Interest Rates

dbailey

Senior member
Nov 30, 2000
338
0
76
My wife and I are getting ready to sell our townhouse in the next month or two(hopefully). We were planning on getting a single family house since the interest rates have been so low. We just had our first child recently and would like to have another baby in a larger home. Rates jumped this week from the low 4's to over 4 1/2 - 5 % and just priced us out of a bigger place. Anyone have any predictions on the rates in the next 6 months? Are the rates going to keep going upor will they dip back down? How do you know?...We would consider selling our TH and then rent an apartment month to month until the rates go back down if necessary.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Huh? Rates go back down? Something even in the 5's is a historically low rate. I would jump on it before they got to 8%.

On a side note, I have about 20 files cleared for docs that are stuck because of the recent rate climb :(
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
The Fed just made a huge purchase with QE2 yet rates went up, and Congress just broke another budget deficit record and the tax compromise bill extends unemployment benefits and reduces payroll tax. I think rates are headed higher.

PS lower the price on the offer to compensate for rise in rates...that's how bonds work.
 

bignateyk

Lifer
Apr 22, 2002
11,288
7
0
Sounds like you might have been stretching it a little tight to begin with if a half a percentage point in interest rate increase prices you out of buying a place. Even on a 300K loan, a full percentage point is less than $200/month difference.

5% is still really good...
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
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Rates were extra low due to the uncertainity of what the government was going to the economy.

Now that there "seems" to be an agreement which will start pumping $$ into the economy and not pull $$ from the public; the rate setters feel confident in uping the numbers. the ecoonomy is felt that it will not doubledip.
 

dbailey

Senior member
Nov 30, 2000
338
0
76
Sounds like you might have been stretching it a little tight to begin with if a half a percentage point in interest rate increase prices you out of buying a place. Even on a 300K loan, a full percentage point is less than $200/month difference.

5% is still really good...

We are paying way too much for the place we are in( about 3k/month in Fairfax VA).. our rate is like 6.5% and we didn't put much down. We will have to dip into savings to pay off the 20k or so we are upside down and wanted to get into a new place for the same or about the same monthly payment. So doing the math if we were able to get a loan at 4.25% we could get a much bigger place, but if the rates are 5% that knocks off about 75k off of the loan amount if we were to keep our payments the same. Thanks for the input though.. I'll keep my fingers crossed they don't go too high.
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
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I'm not a financial analyst, but IMHO it is not the time to buy if your margin is so thin that you can't afford a 0.5~1% increase. Where will you turn to if interest rate jump to 6~7%?
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,769
19
81
I'm not a financial analyst, but IMHO it is not the time to buy if your margin is so thin that you can't afford a 0.5~1% increase. Where will you turn to if interest rate jump to 6~7%?

A fixed rate loan doesn't change in rate. 1% is considered quite a bit on a mortgage.

To the main topic...rates have been at their lowest for a long time now...they are creeping up. There is no reason to think that they will not continue to do so back into at least the 6 and 7% range.

It's doubtful they will ever head south in the short term again.
 

Vette73

Lifer
Jul 5, 2000
21,503
9
0
Huh? Rates go back down? Something even in the 5's is a historically low rate. I would jump on it before they got to 8%.

On a side note, I have about 20 files cleared for docs that are stuck because of the recent rate climb :(


Yep person doing ours promised 3.75 but waited to long to lock so now we are waiting as well. :mad:
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
Yep person doing ours promised 3.75 but waited to long to lock so now we are waiting as well. :mad:

Yep I have a $1.6M loan on my desk that the loan officer could have locked at 4.875 3 weeks ago, and now the par rate is 5.625 and we are stuck.

F*cked up my volume bonus for December. :(
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
A fixed rate loan doesn't change in rate. 1% is considered quite a bit on a mortgage.

To the main topic...rates have been at their lowest for a long time now...they are creeping up. There is no reason to think that they will not continue to do so back into at least the 6 and 7% range.

It's doubtful they will ever head south in the short term again.
I understand fixed term rate, but what you are going to do when the contract is up in 3~5 years?

IMHO, the best offence strategy is a good defense.
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
Yep I have a $1.6M loan on my desk that the loan officer could have locked at 4.875 3 weeks ago, and now the par rate is 5.625 and we are stuck.

F*cked up my volume bonus for December. :(
The bank promised me that they will hold the rate at 3.65% 5 years fixed term for me for 90 days and that was 3 weeks ago ($350K construction loan). However, I'm intended to keep my money in the stock market till everything is kosher before I built (was going to break ground this coming up Feb.)
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
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Fixed rate is for the life of the loan.10,15,20,30 years.

A variable rate will expire in 3-5 years
 

rcpratt

Lifer
Jul 2, 2009
10,433
110
116
They could dip SLIGHTLY in the short-term, but in the long-term, this is still pretty much the best time ever to buy.

I wouldn't hesitate, if you can afford it.
 

IndyColtsFan

Lifer
Sep 22, 2007
33,655
688
126
I understand fixed term rate, but what you are going to do when the contract is up in 3~5 years?

IMHO, the best offence strategy is a good defense.

You're not understanding what we're saying. A fixed-term loan locks the interest rate forever. So, if you get a 30-year loan at 5&#37; tomorrow, your rate will still be 5% in the year 2038.

Mortgages that are "fixed" for 3 or 5 years and then the rate changes to the market rate are NOT fixed rate loans.

EDIT: Common Courtesy answered this above as well.
 

IndyColtsFan

Lifer
Sep 22, 2007
33,655
688
126
The bank promised me that they will hold the rate at 3.65% 5 years fixed term for me for 90 days and that was 3 weeks ago ($350K construction loan). However, I'm intended to keep my money in the stock market till everything is kosher before I built (was going to break ground this coming up Feb.)

That isn't a fixed rate loan. I know some here might disagree with me, but NEVER get a variable rate loan. The only time I'd remotely consider a variable rate loan with a 5-year fixed rate is if I knew I'd sell the house in under 5 years and the locked rate was absurdly low.
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
Fixed rate is for the life of the loan.10,15,20,30 years.

A variable rate will expire in 3-5 years
I haven't seen 15~30 years fixed term as yet, but things could be different in the US.

Fixed Rate Mortgages -- Coast Capital Saving.

It was for 5-Year Rewriteable at 3.65%.

3-Years convertible was high than 3.65% when I applied for my the loan.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,589
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Fixed rate is for the life of the loan.10,15,20,30 years.

A variable rate will expire in 3-5 years
I haven't seen 15~30 years fixed term as yet, but things could be different in the US.

Fixed Rate Mortgages -- Coast Capital Saving.

It was for 5-Year Rewriteable at 3.65&#37;.

3-Years convertible was high than 3.65% when I applied for my the loan.

All my numbers were based on US rates/loan proceedings.
The Adjustible Rates (ARMS) are down about 1-> 1.5% lower than the fixed rates. Initially; when they rise during inflation, watch out
WellsFargo Rates

It was the ARMS that tripped the housign crisis initially when they would rise 2-3% and the original buyer could not cover the increase. As housing prices dropped, the buyer was unable to sell the house because of being upside down.
 
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iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
I haven't seen 15~30 years fixed term as yet, but things could be different in the US.

Fixed Rate Mortgages -- Coast Capital Saving.

It was for 5-Year Rewriteable at 3.65&#37;.

3-Years convertible was high than 3.65% when I applied for my the loan.

All my numbers were based on US rates/loan proceedings.
The Adjustible Rates (ARMS) are down about 1-> 1.5% lower than the fixed rates. Initially; when they rise during inflation, watch out

It was the ARMS that tripped the housign crisis initially when they would rise 2-3% and the original buyer could not cover the increase. As housing prices dropped, the buyer was unable to sell the house because of being upside down.
Thanks, I don't think we have fixed rate terms that is longer than 5 years here in Canada. But, I will look into it.
 
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OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
37
91
All my numbers were based on US rates/loan proceedings.
The Adjustible Rates (ARMS) are down about 1-> 1.5&#37; lower than the fixed rates. Initially; when they rise during inflation, watch out
WellsFargo Rates

It was the ARMS that tripped the housign crisis initially when they would rise 2-3% and the original buyer could not cover the increase. As housing prices dropped, the buyer was unable to sell the house because of being upside down.

ARMs get all of the attention, but that wasn't the real problem. Fannie and Freddie will still buy ARMs to this day.

The problem was allowing anyone with a 580 FICO to do a 100% LTV loan without verifying income.

Now when I underwrite a ARM with a 5 year or less fixed period, the borrower has to qualify at the note rate + 2%.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
If a half percentage point is the difference between affording or not, you couldn't afford it in the first place. Glad I locked my super jumbo at 5 a few weeks ago.
 

rcpratt

Lifer
Jul 2, 2009
10,433
110
116
If a half percentage point is the difference between affording or not, you couldn't afford it in the first place. Glad I locked my super jumbo at 5 a few weeks ago.
Unless a half percentage point is the difference between being a half percentage point away from where you can afford it. :hmm:
 
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