, except for one major distortion, the ISCI does not back Al-Sadr, it backs Al-Sadr rival Hakim.

Neither of us made such a claim. I think maybe you need to read the following statement more carefully and understand that it is not stating what you seem to think:

"The Iran-backed Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and supporters of Shiite firebrand Moqtada-al-Sadr were sidelined in southern Iraq as their share of the vote seems to have shrunk dramatically. "

I can see how you might misinterpret that sentence, but it's not actually claiming the supporters of both groups are one-and-the-same. It is saying that the share of votes for both groups have shrunk dramatically.

After allying with Maliki's Dawa party in 2005 as part of the United Iraqi Alliance, this time ISCI is running on its own, using the powerful imagery of the ayatollah who founded the movement during his exile in Iran, Muhammad Baqr al-Hakim. (Hakim was assassinated in 2003, after returning to Iraq, and the movement today is led by his brother, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim.) The party's name on the ballot is Shahid al-Mehrab, a honorific title widely seen as referring to the founder. In its election material, ISCI makes generous use of religious Shiite imagery, despite a supposed ban on doing so. ( A link found on google after gioogling ISCI, something anyone can duplicate to check what I am saying )

And to some extent, the lost ground of the ISCI aids Al-Sadr, because before, Iranian money was funding both Al-Sadr and the ISCI, and now more Iranian money will likely go to Al-Sadr because its wasted on Hakim.

Nor do I want to imply I am supporting Al-Sadr or rooting for him in any way, but I am saying he seems to be a survivor, and has problems of age related legitimacy because Iraqis and Iranians tend not to support Clerics who are too young. So Al-Sadr is biding his time for that legitimacy to come, bending but not breaking meanwhile.

Sadr can keep leeching money off of Iran if he so chooses. Considering the strong tendencies towards nationalism in Iraq now, taking Iranian graft is only going to further marginalize him in the long run.

 

[Lemon law]

The other election news is the Allawi, nominally a Sunni did quite well, and may become a Maliki rival in the near future.

Its far too early to predicting how the election will play out and how the future factions will interact, but in terms of any Obama Iraqi withdrawal, best implementing that goal should probably be something that waits to see how the dust settles from these Iraqi elections. Meanwhile, I shall take with a large grain of salt the TLC prediction that "Considering the strong tendencies towards nationalism in Iraq now, taking Iranian graft is only going to further marginalize him in the long run."

I think the word graft is poorly chosen, because any monies Iran gives Al-Sadr will likely go to relief aid in his power bases of Sadr City and the rest of the Shia South, and its in Iranian national interests to have a friendly and stable Iraq on its Western Border. Any possible Iraqi three State solution has been long dead long before this election, if nothing else, the population distribution in Iraq made that not viable. Because then, the Sunnis would be odd man out, possibly reigniting a new blood bath as Sunnis and Shia again fight it out for control of the center.

If anything, stopping Iraqi graft is going be a Maliki problem, as remaining Iraq power bases have been funding themselves with Iraqi graft and may fight to keep it going.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The other election news is the Allawi, nominally a Sunni did quite well, and may become a Maliki rival in the near future.

Its far too early to predicting how the election will play out and how the future factions will interact, but in terms of any Obama Iraqi withdrawal, best implementing that goal should probably be something that waits to see how the dust settles from these Iraqi elections. Meanwhile, I shall take with a large grain of salt the TLC prediction that "Considering the strong tendencies towards nationalism in Iraq now, taking Iranian graft is only going to further marginalize him in the long run."

Now it's far too early to make predictions? Heh. You funny guy.

I think the word graft is poorly chosen, because any monies Iran gives Al-Sadr will likely go to relief aid in his power bases of Sadr City and the rest of the Shia South, and its in Iranian national interests to have a friendly and stable Iraq on its Western Border. Any possible Iraqi three State solution has been long dead long before this election, if nothing else, the population distribution in Iraq made that not viable. Because then, the Sunnis would be odd man out, possibly reigniting a new blood bath as Sunnis and Shia again fight it out for control of the center.

If anything, stopping Iraqi graft is going be a Maliki problem, as remaining Iraq power bases have been funding themselves with Iraqi graft and may fight to keep it going.

Iran hasn't been too interested in having a stable Iraq in the past. Supplying arms and Quds military support doesn't really do much for stability in Iraq. I doubt the mullahs like the idea of a democratic state right next door that isn't ruled by a cleric's iron fist either. Such a setup just might give their own people crazy ideas about freedom of choice from heavy-handed Islamic rule, and other undesireable notions. imo, Sadr's and ISCI's involvement with Iran has done them no favors in the eyes of the Iraqi public either, as preliminary voting results seem to indicate.

As far as Iraqi corruption, I hope that's something that Maliki deals with. It's going to be a difficult task though because bribes and corruption have been SOP in Iraqi politics for ages. It's ingrained and basically accepted as a cultural norm. It will be a slow, painful pocess weaning them from their old ways.

 

[MegaWorks]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The other election news is the Allawi, nominally a Sunni did quite well, and may become a Maliki rival in the near future.

Its far too early to predicting how the election will play out and how the future factions will interact, but in terms of any Obama Iraqi withdrawal, best implementing that goal should probably be something that waits to see how the dust settles from these Iraqi elections. Meanwhile, I shall take with a large grain of salt the TLC prediction that "Considering the strong tendencies towards nationalism in Iraq now, taking Iranian graft is only going to further marginalize him in the long run."

I think the word graft is poorly chosen, because any monies Iran gives Al-Sadr will likely go to relief aid in his power bases of Sadr City and the rest of the Shia South, and its in Iranian national interests to have a friendly and stable Iraq on its Western Border. Any possible Iraqi three State solution has been long dead long before this election, if nothing else, the population distribution in Iraq made that not viable. Because then, the Sunnis would be odd man out, possibly reigniting a new blood bath as Sunnis and Shia again fight it out for control of the center.

If anything, stopping Iraqi graft is going be a Maliki problem, as remaining Iraq power bases have been funding themselves with Iraqi graft and may fight to keep it going.

I'm Iraqi and btw the US will leave Iraq in 2011 this agreement happened couple of months before the US elections. Now speaking of Allawi the man is extremely corrupt and a sell out to the US and also a Baathist sympathizer, so no one wants him. What we want is someone that makes things done right and the only person that has proven himself of doing that lately is Al-Maliki. Iraq is around 75% Shi'ite it doesn't matter if someone wears a black turban or a scream occupation, we respect our Muslim school in Najaf but we're not that stupid to believe the likes of Al-Sadr or the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.