Iran, Israel and America

sammyunltd

Senior member
Jul 31, 2004
717
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Plain and simple.

What are the odds of a war, a third one in less than 8 years, involving Iran, Israel and the USA (cause they are Israel's bitch)?

With the current geo-political climate, as well as economical climate ($ of oil barrel will probably go up by $10 at every airstrike performed by the USA or Israel) taken into consideration as well..
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,530
3
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Depends, if Israel attacks first they may be on their own, I would support it. Of course it would be real hypocritical considering what our President Shit for Brains did with Iraq but fuck it, we should only worry about ourselves in this scenario.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,816
83
91
if Israel attacked Iran, they'd probably be on their own at least insofar as Iran goes (the international community might assist in defending Israel).

if Iran attacked first and hit Israel or American forces in the ME directly, I'd expect the US to drop the hammer on Iran no matter who's sitting in the oval office. probably not a major ground offensive as long as we're bogged down in Iraq/Afghanistan, but air/long-range strikes to be sure with maybe some special ops in the mix.

I don't see a likely scenario in which the US would attack Iran first, no matter how much the far left likes to demonize Bush.
 

Socio

Golden Member
May 19, 2002
1,730
2
81
I think the odds are very good Iran gets hit before the next US president gets sworn in.

If it is the US then it won?t be a war where a ground invasion takes place likely a hit and run on their nuke facilities.

If Israel hits Iran they might do more than just hit the nuke facilities and run, they make use it as opportunity to break Iran thus break Hezbollah.

If it was my decision, it would be a top secret joint mission with Israel and the US, go in fast low at night, with unmarked planes hit them and back out fast. Then when questioning and finger pointing starts use the Iran defense, deny deny deny.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
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If I thought the leadership of either Israel or the USA were rational, I would say the probability of war would be very low.

Since neither are rational IMHO, its a who the hell can predict on any rational basis?
 

Butterbean

Banned
Oct 12, 2006
918
1
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It's a lock Israel is going to attack Iran. How involved the US is is another issue. The NIE report last Dec tried to publicly undercut Bush admin by saying Iran was not a nuclear threat and would not be until 2012-15. Israel was stunned by this stunt (not unlike Turkey's reaction about congresss passing resolutions about genocide to embarass Turkey and threaten their logistical support for the war in Iraq). Now on top of a congress that plays games with realities and support for Israel the Democrats have a candidate that Hamas supports openly.

Like Carter all the bad actors see Obama will not opposse them strongly and indeed shares some of their views. So Israel see's its being painted into a corner. One one side is the nut job in Iran who wants to see war and chaos so the Mahdi can return - and on the other side you have allies who are growing weak, dishonest and think teaching 5 yr olds masturbation and gender dysphoria is a more pressing need. Israel will be using tactical nukes (they already been practicing) and the attack needs to be with a year or so - and definately sooner if Obama wins (Ex Mossad cheir said maybe between election and any inauguration



Former Mossad Chief Says Attack Iran
http://www.reuters.com/article...2-Jul-2008+PRN20080702

Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/t...rld/article1290331.ece


"What the Israeli reaction to the NIE report means for the peace process."

"But last week?when the National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran stated that Iran is no longer developing nuclear weapons?this long memory came back into play. Israel, again, felt the chilling threat of possible abandonment by its closest ally. So much so that an Israeli Cabinet member compared the reactions to theNIE report to those detailing the "transports to Auschwitz." A long memory indeed.

"With today's NIE, we see the entire U.S. intelligence community not only, in effect, coming down on the side of the doves but concluding that the threat animating the hawks doesn't even exist," wrote Fred Kaplan in Slate. The next day, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that his working assumption would not change. As far as Jerusalem is concerned, Iran still has an active nuclear program.

The NIE was a wake-up call for all Israelis who believed that America and Israel saw the Iranian threat through the same lens"


http://www.slate.com/id/2179713/


The Democrats and the anti Bush authors of NIE report tried to use report to block any action and they just made it more likely. No surprise the Democrats would pull rug out from other allies since it betrayed its own troops in grand fashion when it stuck knife in them when insurgencey began.

Good people cant vote for Democrats anymore.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Well, the ball is in Iran's court for the most part.

And if Israel thinks Iran is getting nukes, they won't listen to us either.

The latest IAEA reports are pretty troubling. I have no good idea what's going to happen. I just don't believe our government wants another war, or risk gas prices go insanely high.

Fern
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
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Israel did not trust Iraq and made sure of it. Same goes for Syria.

No matter what Iran denies one week, they then state/do something opposite the next.
It may be their loudmouth, however,whoever is pulling the strings in Iran is tolerating/accepting/encouraging such language.
Israel is monitoring what is happening w/ respect to the nuclear facility/development.

Iraq tried to play the shell game and lost.
Iran may be trying the same game, feeling GWB&Co are to weak to do anything. Iran knows the UN will not do anything.

Iran thinks that the US can control Israel and Iran can control the US via the oil threats; they will find out otherwise.


If Israel feels the world was not going to do anything, they will.
Everytime they have put their safety in the hands of the international diplomatic community, they have gotten burned.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Originally posted by: bamacre
Originally posted by: Fern
Well, the ball is in Iran's court for the most part.

How so? :confused:

They're jacking the inspectors around. Heated rhetoric is no help either.

They could at least proceed in such a way as to give the IAEA assurances.

They're either pursuing weapons, or wilfully making Israel nervous for no good reason.

Fern
 

palehorse

Lifer
Dec 21, 2005
11,521
0
76
Originally posted by: Butterbean
It's a lock Israel is going to attack Iran. How involved the US is is another issue. The NIE report last Dec tried to publicly undercut Bush admin by saying Iran was not a nuclear threat and would not be until 2012-15. Israel was stunned by this stunt (not unlike Turkey's reaction about congresss passing resolutions about genocide to embarass Turkey and threaten their logistical support for the war in Iraq). Now on top of a congress that plays games with realities and support for Israel the Democrats have a candidate that Hamas supports openly.

Like Carter all the bad actors see Obama will not opposse them strongly and indeed shares some of their views. So Israel see's its being painted into a corner. One one side is the nut job in Iran who wants to see war and chaos so the Mahdi can return - and on the other side you have allies who are growing weak, dishonest and think teaching 5 yr olds masturbation and gender dysphoria is a more pressing need. Israel will be using tactical nukes (they already been practicing) and the attack needs to be with a year or so - and definately sooner if Obama wins (Ex Mossad cheir said maybe between election and any inauguration



Former Mossad Chief Says Attack Iran
http://www.reuters.com/article...2-Jul-2008+PRN20080702

Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/t...rld/article1290331.ece


"What the Israeli reaction to the NIE report means for the peace process."

"But last week?when the National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran stated that Iran is no longer developing nuclear weapons?this long memory came back into play. Israel, again, felt the chilling threat of possible abandonment by its closest ally. So much so that an Israeli Cabinet member compared the reactions to theNIE report to those detailing the "transports to Auschwitz." A long memory indeed.

"With today's NIE, we see the entire U.S. intelligence community not only, in effect, coming down on the side of the doves but concluding that the threat animating the hawks doesn't even exist," wrote Fred Kaplan in Slate. The next day, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that his working assumption would not change. As far as Jerusalem is concerned, Iran still has an active nuclear program.

The NIE was a wake-up call for all Israelis who believed that America and Israel saw the Iranian threat through the same lens"


http://www.slate.com/id/2179713/


The Democrats and the anti Bush authors of NIE report tried to use report to block any action and they just made it more likely. No surprise the Democrats would pull rug out from other allies since it betrayed its own troops in grand fashion when it stuck knife in them when insurgencey began.

Good people cant vote for Democrats anymore.
ummm, you DO know that the NIE is produced by the Intelligence Community (primarily the CIA), and not Congress, right?

Also, the NIE didnt actually undercut the Bush admin with its Iran analysis - the media did. The early NIE leaks were selective to make it look like Iran had stopped working on a bomb, while the NIE's complete analysis was not at all conclusive. Someone, somewhere, manipulated the story. By the time the entire unclassified portion of the NIE was released, the media had already been selling that lie for several weeks. Very few MSM folks recanted their previous bullshit when the entire NIE came out.

The complete unclassified portion of the NIE stated that we simply do not have enough sources or information to properly analyze Iran's weapons program(s) at this time.

We simply need more time to gather more and better intel. This will allow us to better determine the veracity and reliability of the info... (you know, all those things we DIDNT do before we went into Iraq...)

The NIE was surprisingly candid about the current lack of information and sources, but it was certainly not meant to undercut anyone or anything.
 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.
 

palehorse

Lifer
Dec 21, 2005
11,521
0
76
Originally posted by: Aimster
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.
and?

Israel flies over countries without permission all the time. We'd never physically stop Israel by shooting them down, and it's not our job to defend Iran, so what's your point?

Are you saying that an Israeli strike against Iran would justify an Iranian attack against the U.S.?

I don't think the world will agree...
 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,711
6
76
Originally posted by: Fern
Originally posted by: bamacre
Originally posted by: Fern
Well, the ball is in Iran's court for the most part.

How so? :confused:

They're jacking the inspectors around. Heated rhetoric is no help either.

They could at least proceed in such a way as to give the IAEA assurances.

They're either pursuing weapons, or wilfully making Israel nervous for no good reason.

Fern

I wonder why they are jacking the inspectors around, maybe because for each and every inspection to date they have found absolutely nothing? The IAEA has been there and done that and clearly there is no threat. As for making Israel nervous, thats propaganda. How about Israel making Iran nervous? Or is that only a one way street? A double standard? I don't remember it being on the news about Israels "test flights" to Iran's border.

It goes both ways and I for one am sick of the ignorant propaganda I see about Iran. This is Iraq all over again and if you don't see that get your head out of the sand.
 

BrownTown

Diamond Member
Dec 1, 2005
5,314
1
0
Originally posted by: bamacre
Originally posted by: Fern
Well, the ball is in Iran's court for the most part.

How so? :confused:

Yeah, that statement makes absolutely no sense, there is NO WAY Iran is ever going to attack Israel or the USA, they are not suicidal. The one doing the attacking will be Israel, the only question is how Iran will respond to an Israeli first strike.
 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
Originally posted by: palehorse
Originally posted by: Aimster
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.
and?

Israel flies over countries without permission all the time. We'd never physically stop Israel by shooting them down, and it's not our job to defend Iran, so what's your point?

Are you saying that an Israeli strike against Iran would justify an Iranian attack against the U.S.?

I don't think the world will agree...

So Iran could fly over Iraq and bomb Israel and the U.S should not do a damn thing about it.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Socio
I think the odds are very good Iran gets hit before the next US president gets sworn in.

If it is the US then it won?t be a war where a ground invasion takes place likely a hit and run on their nuke facilities.

If Israel hits Iran they might do more than just hit the nuke facilities and run, they make use it as opportunity to break Iran thus break Hezbollah.

If it was my decision, it would be a top secret joint mission with Israel and the US, go in fast low at night, with unmarked planes hit them and back out fast. Then when questioning and finger pointing starts use the Iran defense, deny deny deny.

there's about a 16% chance.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
To Js80,

You may cling to religion but you know nothing of God.

You cling to guns because you have irrational fears.

You are an all too common idiot and that makes me me despair.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
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Originally posted by: Aimster
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.

Was Jordan in on the attack by Israel against Iraq?
They flew over Jordanian airspace!

Jordan had an air force and they could have alerted Iraq.
Iraq did not blame Jordan afterwords.

At times it is easier for a country to state Mea Culpa and keep on their business in order to stay out of the pissing match

 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
Originally posted by: Aimster
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.

Was Jordan in on the attack by Israel against Iraq?
They flew over Jordanian airspace!

Jordan had an air force and they could have alerted Iraq.
Iraq did not blame Jordan afterwords.

At times it is easier for a country to state Mea Culpa and keep on their business in order to stay out of the pissing match

Israeli planes attacked Iraq because they flew in a formation that made radar systems think they were a commercial airliner.

Israel has to refuel over Iraq.
That is clearly not going to go unnoticed.
 

DarkThinker

Platinum Member
Mar 17, 2007
2,822
0
0
Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
Originally posted by: Aimster
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.

Was Jordan in on the attack by Israel against Iraq?
They flew over Jordanian airspace!

Jordan had an air force and they could have alerted Iraq.
Iraq did not blame Jordan afterwords.

At times it is easier for a country to state Mea Culpa and keep on their business in order to stay out of the pissing match

Ya, but every time, it's fine for Israel to interfere in everyone else's business.
They can fly over other countries without authorization, they can destroy structures suspicious to them in other countries while warning that any retaliations would be meat with a severe reaction , they can siege other countries, they can take on cross continental missions if they need to and that's all fine....because after all, it is Israel. That is what will lead to any major war in the region.

Israel will not remain the only Nuclear Power in the middle east and it doesn't have the right to keep forcing other countries from acquiring the technology they have acquired too. The only way I can support Israel's calls for the prevention of any other country from acquiring nuclear weapons is if they were the first to get rid of that huge stockpile of nuclear warheads that are ready to be launched at any ME capital they need be launched at.
 

BarneyFife

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2001
3,875
0
76
Originally posted by: DarkThinker
Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
Originally posted by: Aimster
If Israel attacks Iran they have to fly over Iraq.
U.S would allow it. U.S would be in on it.

Was Jordan in on the attack by Israel against Iraq?
They flew over Jordanian airspace!

Jordan had an air force and they could have alerted Iraq.
Iraq did not blame Jordan afterwords.

At times it is easier for a country to state Mea Culpa and keep on their business in order to stay out of the pissing match

Ya, but every time, it's fine for Israel to interfere in everyone else's business.
They can fly over other countries without authorization, they can destroy structures suspicious to them in other countries while warning that any retaliations would be meat with a severe reaction , they can siege other countries, they can take on cross continental missions if they need to and that's all fine....because after all, it is Israel. That is what will lead to any major war in the region.

Israel will not remain the only Nuclear Power in the middle east and it doesn't have the right to keep forcing other countries from acquiring the technology they have acquired too. The only way I can support Israel's calls for the prevention of any other country from acquiring nuclear weapons is if they were the first to get rid of that huge stockpile of nuclear warheads that are ready to be launched at any ME capital they need be launched at.

A lot of rich Jews in this country have brainwashed the American people that we must defend Israel and give them billions in welfare every year etc... If you speak against it, you're anti-semetic etc... I don't want to keep on getting involved in this crap. Israel is the equivalent of a friend that keeps on getting into trouble and drags you down with them. They are a poison. I'm American, not Israeli. Don't drag us into your shit.