Iraq Elections and the Insurgency

[eilute]

Immediately after the Iraq elections there was a dramatic decline in the number of insurgent attacks. What do you think was the cause of this decline?

The only thing that I can think of, is that the elections dealt a severe blow to the moral of all the different insurgent groups. In other words, they felt that they could no longer achieve their goals.

The only problem with this idea, is that there are roughly seven different insurgent groups and each probably has different goals.

What is your view?

 

[Forsythe]

Originally posted by: eilute
Immediately after the Iraq elections there was a dramatic decline in the number of insurgent attacks. What do you think was the cause of this decline?

The only thing that I can think of, is that the elections dealt a severe blow to the moral of all the different insurgent groups. In other words, they felt that they could no longer achieve their goals.

The only problem with this idea, is that there are roughly seven different insurgent groups and each probably has different goals.

What is your view?

Well, the low amount has turned around to some of the highest, that's what i know.

 

[Votingisanillusion]

Do not forget that the elected Iraqi politicians promised during the campaign that the first thing they would do once in power would be to tell the Pentagon "thank you, now please leave!". The largest part of the resistance allowed them to do that, by ceasing to fight. But as everywhere on Earth, Iraqi politicians are liars. They are now viewed by the Iraqis as puppets.

You would have understood that, had you paid regular visits to this site:
http://www.uruknet.info/?p=99999&l=i&size=1&hd=0

For example:

Iraq resistance strong, popular anger growing
Greg Butterfield, Workers World

June 11, 2005 - President George W. Bush?s practiced smiles and his cronies? anxious denials can?t hide the truth: Exposures of prisoner abuse, the military recruiting crisis, the instability of Washington?s client regime in Baghdad, and especially the powerful resistance movement are slamming the U.S.-led occupation.

Inexorably, inevitably, the skein of lies holding together the occupation of Iraq is coming undone.

Resistance fighters have doubled their daily attacks since April, the Pentagon admitted on May 31. At least 77 U.S. troops were killed in May.

That is the highest number since January, when U.S.-sponsored national elections were held, Reuters reported. The Associated Press put the number of U.S. casualties for the month at 80.

Military actions by the resistance slowed briefly after the Jan. 30 elections. That led Bush & Co. to virtually crow, ?Mission accomplished,? all over again. The military brass spoke of reducing troop numbers by the end of the year?not as a move to end the occupation, but because they believed Iraq would shortly be ?pacified.?

Instead, it appears the resistance had made a strategic decision: to retreat temporarily, giving the new occupation-sponsored government time to expose its true character to any Iraqis who might have harbored hopes that the election would herald the end of foreign occupation.

Today U.S. ?experts? are singing a very different tune.

?Those who believed that the elections would be a decisive turning point undermining the insurgency are disappointed yet again,? admitted Ted Carpenter, a defense analyst for the Cato Institute. ?The insurgency seems as capable as ever.?

Daniel Goure of the Lexington Institute predicted Washington would have to keep ?significant numbers? of troops in Iraq ?at least for the next five years. The reality is we have discovered, despite all our propaganda, that we are facing a very tough, resilient and smart adversary,? said Goure. (Reuters, May 31)


More: http://www.uruknet.info/?colonna=m&p=12481&l=i&size=1&hd=0

 

[Steeplerot]

Originally posted by: eilute
Immediately after the Iraq elections there was a dramatic decline in the number of insurgent attacks. What do you think was the cause of this decline?

The only thing that I can think of, is that the elections dealt a severe blow to the moral of all the different insurgent groups. In other words, they felt that they could no longer achieve their goals.

The only problem with this idea, is that there are roughly seven different insurgent groups and each probably has different goals.

What is your view?

ummm..the attacks have gotten far worse...wtf you smoking?

 

[TRUMPHENT]

In the military arts and sciences, this would classified as a strategic pause. The offensive is temporarily suspended to allow supplies to be brought up. The insurgency cannot go toe to toe with the US. It can keep moving and shifting targets and tactics. One of the latest changes is the increasing use of "shaped Charges". These are designed to punch a hole in armored vehicles. These tools are probably from Al Qaqaa or some other weapons site that was not secured, guarded, inventoried, protected, etc. in the wake of the invasion.

Never forget that there are as many out of work Iraq Army career soldiers without salaries, pensions or hobbies as are US occupation forces. Write your thank you's to Paul Bremer and Donald Rumsfeld.

 

[eilute]

Originally posted by: Steeplerot
ummm..the attacks have gotten far worse...wtf you smoking?

I'm not sure what the death toll has been, but other than the post election dip, the number of insurgent attacks per day has not changed in 9 months.

 

[eilute]

Originally posted by: TRUMPHENT
In the military arts and sciences, this would classified as a strategic pause. The offensive is temporarily suspended to allow supplies to be brought up. The insurgency cannot go toe to toe with the US. It can keep moving and shifting targets and tactics. One of the latest changes is the increasing use of "shaped Charges". These are designed to punch a hole in armored vehicles. These tools are probably from Al Qaqaa or some other weapons site that was not secured, guarded, inventoried, protected, etc. in the wake of the invasion.

Never forget that there are as many out of work Iraq Army career soldiers without salaries, pensions or hobbies as are US occupation forces. Write your thank you's to Paul Bremer and Donald Rumsfeld.

I think the different insurgent groups operate too independently to have made a strategic pause. I also think that the different insurgent groups have more than enough arms to continue fighting, as for the improvised explosive devices, well, they are improvised.

 

[Steeplerot]

last month was the 5 or 6th worst month in the war..the last 9 months not counting last month included 4 more of the worst months of the war. *
The ball is just getting rolling, we are not in control of large parts anymore and the peoples conditions are just getting worse off.
And still no end in sight, civil war is a breath away from some reports.

And those guys out there are getting weary..over 2 years now in the desert and recruiting goals are falling short.
*taken from OIF

 

[BBond]

It was the same with the "handover of power" last June. Everyone had great expectations yet within weeks the situation returned to its brutal status-quo.

And I disagree with the OP about factions having different goals. They have one common goal, IMO. To end the illegal U.S. occupation of Iraq.

 

[eilute]

Originally posted by: BBond
And I disagree with the OP about factions having different goals. They have one common goal, IMO. To end the illegal U.S. occupation of Iraq.

I have my doubts. If the primary goal of the militant factions is to end the U.S. occupation, then they are porducing an awful lot of collateral damage.