Iran Deal - Outline only - Details due 30 June

[Jhhnn]

It is completely facetious to pretend the problem is solved peacefully.
Iran has cast down inspections, they aren't even a possibility.

Their production facilities are now & always have been under IAEA supervision since before their first centrifuge cascade began production.

What part of no HEU, no weapons do you fail to comprehend?

 

[cabri]

Please. None of it matters if weapons grade materials are not produced. That is the purpose of the NPT & inspections entirely. It's really just that simple, despite whatever shit gets thrown against the wall. Under the proposed agreement, it would take them at least a year from the highly detectable production of HEU to create enough for a single weapon.

Weapons related research? It's highly likely that they've done some, just like any other nuclear weapons capable state. That knowledge might be vital down the road. Acting on that knowledge is another matter entirely. See above.

And as of now, they still are not abiding by the NPT.

 

[Jhhnn]

And as of now, they still are not abiding by the NPT.

As of always, their production facilities & their reactor are, & that's all that really matters.

The rest is just the usual Birther/Benghazi mindfuck of FUD.

 

[cabri]

They refuse access to other facilities. How can one be certain?

Trust but verify. But they refuse to allow verification.

If they were allowing, this dog and pony show would not be hapoening.

Iran does not want the UN poking around certain SENSITIVE areas because of what might be discovered.

 

[K1052]

Please. None of it matters if weapons grade materials are not produced. That is the purpose of the NPT & inspections entirely. It's really just that simple, despite whatever shit gets thrown against the wall. Under the proposed agreement, it would take them at least a year from the highly detectable production of HEU to create enough for a single weapon.

Weapons related research? It's highly likely that they've done some, just like any other nuclear weapons capable state. That knowledge might be vital down the road. Acting on that knowledge is another matter entirely. See above.

I was speaking more to Khamenei's position on nuclear weapons, specifically forbidding them and considering them immoral under Islam. Presumably the Iranian government doesn't want any public disclosures that expose past efforts which would run contrary to that line, regardless of what the US actually knows. They're trying to figure a way out from between the rock and rhetorical hard place.

 

[werepossum]

I was speaking more to Khamenei's position on nuclear weapons, specifically forbidding them and considering them immoral under Islam. Presumably the Iranian government doesn't want any public disclosures that expose past efforts which would run contrary to that line, regardless of what the US actually knows. They're trying to figure a way out from between the rock and rhetorical hard place.

His followers very much understand taqiyya, so there is no rock and rhetorical hard place. If and when Khamenei unveils Iran as a nuclear state, he will be celebrated for lying to the West. Even those Iranians who do not want nuclear war will understand and not hold it against him.

I very much doubt that Obama has the balls to walk away from something he has so publicly proclaimed to be his goal, so the question now becomes will our allies support a future President when Iran is found baldly violating the eventual terms of the agreement. Reinstating punitive sanctions won't be that easy once our allies' corporations have reinvested in Iran.

 

[Jhhnn]

His followers very much understand taqiyya, so there is no rock and rhetorical hard place. If and when Khamenei unveils Iran as a nuclear state, he will be celebrated for lying to the West. Even those Iranians who do not want nuclear war will understand and not hold it against him.

I very much doubt that Obama has the balls to walk away from something he has so publicly proclaimed to be his goal, so the question now becomes will our allies support a future President when Iran is found baldly violating the eventual terms of the agreement. Reinstating punitive sanctions won't be that easy once our allies' corporations have reinvested in Iran.

When all else fails, go for the dark conspiracy theory fantasy via multiple innuendos, huh?

It'll sell in Glenbeckistan, I'm sure.

 

[Jhhnn]

They refuse access to other facilities. How can one be certain?

Trust but verify. But they refuse to allow verification.

If they were allowing, this dog and pony show would not be hapoening.

Iran does not want the UN poking around certain SENSITIVE areas because of what might be discovered.

The IAEA has not alleged that those facilities are production or storage sites but rather that they might have been used for weapons research.

Which is a whole new interpretation of the rules designed to discredit the Iranians for the war mongering purposes of the Neocons.

It's not just water under the bridge, it's immaterial water under the bridge.

We don't need an answer to that question to arrive at a mutually beneficial agreement about the future, about where we go from here.

Dance around it all you want, but the only thing that really matters is the proposition I laid out above, that weapons can't be made w/o weapons grade material. With this agreement, the IAEA assures us that they would detect any attempted breakout well in advance & an agreement would obviously give Iran a lot fewer reasons to even attempt it.

So what's next? Run the "Crazy Mullahs" trope up the flagpole to see who salutes?

 

[K1052]

His followers very much understand taqiyya, so there is no rock and rhetorical hard place. If and when Khamenei unveils Iran as a nuclear state, he will be celebrated for lying to the West. Even those Iranians who do not want nuclear war will understand and not hold it against him.

I very much doubt that Obama has the balls to walk away from something he has so publicly proclaimed to be his goal, so the question now becomes will our allies support a future President when Iran is found baldly violating the eventual terms of the agreement. Reinstating punitive sanctions won't be that easy once our allies' corporations have reinvested in Iran.

Even though I don't agree at all with your assessment and it doesn't share much in common with reality lets examine the alternatives shall we?

1) Continue and expand economic sanctions which will not affect timeline for a weapon.

2) Limited military airstrikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure which will merely delay development of a weapon.

3) Invasion to totally disassemble their program and follow on occupation.

4) Use of nuclear weapons to obliterate project sites.

Pick your poison.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Drop dead date is now July 10 (Friday).

 

[Jhhnn]

At the bottom of it all lies a fundamental question- Are we yet willing to admit that our 37 year policy of forcing regime change in Iran has failed & will continue to fail? That they're big enough, smart enough & obviously tough enough to deserve respect if not affection?

If we are, then we must abandon the rhetoric of demonization used to sustain it if we're to do something more constructive. We also need to recognize that the Bush Clan exploited Iran's nuclear program for domestic political purposes as much as anything else. They wove it right in to the Tough On Terrar! fear mongering of post 9/11 propaganda.

It's time for us to turn away from that. If we can forge an agreement, we can assert our position of leadership in a changing world. We just need to make it strong enough to be honored & sweet enough to be accepted by Iran. If we can't accomplish that, it'll erode our leadership position immensely simply because we want more from Iran than the rest of the players. They'll just find ways around sanctions to do business w/ Iran.

Regardless of what we do, other than invade, Iran will likely become the strongest player in the region so we should deal with that rationally. The raving FUD that'll come out of Congress won't be that at all, I suspect.

Repubs intend to allow Obama no victories regardless of the consequences.

 

[chucky2]

lol

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Vast right-wing conspiracy!

 

[Jhhnn]

Vast right-wing conspiracy!

More like vast astroturfed right wing denial.

It's what happens when honest assessment is set aside in favor of ongoing policy failure & the rhetoric of demonization used to extend it. It's all bought, paid for & trumped up by the Israel Lobby, anyway. Ask Tom Cotton.