Interesting poll development. Hillary is now UP in Wisconsin and Down in Texas?

[techs]

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html
http://americanresearchgroup.com/

American Research Group poll (second link) shows Hilary beating Obama in Wisconsin by 6 percent. Yet every other poll has Obama ahead by about 5 percentage points.

In Texas the same American Research Group had Obama ahead by 6 percent while every other poll has Hillary ahead by 8 to an astounding 16 percent.

Who is the American Research Group?

 

[miketheidiot]

cnn has obama and hillary at a dead tie in texas.

 

[techs]

Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

 

[Arkaign]

Polling is pretty unreliable, and the factors vary widely. The only accurate poll would be God Himself telling us how people are going to vote. Short of that, you get varying degrees of ambiguity and obviousness.

 

[Arkaign]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

That's pure opinion, and I have seen zero credible evidence to support it.

Polls are stupid, but the ones I've seen show McCain beating Hillary by a point or two, and Obama beating McCain by a point or two.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

we have open primaries in texas. so, yes.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

I think you're reaching.

 

[Fern]

How can one polling company be so different than all the others?

Basically: Sample size, questions asked, polling techniques (phone, whatever), assumptions utilized etc.

I'd bet if every organization were given the exact same set of polling data they'd still come up with different results. You've got to "massage" data with assumptions and try to extroplate it to the broader populace.

The last cencus data is from 2000. They've even got to extrapolate that somehow to 2008.

Fern

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

I think it's fair to say that you have now taken the crown from McOwen as ATPN's king of mindless incessant trolling.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

Let's cut your spin and trolling. Texas does have open Primary, and not only can a Republican "cross over" and vote against Hillary, they can do it twice. There are caucuses in the evening where an additional 65 delegates are selected, and each voter is eligible to vote twice.

In other words, your Queen is toast. :laugh:

 

[CellarDoor]

The ARG poll seems to be way off the others. The most recent polls have Obama up in Wisconsin (Public Policy Polling did their final poll and had him up 13, we'll see how the turnout is tomorrow) and Clinton and Obama virtually tied in Texas (CNN poll).

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

LAWL! That statement, and you, are ridonkulous!

Techs, what will you do when Billary is gone? Who will you support?

 

[compuwiz1]

Originally posted by: palehorse74

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

LAWL! That statement, and you, are ridonkulous!

Techs, what will you do when Billary is gone? Who will you support?

Huckabyebye.

And, why are Paul and Gravel still in the race at all? Paul has a total of 16 delegates and Gravel has 0. :shocked: They're dead, but apparently they haven't figured it out yet.

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

You seriously need to get your head out of your ass.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

I think it's fair to say that you have now taken the crown from McOwen as ATPN's king of mindless incessant trolling.

Agreed. Coronations are always exciting . . .

 

[Skitzer]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

I think it's fair to say that you have now taken the crown from McOwen as ATPN's king of mindless incessant trolling.

Of course the key word here being "mindless".

 

[CellarDoor]

Well, the new ARG poll conducted yesterday and today now has Obama up 10 points. Who knows what's up with that poll.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

There's also a new survey USA poll that shows the race in Texas tightening just like the CNN poll showed. This one has Clinton up 50-45.

 

[Thump553]

From the polls I have seen on WI they are all over the place, some have Obama up, some Clinton. All seem to have a huge (10% or so) margins of error or undecided factor. Given the truely horrendous record of polls to date, I place no reliance on them whatsoever.

Personally I disagree with the whole concept of polling and politicians skewing their positions whichever way the popular wind blows. I proudly follow my father's tradition and lie through my teeth everytime a pollster calls. (So now you know where Ron Paul's numbers are coming from).

I predict Wisconsin is going to be extremely close tonight, and if it is, then Texas and Ohio will also be very close in a few weeks. Future events, gaffes by one or the other, an Edwards endorsement, could be intervening factors.

And I don't think the concept of GOP or independent voters crossing over and intentionally voting for who they see as a crippled Dem candidate that far-fetched. I do disagree that such people would see Obama as the crippled candidate-I'd be pulling the lever for Hillary on the theory that she is unelectable in a general election if I fell into that category.

 

[Rio Rebel]

Does anyone outside the most vehement Hillary shills believe that Obama is less electable? The only way you can believe that is to ignore the 50+ percent of people who are unfavorable to her.

Yet the line we keep hearing from the Hillary camp is how Obama is less electable.

I wonder exactly what makes Obama less electable?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Arkaign

Originally posted by: techs
Hmm. With McCain assured the nomination can Republicans cross over to vote for the most easily beatable candidate, Obama?

That's pure opinion, and I have seen zero credible evidence to support it.

Polls are stupid, but the ones I've seen show McCain beating Hillary by a point or two, and Obama beating McCain by a point or two.

Pure opinion, and bad opinion at that. Obama has a better chance to beat McCain.

I think it's fair to say that you have now taken the crown from McOwen as ATPN's king of mindless incessant trolling.

At least on a temporary basis, I agree. It's really gotten crazy.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel
Does anyone outside the most vehement Hillary shills believe that Obama is less electable? The only way you can believe that is to ignore the 50+ percent of people who are unfavorable to her.

Yet the line we keep hearing from the Hillary camp is how Obama is less electable.

I wonder exactly what makes Obama less electable?

I think the concern is that so much about Obama is unknown... who knows what October Surprise might come out and crash his campaign, whereas Hillary has been in the national spotlight for almost 20 years; if the GOP had any ammo left, they'd have used it already. they've never shied away from throwing any BS they can come up with at her.

it's way too early to really speculate, but none of the match-ups (Hillary v McCain, Obama v McCain) really show a runaway election in either direction. I think it's likely to just boil down to Ohio, FL, and the Dem's attempts to turn VA blue.

but it's a non-issue... the Democratic primary is all but over.

grats black people. jk

 

[TheSlamma]

Didn't super tuesday prove these polls are meaningless?

 

[piasabird]

I think some republican may be taking great joy in seeing the clintons squirm. Hillary is just a spineless worm.

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel
Does anyone outside the most vehement Hillary shills believe that Obama is less electable? The only way you can believe that is to ignore the 50+ percent of people who are unfavorable to her.

Yet the line we keep hearing from the Hillary camp is how Obama is less electable.

I wonder exactly what makes Obama less electable?

Nothing, other than diversion and lies from people like techs.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Dunno what the American Research Group is, but they clearly got it wrong tonight.