Originally posted by: Craig234
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: Craig234
I can't even make sense of your post at this point.
We're discussing your incorrect claim that 4,000 is too small a sample for an accurate poll of the opinion of 80M people in six nations.
You throw out the name Zogby like it's an argument proving something; it's not. If you want to make an argument, make an argument.
For now, you are frothing, not arguing, with the "!!11!!1!!!1111!" implied if not written.
As for a poll saying 42% believe the US is covering up 9/11 - first, I doubt the accuracy of your characterization, what *precisely* did it say - second, I'd need to review the poll.
You are the one who is lacking information, not I.
The best defense is a good offense, however absurd the attack, eh? No, you look foolish.
There is no official formula for polling
That is why each polling group comes out with different numbers and different results.
You're *still* wasting my time with these nonsensical posts, sadly, and I'll not let you get away with the nonsense.
*As I said*, there are many factors in polling and election predictive polling and such, making them inexact. But that's not the topic. For the umpteenth time, the topic is:
You said 4,000 is too small sample for any meaningful poll of 80 million people in 6 nations.
As I've shown, you are wrong.
All you're doing now is trying to pretend you never said that, not dealing with your error, and throwing out post after post after post after post after post with incoherency on polling.
In this one, you're trying to conflate the word 'formula'. There IS, as I said, a standard formula for calculating the theoretical margin of error (a precise term - since you have indicated you know nothing else of statistics, I won't assume you know the term either, it doesn't mean the amount the poll might be wrong, but rather the likely range of error, with a probability of the likelihood the poll is within that range, almost always a 95% confidence in popular reports on polling, meaning 1 in 20 are inaccurate outside that range).
When I say that there is a clear formula for the theoretical margin of error (assuming ideally randomized sampling, for example, not practically possible), which is the topic relevant to your wrong claim that 4,000 is too small a sample, you then try to conflate the word formula to include all the many things predictive polls have to account for, most having nothing to do with the sample size, the actual topic of discussion.
The fact that part of Zogby's 'formula' for a poll predicting who will win a primary includes such things as haivng to predict who will vote has *nothing* to do with the sample size.
You are clearly of the belief that if you respond to 2+2=4 with "I like cake" enough times, you will somehow prove 2+2=5. You won't.
If you disagree with what I said regarding the numbers then you must definitely agree with the Zogby poll that shows 42% believe the U.S is covering up something.
Some people believe that the US government and its 9/11 Commission concealed or refused to investigate critical evidence that contradicts their official explanation of the September 11th attacks, saying there has been a cover-up. Others say that the 9/11 Commission was a bi-partisan group of honest and well-respected people and that there is no reason they would want to cover-up anything. Who are you more likely to agree with?
US government and 9/11 Commission are NOT covering up
48%
US government and 9/11 Commission are covering up
42
Not sure
10
Therefore, it sounds me like 42% of the U.S is just as stupid as the President of Iran.
Brillaint
As I said, I'd need to review the poll to see if they followed good polling practices, e.g., a good random sampling, but giving them the benefit of the doubt, there's no reason then to think they're wrong in reporting 42% of Americans hold that view. You might think the 42% are idiots, but that's not a flaw in the poll, whose function is to tell you the number. At least you apparently provided the actual question, so that's cleared up.
I'm surprised the number is so high; and that has nothing to do with our topic, your error in saying 4,000 is too small a sample size for the poll of the Middle East region.
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