Interesting erosion prediction for the Outer Banks (w/o considering global warming)

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IronWing

IronWing

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Jul 20, 2001
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The North Carolina Dept. of Transportation is building a new bridge on the Outer Banks to replace a stretch of highway on Pea Island that keeps getting washed out during storms. The map linked below shows the new bridge alignment. One of the project goals was to locate the bridge outside of the expected 2060 erosion zone, the portion of the island expected to become part of the Atlantic Ocean by 2060. By state law, the North Carolina DOT is prohibited from considering global warming in its analyses. Members of the public commented on the lack of consideration for global warming. The North Carolina law is so strict, NC DOT didn't even use the term in their response to comments.

The map depicts the "2060 high erosion" zone with a red line.

https://xfer.services.ncdot.gov/PDEA/Web/NC12Rodanthe/2014B_BridgeOnNewLocation.pdf

Unfortunately, NC DOT doesn't provide their methodology for determining this zone in their online archive. It would be interesting to see where that line would fall if global warming were factored in.

https://www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc-12-rodanthe/Pages/project-documents.aspx
 
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hal2kilo

hal2kilo

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IronWing said:
The North Carolina Dept. of Transportation is building a new bridge on the Outer Banks to replace a stretch of highway on Pea Island that keeps getting washed out during storms. The map linked below shows the new bridge alignment. One of the project goals was to locate the bridge outside of the expected 2060 erosion zone, the portion of the island expected to become part of the Atlantic Ocean by 2060. By state law, the North Carolina DOT is prohibited from considering global warming in its analyses. Members of the public commented on the lack of consideration for global warming. The North Carolina law is so strict, NC DOT didn't even use the term in their response to comments.

The map depicts the "2060 high erosion" zone with a red line.

https://xfer.services.ncdot.gov/PDEA/Web/NC12Rodanthe/2014B_BridgeOnNewLocation.pdf

Unfortunately, NC DOT doesn't provide their methodology for determining this zone in their online archive. It would be interesting to see where that line would fall if global warming were factored in.

https://www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc-12-rodanthe/Pages/project-documents.aspx
Click to expand...
Used to go to Nags Head every summer for a week at the Sun Fun cottages from about 8 to 17. Always thought the whole place could disappear in some big hurricane at some point. Have not been down there in almost 40 years. My brother says there's all kinds of condos that have been built down there. Bunch of fools. Tax payers gona foot the bills for peoples second houses to be saved. That whole area is definately going to go away if nothing is done about climate change. East coast in general is going to see more and more beaches washing away.
 
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D

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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IronWing said:
The North Carolina Dept. of Transportation is building a new bridge on the Outer Banks to replace a stretch of highway on Pea Island that keeps getting washed out during storms. The map linked below shows the new bridge alignment. One of the project goals was to locate the bridge outside of the expected 2060 erosion zone, the portion of the island expected to become part of the Atlantic Ocean by 2060. By state law, the North Carolina DOT is prohibited from considering global warming in its analyses. Members of the public commented on the lack of consideration for global warming. The North Carolina law is so strict, NC DOT didn't even use the term in their response to comments.

The map depicts the "2060 high erosion" zone with a red line.

https://xfer.services.ncdot.gov/PDEA/Web/NC12Rodanthe/2014B_BridgeOnNewLocation.pdf

Unfortunately, NC DOT doesn't provide their methodology for determining this zone in their online archive. It would be interesting to see where that line would fall if global warming were factored in.

https://www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc-12-rodanthe/Pages/project-documents.aspx
Click to expand...
Given that the high line there is basically halfway through the island chain, odds are very good it'll simply wash away rather than have anything to actually build on (except maybe a smaller string of smaller islands?). I saw a similar thing happen in SC at the in-laws, on Hilton Head Island. A few recent big storms/hurricanes have simply deleted a lot of ocean landscape that was upwards of 10-20' above sea level. Big waves eventually just drag it into the ocean.
 
Paratus

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
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IronWing said:
The North Carolina Dept. of Transportation is building a new bridge on the Outer Banks to replace a stretch of highway on Pea Island that keeps getting washed out during storms. The map linked below shows the new bridge alignment. One of the project goals was to locate the bridge outside of the expected 2060 erosion zone, the portion of the island expected to become part of the Atlantic Ocean by 2060. By state law, the North Carolina DOT is prohibited from considering global warming in its analyses. Members of the public commented on the lack of consideration for global warming. The North Carolina law is so strict, NC DOT didn't even use the term in their response to comments.

The map depicts the "2060 high erosion" zone with a red line.

https://xfer.services.ncdot.gov/PDEA/Web/NC12Rodanthe/2014B_BridgeOnNewLocation.pdf

Unfortunately, NC DOT doesn't provide their methodology for determining this zone in their online archive. It would be interesting to see where that line would fall if global warming were factored in.

https://www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc-12-rodanthe/Pages/project-documents.aspx
Click to expand...
Don’t worry. As long as you ignore reality it can never hurt you. Right?
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,162
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136
[DHT]Osiris said:
Given that the high line there is basically halfway through the island chain, odds are very good it'll simply wash away rather than have anything to actually build on (except maybe a smaller string of smaller islands?). I saw a similar thing happen in SC at the in-laws, on Hilton Head Island. A few recent big storms/hurricanes have simply deleted a lot of ocean landscape that was upwards of 10-20' above sea level. Big waves eventually just drag it into the ocean.
Click to expand...
The barrier islands will "advance to the rear", moving west. There will be islands, just not where they are now. For folks with property on the ocean side, sucks to be them.
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,162
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hal2kilo said:
Used to go to Nags Head every summer for a week at the Sun Fun cottages from about 8 to 17. Always thought the whole place could disappear in some big hurricane at some point. Have not been down there in almost 40 years. My brother says there's all kinds of condos that have been built down there. Bunch of fools. Tax payers gona foot the bills for peoples second houses to be saved. That whole area is definately going to go away if nothing is done about climate change. East coast in general is going to see more and more beaches washing away.
Click to expand...
My wife grew up vacationing at Nags Head and we've continued the tradition. Most of the motor court type places have been replaces with giant condos. This has put a damper on the tourist economy as the single family condos sit empty most of the year whereas the motor courts were full. Some ocean front properties are now ocean back properties. Perversely, the local economy has adjusted and quite a few folks rely on rebuilding absentee owned condos after major storms as a primary source of employment.
 
D

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
16,878
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IronWing said:
The barrier islands will "advance to the rear", moving west. There will be islands, just not where they are now. For folks with property on the ocean side, sucks to be them.
Click to expand...
How will the landmass extend westward if westward is currently full of water? If the sea level goes up 5' or whatever, won't it advance from both eastward and westward directions, until tides just eat the sand?
 
D

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
16,878
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WelshBloke said:
You guys put a man on the moon for fucks sake!
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For political reasons. If we can find a political reason to do something we'll rock it out.

Get a Chinese/Russian version of Elon Musk aiming to colonize mars and the asteroid belt and you'll see the US become a space-faring country within a decade.
 
Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,193
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IronWing said:
By state law, the North Carolina DOT is prohibited from considering global warming in its analyses.
Click to expand...

Global Warming (as a term) is a bit vague with respect to this particular issue. It is Sea Level Rise they need to be concerned with, yes?

North Carolina DOT would appear to be "in on it" unless SLR is strictly prohibited from being thought of and considered.
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,162
32,529
136
Jaskalas said:
Global Warming (as a term) is a bit vague with respect to this particular issue. It is Sea Level Rise they need to be concerned with, yes?

North Carolina DOT would appear to be "in on it" unless SLR is strictly prohibited from being thought of and considered.
Click to expand...
NC DOT can only consider past and current erosion trends when modeling future shorelines but can not use sea level rise except as defined by the statute and the statute prohibited any sea level rise predictions from 2012 through 2016, the period during which the bridge was designed. Sea level rise modeling was excluded from the bridge design work.
 
hal2kilo

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
25,505
11,890
136
IronWing said:
My wife grew up vacationing at Nags Head and we've continued the tradition. Most of the motor court type places have been replaces with giant condos. This has put a damper on the tourist economy as the single family condos sit empty most of the year whereas the motor courts were full. Some ocean front properties are now ocean back properties. Perversely, the local economy has adjusted and quite a few folks rely on rebuilding absentee owned condos after major storms as a primary source of employment.
Click to expand...
Ah memories. Yea, Nags Head and that whole string of beaches were just simple middle class abodes for the most part. Hell, we couldn't afford the beach side of the highway. They were, and maybe still exist around the 11 mile mark, across what used to be the only drug store in Nags Head or for miles for that matter, so it was fun just rocking on the porch in the evening watching all the action at Millers Pharmacy.
 
P

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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IronWing said:
The North Carolina Dept. of Transportation is building a new bridge on the Outer Banks to replace a stretch of highway on Pea Island that keeps getting washed out during storms. The map linked below shows the new bridge alignment. One of the project goals was to locate the bridge outside of the expected 2060 erosion zone, the portion of the island expected to become part of the Atlantic Ocean by 2060. By state law, the North Carolina DOT is prohibited from considering global warming in its analyses. Members of the public commented on the lack of consideration for global warming. The North Carolina law is so strict, NC DOT didn't even use the term in their response to comments.

The map depicts the "2060 high erosion" zone with a red line.

https://xfer.services.ncdot.gov/PDEA/Web/NC12Rodanthe/2014B_BridgeOnNewLocation.pdf

Unfortunately, NC DOT doesn't provide their methodology for determining this zone in their online archive. It would be interesting to see where that line would fall if global warming were factored in.

https://www.ncdot.gov/projects/nc-12-rodanthe/Pages/project-documents.aspx
Click to expand...


How weird. Do they also have laws declaring that pi is exactly 3?
 
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zinfamous

zinfamous

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Jul 12, 2006
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pmv said:
How weird. Do they also have laws declaring that pi is exactly 3?
Click to expand...

probably

qkkohi9l56y21.png
 
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