Iowa Independent Republican Power rankings

HeXploiT

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2004
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Huckabee Tops Final GOP Power Rankings, Paul Remains Solid Third Place
by: Chase Martyn
Friday (12/28) at 14:30 PM

The Republican race in Iowa remains as unpredictable as it was a month ago. Gov. Mike Huckabee surged, waned, and has steadied his position slightly ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam. Sen. John McCain, who was close to writing Iowa off a month ago, has received newspaper endorsements and renewed attention to coincide with his improving chances nationally.

Today, Iowa Independent releases its final round of power rankings, designed to answer the question, "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?" The rankings are derived from impressions we received from activists, campaign officials, seasoned political observers, and rank-and-file caucus-goers, but at the most basic level, they are based on the gut feelings and instincts of our writers, who have watched the race unfold here from the beginning.

A lot can change in six days, and we expect that it will. But if the caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:

First Place

Mike Huckabee -- No doubt about it, Huckabee has firmed up the support of social conservatives and his nice guy routine resonates with enough people that he would likely win Iowa if the caucuses were held tonight. He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field.

Second Place

Mitt Romney -- It's time to see if Romney's experienced, well-paid staff knows how to close the deal. Romney's poll numbers have rebounded in the state in recent days and the questions his surrogates have raised about Huckabee's years as governor in Arkansas continue to sway small numbers of voters. But it remains to be seen if his strong organization will give him an edge over Huckabee, whose supporters are less organized but perhaps greater in number.

Third Place

Ron Paul -- Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations -- especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.
Chase Martyn :: Huckabee Tops Final GOP Power Rankings, Paul Remains Solid Third Place
Fourth Place

John McCain -- Upward Momentum -- Undecided Republicans are breaking toward McCain more than most would have expected, and the additional attention he's receiving in New Hampshire and South Carolina is translating to more coverage in Iowa in the final days of the campaign. While newspaper endorsements may not make much of a difference in the GOP race, the surprising number of Iowa newspapers who have endorsed the Arizona senator have at least made more caucus-goers receptive to his message. And recent news from Pakistan gives him an opportunity to highlight the importance of national security experience.

Fifth Place

Fred Thompson -- We can again report that we're hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we've said that so many times in the past six months that we don't necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it's hard to believe he hasn't gained some traction in the state.

Sixth Place

Rudy Giuliani -- Who would have believed that "America's Mayor" would have so much trouble coalescing support in Iowa? Perhaps Florida will be better for him.

Seventh Place

Duncan Hunter

Source: Iowa Independent

I have a hard time believing Huck will pull away from the pack as many of the national polls claim. Many Christians are afraid of Huck the more they learn about him. Secondly I think Huck peeked a little too early and now fox news and others are viciously attacking him. Look for everyone to be cramped together with the winner taking < than 27% of the vote.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
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Yeah, I expect it to be close among the top 3 or so.

I'll be impressed if RP get's double digits and 3rd place.

Fern
 

bamacre

Lifer
Jul 1, 2004
21,029
2
61
3rd place would be a good start for Paul.

Like him or not, you have to admit, he has done nothing but increase his numbers.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
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Originally posted by: Perry404
Huckabee Tops Final GOP Power Rankings, Paul Remains Solid Third Place
by: Chase Martyn
Friday (12/28) at 14:30 PM

The Republican race in Iowa remains as unpredictable as it was a month ago. Gov. Mike Huckabee surged, waned, and has steadied his position slightly ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who was expected to move up after his recent swing through the state and his high-profile Iowa endorsements, has failed to gain much steam. Sen. John McCain, who was close to writing Iowa off a month ago, has received newspaper endorsements and renewed attention to coincide with his improving chances nationally.

Today, Iowa Independent releases its final round of power rankings, designed to answer the question, "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?" The rankings are derived from impressions we received from activists, campaign officials, seasoned political observers, and rank-and-file caucus-goers, but at the most basic level, they are based on the gut feelings and instincts of our writers, who have watched the race unfold here from the beginning.

A lot can change in six days, and we expect that it will. But if the caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would turn out:

First Place

Mike Huckabee -- No doubt about it, Huckabee has firmed up the support of social conservatives and his nice guy routine resonates with enough people that he would likely win Iowa if the caucuses were held tonight. He drew 400 people to a rally in Orange City on the Saturday before Christmas and another 200 people in Sheldon the same day. He seems to generate more enthusiasm than any other candidates in the Republican field.

Second Place

Mitt Romney -- It's time to see if Romney's experienced, well-paid staff knows how to close the deal. Romney's poll numbers have rebounded in the state in recent days and the questions his surrogates have raised about Huckabee's years as governor in Arkansas continue to sway small numbers of voters. But it remains to be seen if his strong organization will give him an edge over Huckabee, whose supporters are less organized but perhaps greater in number.

Third Place

Ron Paul -- Rival campaigns are beginning to nervously speculate that Paul will finish in the top three on January 3. Paul broke double digits in at least two polls for the first time this week and he seems particularly strong in areas of the state where the media has less of an impact on political deliberations -- especially in rural northwest and southern Iowa. Check out a Ron Paul supporters' websites and you'll see detailed discussions about caucus rules and strategy. The Paulites are more ready for caucus night than most observers realize.
Chase Martyn :: Huckabee Tops Final GOP Power Rankings, Paul Remains Solid Third Place
Fourth Place

John McCain -- Upward Momentum -- Undecided Republicans are breaking toward McCain more than most would have expected, and the additional attention he's receiving in New Hampshire and South Carolina is translating to more coverage in Iowa in the final days of the campaign. While newspaper endorsements may not make much of a difference in the GOP race, the surprising number of Iowa newspapers who have endorsed the Arizona senator have at least made more caucus-goers receptive to his message. And recent news from Pakistan gives him an opportunity to highlight the importance of national security experience.

Fifth Place

Fred Thompson -- We can again report that we're hearing reports that a newly energized Thompson has hit the campaign trail in Iowa. But we've said that so many times in the past six months that we don't necessarily believe it ourselves. Still, with Rep. Steve King and prominent social conservative Bill Salier on the campaign trail for him, it's hard to believe he hasn't gained some traction in the state.

Sixth Place

Rudy Giuliani -- Who would have believed that "America's Mayor" would have so much trouble coalescing support in Iowa? Perhaps Florida will be better for him.

Seventh Place

Duncan Hunter

Source: Iowa Independent

I have a hard time believing Huck will pull away from the pack as many of the national polls claim. Many Christians are afraid of Huck the more they learn about him. Secondly I think Huck peeked a little too early and now fox news and others are viciously attacking him. Look for everyone to be cramped together with the winner taking < than 27% of the vote.

A lot of the attacks on Huckabee are baseless.

Romney likes to say Huckabee raised taxes more than he did. Well any increase in taxes in one of the poorest states in the country will always be more than a tax increase in the Peoples Republic of MA. The tax rates in AR have no where to go but up, where as the tax rates in MA cant really go up as they are already as high as feasibly possible. The bottom line is AR improved quite a bit under Huckabee. Huckabee did far more than his predecessors including Bill Clinton.

The problem with Huckabee is, he is to religious. And FYI Fox has attacked him well before he came out of no where. 3 months ago they were saying he was to much of a hick to get nominated...

My predictions.

Huckabee wins Iowa.
McCain steals NH from Romney.
Romney eeks out SC.
Guliani wins Florida by a large margin.

It'll be a 4 way horse race going into Super Tuesday. Who ever eventually wins the Republican nomination isn't going to have a majority of delegates. If I had to pick, its going to be Huckabee or Romney to get the nomination.
 

bamacre

Lifer
Jul 1, 2004
21,029
2
61
IIRC, NH has a lot of Independent voters, which could be very good for Paul.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
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Originally posted by: bamacre
IIRC, NH has a lot of Independent voters, which could be very good for Paul.

He'll do well, probably better than Huckabee, but NH is Romney or McCain. McCain is surging at just the right time win NH. Huckabee is far to socially conservative and too religious to do much in NH. Paul has a chance to place 3rd in a lot of primaries, but there isnt a single one where is #1 or #2.

Paul needs to win one of the four first big ones and right now to have any sliver of hope to do well on Super Tuesday let a lone win the nomination.

If he doesnt win in Iowa, NH, SC or Florida hes not going to get past Super Tuesday. Right now, hes in 3-4 place in all, and in national polls is still in the high single digits low teens well behind Rudy, Mitt, or Mike.
 

brxndxn

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2001
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Originally posted by: Wreckem
Originally posted by: bamacre
IIRC, NH has a lot of Independent voters, which could be very good for Paul.

He'll do well, probably better than Huckabee, but NH is Romney or McCain. McCain is surging at just the right time win NH. Huckabee is far to socially conservative and too religious to do much in NH. Paul has a chance to place 3rd in a lot of primaries, but there isnt a single one where is #1 or #2.

Paul needs to win one of the four first big ones and right now to have any sliver of hope to do well on Super Tuesday let a lone win the nomination.

If he doesnt win in Iowa, NH, SC or Florida hes not going to get past Super Tuesday. Right now, hes in 3-4 place in all, and in national polls is still in the high single digits low teens well behind Rudy, Mitt, or Mike.

I think there will be a Paul win in NH. It's delusional to think any other candidate has more REAL support - unless you actually believe the media.

Pissed-off non-voters are becoming voters to vote for Ron Paul. Lifetime Democrats are registering Republican to vote for Ron Paul. People that have never donated to any part of the political process are donating big to Ron Paul.

 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,711
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Originally posted by: brxndxn
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Originally posted by: bamacre
IIRC, NH has a lot of Independent voters, which could be very good for Paul.

He'll do well, probably better than Huckabee, but NH is Romney or McCain. McCain is surging at just the right time win NH. Huckabee is far to socially conservative and too religious to do much in NH. Paul has a chance to place 3rd in a lot of primaries, but there isnt a single one where is #1 or #2.

Paul needs to win one of the four first big ones and right now to have any sliver of hope to do well on Super Tuesday let a lone win the nomination.

If he doesnt win in Iowa, NH, SC or Florida hes not going to get past Super Tuesday. Right now, hes in 3-4 place in all, and in national polls is still in the high single digits low teens well behind Rudy, Mitt, or Mike.

I think there will be a Paul win in NH. It's delusional to think any other candidate has more REAL support - unless you actually believe the media.

Pissed-off non-voters are becoming voters to vote for Ron Paul. Lifetime Democrats are registering Republican to vote for Ron Paul. People that have never donated to any part of the political process are donating big to Ron Paul.

Exactly. Naysayers are in for a surprise :D
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,511
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Originally posted by: brxndxn
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Originally posted by: bamacre
IIRC, NH has a lot of Independent voters, which could be very good for Paul.

He'll do well, probably better than Huckabee, but NH is Romney or McCain. McCain is surging at just the right time win NH. Huckabee is far to socially conservative and too religious to do much in NH. Paul has a chance to place 3rd in a lot of primaries, but there isnt a single one where is #1 or #2.

Paul needs to win one of the four first big ones and right now to have any sliver of hope to do well on Super Tuesday let a lone win the nomination.

If he doesnt win in Iowa, NH, SC or Florida hes not going to get past Super Tuesday. Right now, hes in 3-4 place in all, and in national polls is still in the high single digits low teens well behind Rudy, Mitt, or Mike.

I think there will be a Paul win in NH. It's delusional to think any other candidate has more REAL support - unless you actually believe the media.

Pissed-off non-voters are becoming voters to vote for Ron Paul. Lifetime Democrats are registering Republican to vote for Ron Paul. People that have never donated to any part of the political process are donating big to Ron Paul.

I think you are the delusional one.

Its not the media. The media reports based off of the results of polls. Polls are done by the media, independent polling companies, and the campaigns themselves.

Paul hasnt cracked 10% in New Hampshire on ANY major poll. Polls are more accurate than Ron Paul zombies would like people to think.

When Paul is about 8% with a week and a half to go, I seriously dont think he can catch Romney or McCain. And no the margin of error isnt 20%...

Like I said in another thread. I cannot wait for Feb 5. This Ron Paul crap will be over. The coffin will be nailed shut.

 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
In a 7 person republican field, a candidate has to poll 14.3% to be average. Given the fact that many won't even do average, we are talking a probable 20% or better to be in the top three. And damn near 30% to be a front runner.

And as the field thins, the bar gets raised. After that the calculus gets even weirder. In the Giuliani case, as McCain goes up, it hurts mainly Giuliani, and in theory it works the same way for both. So if one of the two drops their constituency may bolt to the other, but in the Ron Paul case, its hard to see that working into any big jumps in poll numbers for Paul as weaker candidates drop.

On the democratic side, the big three are Edwards, Obama, and Hillary. With Hillary probably the most centrists of the three. All are acceptable to most democrats but those democrats that lean left are more likely to be happier with Obama or Edwards. And Dodd could well move up also because he is the only one doing a damn thing in the Senate. So as the field thins its hard to see Hillary picking up supporters of other dropped out candidates. Biden is another dark horse who could surge if events break his way.

But my guess is that the early primaries will split support. The end winner on both sides may be the candidate who can best appeal to the supporters of candidate who drop out.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,808
83
91
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Originally posted by: bamacre
IIRC, NH has a lot of Independent voters, which could be very good for Paul.

He'll do well, probably better than Huckabee, but NH is Romney or McCain. McCain is surging at just the right time win NH. Huckabee is far to socially conservative and too religious to do much in NH. Paul has a chance to place 3rd in a lot of primaries, but there isnt a single one where is #1 or #2.

Paul needs to win one of the four first big ones and right now to have any sliver of hope to do well on Super Tuesday let a lone win the nomination.

If he doesnt win in Iowa, NH, SC or Florida hes not going to get past Super Tuesday. Right now, hes in 3-4 place in all, and in national polls is still in the high single digits low teens well behind Rudy, Mitt, or Mike.

I think NH is really going to depend on what happens with the democratic caucus in Iowa... if Hillary wins, independents in NH might vote dem to vote against Hillary, and try to put the brakes on that train, which is good news for Obama, but bad news for McCain, whose only hope is that the I's vote for him.