Originally posted by: Lemon law
The illusion here is that Iraq is stable because it was stable yesterday. All that has happened is that the very factions and insurgencies no longer do as much ethnic cleansing, they loot the Iraqi government instead.
But no political progress has occurred and the whole place could blow up at any time.
I am not trying to be optimistic or pessimistic, I am just stating if one major faction starting fighting, all are likely to follow. And until political stability is built, the potential of an Iraqi civil war is always there, from within and without.
http://www.american-pictures.c...llery/usa/book230t.htm
There is also illusion that outside of St. louis, aka East St. Louis, or even North City St. Louis, is stable, because it's stable today. There's alot of fighting and violence there too. But it's down. I grew up right outside of East St. Louis, which really does fucking look like a god damn war zone, in a town that borders ESTL, that was called the "most racist town in america" by 60 minutes (they had a whole episode devoted to how fucked up the "border" between estl and belleville is) due to the mix of bottom of the barrel poverty (relative to other us cities) with a mostly wealthy german settlement. It's almost like Isreal/Gaza.
There are notable periods of racial outbursts here, especially on the belleville/east st. louis border. Gang bangers are notorious for "crossing the border" into belleville, wrecking shit, raping and killing, fucking with white judges, etc. Not that this doesn't happen other places, but I grew up in the middle of it. Almost all of ESTL's government is corrupt, on the take, squandering public funds, etc. I've even personally sued an ESTL police officer for being corrupt and trying to extort me.
And yes, there are tit for tat responses from Belleville. And sometimes they are more pyschotic than the gang violence that caused the response. That is part of why I've oftened jokes about a US occupation of East St. Louis! I'd love to see hummers and tanks rolling around down there. It might be a crazy response, but i'd rather see one big over the top crazy response that would completely rebuild the area and cleanse it, then have another 100 years of under the table conflict. Seriously, we have "periods" of racial wars here. It's been corrupt enough that eSTL actually lost its city hall, and the state of illinois had to come in and take the city over at one point. They are about to do it again.
Can we maybe get some political progress here too? Iraq isn't the only place struggling. Ever since they opened up metro link that directly connects the heart of estl to the heart of belleville, racial tensions have been absurdly high, because violence is up. What if they put a light rail train connecting gaza and isreal? As soon as metro link opened up, violence and crime spiked in belleville and 95% of arrests where of estl citizens. They live in slums, and belleville is just a train ride away. they ride up there, steal a purse, walk the streets begging for food, then take the last train ride fo the night home.
My point is, no place where there is such a divide will ever see total peace, harmony, or become a model of democratic function. I think we should look at the overal death count going down, with the opportunity to at least turn over more and more control to the Iraqis as a good thing. We still discuss the problems going forward (aka how fragile the situation is, etc.) but still make a positive associate and RECOGNIZE that things are seemingly looking up.
Like I said, the ESTL governement is corrupt like all hell, but they are all black, and the community is 99.9% black, so at least they are doing it to themselves. At least now, the Iraqis can cause problems for themselves, where as before, Saddam was the cause. The iraqies have at least put in place the functions to make things better and over time make things nice for themselves. It could take 50 years, but at least the door is unlocked for them now.
And I'm sure the race vs religion argument could be brought up, I'm just using it as an example of "something" that caused a divide that doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon.
Edit.. interestint links about people debating belleville vs east stl.
http://www.topix.com/forum/cit...e-il/TK3HB6A078DKPSKTK
http://www.topix.com/forum/cit...e-il/TVGEHBI5P4RAMT0KG
http://www.pbase.com/cincyimages/east_st_louis_illinois
ESTL PICS
http://www.pbase.com/cincyimages/image/46679824
http://www.pbase.com/cincyimages/image/46679815