Martin is a very smart guy, and his basic idea isn't wrong, or very novel. It's something we've known about for a long time. It's absolutely true that some indefinable talent makes some people much better at writing software than others. The word "smarter" is not even close to an adequate description of it. Creating software is still very much closer to painting or sculpting than to mechanical engineering or electronics. We'd like to get a handle on it. We keep trying, and occasionally when some entity that can afford it is willing to spend many millions and possibly decades to build something in a very tightly controlled manner (i.e. milspec), they succeed. But sometimes even in those situations someone uses meters and some else uses feet and your interplanetary probe digs a multi-hundred million dollar hole in the Martian dust, or your global telecomm network goes black.
The real gap isn't between talented and untalented programmers, but between what software really is, and what we would like to think it is. Sure, the average business person thinks anyone who can type and ostensibly knows a language is as good as anyone else with the same resume entries. But then those same managers assume they can build an entirely new and complex piece of virtual machinery, within a certain amount of time, and for a certain amount of money, but without actually thinking about what it is supposed to do at any level of detail.
The real gap is between how much we rely on software, and the aspirations we have for it, and the level of quality that can actually be expected from such stupid processes. That's a gap worth blogging about.