- Jun 11, 2004
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Huckabee Tops Final GOP Power Rankings, Paul Remains Solid Third Place
by: Chase Martyn
Friday (12/28) at 14:30 PM
The Republican race in Iowa remains as unpredictable as it was a month ago. Gov. Mike Huckabee surged, waned, and has steadied his position slightly ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam. Sen. John McCain, who was close to writing Iowa off a month ago, has received newspaper endorsements and renewed attention to coincide with his improving chances nationally.
Today, Iowa Independent releases its final round of power rankings, designed to answer the question, "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?" The rankings are derived from impressions we received from activists, campaign officials, seasoned political observers, and rank-and-file caucus-goers, but at the most basic level, they are based on the gut feelings and instincts of our writers, who have watched the race unfold here from the beginning.
A lot can change in six days, and we expect that it will. But if the caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:
First Place
Mike Huckabee -- No doubt about it, Huckabee has firmed up the support of social conservatives and his nice guy routine resonates with enough people that he would likely win Iowa if the caucuses were held tonight. He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field.
Second Place
Mitt Romney -- It's time to see if Romney's experienced, well-paid staff knows how to close the deal. Romney's poll numbers have rebounded in the state in recent days and the questions his surrogates have raised about Huckabee's years as governor in Arkansas continue to sway small numbers of voters. But it remains to be seen if his strong organization will give him an edge over Huckabee, whose supporters are less organized but perhaps greater in number.
Third Place
Ron Paul -- Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations -- especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.
Chase Martyn :: Huckabee Tops Final GOP Power Rankings, Paul Remains Solid Third Place
Fourth Place
John McCain -- Upward Momentum -- Undecided Republicans are breaking toward McCain more than most would have expected, and the additional attention he's receiving in New Hampshire and South Carolina is translating to more coverage in Iowa in the final days of the campaign. While newspaper endorsements may not make much of a difference in the GOP race, the surprising number of Iowa newspapers who have endorsed the Arizona senator have at least made more caucus-goers receptive to his message. And recent news from Pakistan gives him an opportunity to highlight the importance of national security experience.
Fifth Place
Fred Thompson -- We can again report that we're hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we've said that so many times in the past six months that we don't necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it's hard to believe he hasn't gained some traction in the state.
Sixth Place
Rudy Giuliani -- Who would have believed that "America's Mayor" would have so much trouble coalescing support in Iowa? Perhaps Florida will be better for him.
Seventh Place
Duncan Hunter
Source: Iowa Independent
I have a hard time believing Huck will pull away from the pack as many of the national polls claim. Many Christians are afraid of Huck the more they learn about him. Secondly I think Huck peeked a little too early and now fox news and others are viciously attacking him. Look for everyone to be cramped together with the winner taking < than 27% of the vote.