Iran ready to build nuclear weapon, analysts say

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
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http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WO...st/02/20/iran.nuclear/

Iranian scientists have reached "nuclear weapons breakout capability," according to a new report based on findings of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency.

The Institute for Science and International Security report concludes Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon but does have enough low-enriched uranium for a single nuclear weapon.

But an official at the International Atomic Energy Agency cautioned about drawing such conclusions. The IAEA says Iran's stock of low-enriched uranium would have to be turned into highly enriched uranium to be weapons-grade material.

The official says Iran has not done that, and the IAEA's monitors and surveillance equipment at the Natanz facility would be able to detect any such activity. In addition, the official says, Iran would have to significantly upgrade its current enrichment facilities in order to make HEU for bombs. The official says there is no evidence of any such activity.

The institute drew its conclusions from an IAEA report dated February 19, 2009. An official in the IAEA confirmed the authenticity of the report for CNN, but didn't want to be named.

The IAEA report is posted on the Web site of ISIS, a Washington-based non-profit and non-partisan institution focused on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons.

It also finds that while Iran has dramatically increased installation of centrifuges that can be used for enriching uranium -- from 4,000 to 5,400 -- its scientists aren't using the new units yet. They remain in "research and development mode."

In the IAEA report, the agency also says no substantive progress has been made in resolving issues about possible "military dimensions" to Iran's nuclear program.

Iran has consistently denied the weapons allegations, calling them "baseless" and "fabricated."

Iran says its nuclear program is necessary to provide civilian energy for the country, but other countries have voiced concern that its true purpose is to produce nuclear weapons.


Perhaps this is the war to break this recession.

Zero used to say that a nuclear Iran is a grave threat. Wonder if he is a man of his word.
 

Modelworks

Lifer
Feb 22, 2007
16,240
7
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They can't reach the current level of destruction of the current USA atomic weapons , but I think they do have the tech and supplies to do a Hiroshima type bomb, maybe a yield slightly less. Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel. I was what they nickname a Nuke in the Navy, people that are assigned to the reactors on ships and subs, and from the training they gave us, a bomb is really very simple to make. The problem is the Uranium and I'm pretty sure they have had more than enough time to make enough for that size weapon.

I think its time we let the other countries deal with Iran, its their part of the world that Iran will effect if its true.



 

kylebisme

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2000
9,396
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The Institute for Science and International Security report concludes Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon but does have enough low-enriched uranium for a single nuclear weapon.

OMG, the inevitable result of any civilian nuclear energy program. Panic!
 

kylebisme

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2000
9,396
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Originally posted by: Modelworks
Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel.

Not without killing thousands of their fellow Muslims and irradiating millions more.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
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Left unchecked, Iran will get a nuclear weapon in the not too distant future, I'm quite sure. Still, the US cannot do anything about it without a cost almost certainly higher than the reward.
 

Modelworks

Lifer
Feb 22, 2007
16,240
7
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Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: Modelworks
Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel.

Not without killing thousands of their fellow Muslims and irradiating millions more.

That is something about the older technology that might work in their favor. The blast area for something like the Hiroshima bomb is really low compared to current weapons. Iran doesn't even have a powerful enough missile to deliver a bomb that size, so the bomb would need to be even smaller. We are probably talking a 2mile area.

Remember these are Kiloton devices, not megaton like the current weapons.

A good read on how much man power it takes to enrich uranium:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-25
 

ZzZGuy

Golden Member
Nov 15, 2006
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Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: Modelworks
Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel.

Not without killing thousands of their fellow Muslims and irradiating millions more.

What makes you think any country that would want Israel destroyed would care if a few million palis died in the name of wiping out Israel? Where in the arab/persian world are palis considered anything but dirt beneath their boots that are only good for poking Israel? Yes, you hear all the outrage over the current pali/Israeli conflict but only because it is non-muslim (even worse, jews) that are killing/oppressing them (right or wrong, justified or not, post in another thread if you need to discuss this).
 

ZzZGuy

Golden Member
Nov 15, 2006
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Originally posted by: cliftonite
Let them have it, the first time they use it will also be their last.

One dirty bomb with the right wind conditions and Israel no longer exists.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,058
48,062
136
Originally posted by: ZzZGuy
Originally posted by: cliftonite
Let them have it, the first time they use it will also be their last.

One dirty bomb with the right wind conditions and Israel no longer exists.

You VASTLY overestimate the power of a dirty bomb.

On another note, it's nice to see Winnar embracing government spending as the way out of the recession.
 

Atheus

Diamond Member
Jun 7, 2005
7,313
2
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Originally posted by: TheSnowman
The Institute for Science and International Security report concludes Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon but does have enough low-enriched uranium for a single nuclear weapon.

OMG, the inevitable result of any civilian nuclear energy program. Panic!

I believe weapons have been the result of every nuclear program ever, yes, except Japan's for obvious reasons. Even they apparently maintain the ability to build a weapon at very very short notice.
 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
Iran is not going to bomb Israel
nothing is going to change.
Go to sleep peacefully or be a paranoid nut
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,058
48,062
136
What a worthless article. In other news, Iran has enough high explosives to build the triggering mechanism! EVERYBODY PANIC.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
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Originally posted by: cliftonite
Let them have it, the first time they use it will also be their last.

Yep, and all that will be destroyed is somewhere I don't give a sh!t about like Israel or New York City.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
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Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Israel is getting ready for the mission......
Maybe, but we've heard this endless times. In fact, as I write this, I remember writing this before last year.

 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
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Israel if they are going to attack will attack soon. They got a new leader. That guy always went on Foxnews and blabbered about how Iran is a serious threat and must be stopped. If he doesn't do anything his words should never be taken seriously
 

kylebisme

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2000
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Originally posted by: ZzZGuy
Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: Modelworks
Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel.

Not without killing thousands of their fellow Muslims and irradiating millions more.

What makes you think any country that would want Israel destroyed would care if a few million palis died in the name of wiping out Israel? Where in the arab/persian world are palis considered anything but dirt beneath their boots that are only good for poking Israel? Yes, you hear all the outrage over the current pali/Israeli conflict but only because it is non-muslim (even worse, jews) that are killing/oppressing them (right or wrong, justified or not, post in another thread if you need to discuss this).

If you want to stick your head in the sand to ignore all the killing and oppression which is Israel's conquest over Palestine, that is your bag, but all the same that is what Persians are furious with Israel over, as well as the rest of the Muslim world. Even if their leaders didn't give as shit about Palestinians, they couldn't take the PR of nuking thousands and irradiating millions. Regardless, even if they they shared your callous disregard for Palestinians, as others have said Iran would be leveled as retribution for any such attack on Israel.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Israel is getting ready for the mission......
:laugh:

Keep dreaming.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
I think many people are missing an equally bigger story in all of this. A backwards 3rd world dump of a nation Iran is building nuclear power facilities while the most powerful nation on earth cant build one to save its life.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
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We have had many threads on this subject already, and there are three bottom line conclusions.

1. We do not know if Iran even wants a nuclear weapon. But the more hostile we are to Iran, the more Iran needs nukes.

2. Iran sitting with one or two nukes is no real threat. And in order to even produce one nuke now, Iran would have to greatly delay its peaceful nuclear program.
The very program that can yield vast amounts of electrical energy and also enough plutonium in the spent fuel rods to produce a far larger number of nukes in
the long term.

3. So there are going to be a vast number of chicken little types saying the sky is falling because the Iranians MIGHT have enough highly enriched Uranium to make one
U235 based nuke, but we know they are idiots because they are talking extremely short term. Iran is thinking long term, and if that makes Iran much smarter than we are,
that is our bad, and not Iran's fault.

So it really defaults back to point one, the decision on Iran's part to go nuclear weapons or not, and to become a minor nuclear power or a country without a single nuke, lies
many years, something like a decade in the future. And if MAYBE WE HAD BRAIN ONE IN THE USA, we would have a more rational and Iran friendly foreign policy that gives
Iran no reason to want nukes in the first place.

Having said that, if it makes you happy, please resume your panic panic panic mode, there is an Iranian under every bed. But you can rest easy, because you know no Iranians under your bed
are Al-Quida, because Iran is Shia and Al-Quida is Sunni.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
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Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: ZzZGuy
Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: Modelworks
Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel.

Not without killing thousands of their fellow Muslims and irradiating millions more.

What makes you think any country that would want Israel destroyed would care if a few million palis died in the name of wiping out Israel? Where in the arab/persian world are palis considered anything but dirt beneath their boots that are only good for poking Israel? Yes, you hear all the outrage over the current pali/Israeli conflict but only because it is non-muslim (even worse, jews) that are killing/oppressing them (right or wrong, justified or not, post in another thread if you need to discuss this).

If you want to stick your head in the sand to ignore all the killing and oppression which is Israel's conquest over Palestine, that is your bag, but all the same that is what Persians are furious with Israel over, as well as the rest of the Muslim world. Even if their leaders didn't give as shit about Palestinians, they couldn't take the PR of nuking thousands and irradiating millions. Regardless, even if they they shared your callous disregard for Palestinians, as others have said Iran would be leveled as retribution for any such attack on Israel.

When you pull your head out of the sand, you may find that the Palestinians and the Arabs have wanted to destroy Israel.

Plenty of first strikes agaisnt Israel, yet none have suceeded. but ist shows that Israel should not trust those thatstate that they are against them.

The Iranians have no concerns about the Palestians and the PR agasint them if they were to take out Israel would not matter vs the acolades from the Muslim world

 

ZzZGuy

Golden Member
Nov 15, 2006
1,855
0
0
Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: ZzZGuy
Originally posted by: TheSnowman
Originally posted by: Modelworks
Still that is enough to cause major destruction in somewhere like Israel.

Not without killing thousands of their fellow Muslims and irradiating millions more.

What makes you think any country that would want Israel destroyed would care if a few million palis died in the name of wiping out Israel? Where in the arab/persian world are palis considered anything but dirt beneath their boots that are only good for poking Israel? Yes, you hear all the outrage over the current pali/Israeli conflict but only because it is non-muslim (even worse, jews) that are killing/oppressing them (right or wrong, justified or not, post in another thread if you need to discuss this).

If you want to stick your head in the sand to ignore all the killing and oppression which is Israel's conquest over Palestine, that is your bag, but all the same that is what Persians are furious with Israel over, as well as the rest of the Muslim world. Even if their leaders didn't give as shit about Palestinians, they couldn't take the PR of nuking thousands and irradiating millions. Regardless, even if they they shared your callous disregard for Palestinians, as others have said Iran would be leveled as retribution for any such attack on Israel.

Go back and re-read what I said, only things relevant in your reply was saying Iran is not willing to take the PR backlash from nuking Israel which I consider a non issue as there will be no more Iran and their leaders know this, biggest question to me is who is in charge and are they suicidal?