Intel roadmap promises 10nm by 2018

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Cogman

Lifer
Sep 19, 2000
10,286
147
106
They have 8 years while Intel milks silicon and where money and opportunity collide anything can happen. Too many conservative stuffed shirts running companies. Apple brought just a tiny bit of innovation and there stock is through the roof.

Apples success is far less related to innovation and far more related to great marketing. Apple is about as "conservative stuffed shirt" company as they get. Their biggest "innovations" have been to teach the computer world that interface matters.
 

wuliheron

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,536
0
0
Sorry, but the bolded is false. Multicore and parallel processing has been around for a LONG time. Longer than most might expect. Most of the research into the subject happened in the 1960's! ( see, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dining_philosophers_problem )

Super computer programmers have been dealing with this stuff for a LONG time, it is only recently that consumer applications have started to seriously use it. To say it is its infancy because a new tool comes out is laughable.

Yeah, and the ancient Egyptians had electroplating, but it didn't mean it was a mature science. The basic mathematics behind them is largely a mystery to this day.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
Apples success is far less related to innovation and far more related to great marketing. Apple is about as "conservative stuffed shirt" company as they get. Their biggest "innovations" have been to teach the computer world that interface matters.

Personally, I hate Macs and up to a few years ago wanted nothing at all to do with Apple. Now I have an iphone, ipod, use itunes extensively, etc etc etc. I think that they're extremely innovative. Many companies build/develop new types of hardware, but apple does a great job taking existing hardware and using it to build something that people actually want to buy (other than macs, which still suck). Particularly with the iphone, it really is just extremely easy to use. We added my mom to my plan last year, she has a 3gs and can actually use it!
 

Cogman

Lifer
Sep 19, 2000
10,286
147
106
Personally, I hate Macs and up to a few years ago wanted nothing at all to do with Apple. Now I have an iphone, ipod, use itunes extensively, etc etc etc. I think that they're extremely innovative. Many companies build/develop new types of hardware, but apple does a great job taking existing hardware and using it to build something that people actually want to buy (other than macs, which still suck). Particularly with the iphone, it really is just extremely easy to use. We added my mom to my plan last year, she has a 3gs and can actually use it!

Like I said, Apple discovered the importance of a good interface and good marketing. That is the only place where they are truly innovative (Ok, battery tech might be another one in apples ball court). People's WANT to use both stems from those to things.

And don't get me wrong, it is easy to get the interface all wrong. But a flashy interface really isn't what I would call a "Huge innovation".

I will say this, love it or hate it, Itunes was initially a huge innovation just because it gave people an easy way to get music legally and quickly. Beyond that, I wouldn't count the Iphone or Ipad as huge innovations. Those are "existing tech with pretty eye candy".

It is the difference between Tesla and Edison. Tesla was a genius from which most of our modern knowledge of electronics stem. Edison was a showman that managed his money well. Guess which one most people know about? Again, that isn't to say that we didn't get some good stuff from Edison, just that he didn't really invent a whole lot. Tesla died innovating. He spent all his money on innovation.

Apple will be known as the innovators not because they are innovators, but because they are professional stuff shirt businessmen.
 

Cogman

Lifer
Sep 19, 2000
10,286
147
106
Yeah, and the ancient Egyptians had electroplating, but it didn't mean it was a mature science. The basic mathematics behind them is largely a mystery to this day.

The basic mathmatics behind parallel processing is NOT a mystery and is well known.

Many people have been effectively using parallel processing for several decades now. There is no mystery behind it. Now, we are just working on ways to make it more palatable for everyone. We understand how it works and the math behind it. There is no mystery to be solved for it. There is no "why does this work?".

What would make it a mature science for you?
 

wuliheron

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,536
0
0
The basic mathmatics behind parallel processing is NOT a mystery and is well known.

Many people have been effectively using parallel processing for several decades now. There is no mystery behind it. Now, we are just working on ways to make it more palatable for everyone. We understand how it works and the math behind it. There is no mystery to be solved for it. There is no "why does this work?".

What would make it a mature science for you?


We have a mathematical theory for playing poker known as probability theory which is extraordinarily effective and leaves little mystery. Some might argue the logical foundations of the mathematical theory and whatnot, but it is a complete mathematical theory that is extraordinarily accurate and useful for playing any card game.

There is no equivalent mathematical theory for parallel computing. We have basic theories in information and whatnot, but there is no single universally recognized theory useful for all types of parallel processing. No equivalent of probability theory for playing cards. If you believe there is such theory, then by all means at least provide us with the name.
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
91
The basic mathmatics behind parallel processing is NOT a mystery and is well known.

Many people have been effectively using parallel processing for several decades now. There is no mystery behind it. Now, we are just working on ways to make it more palatable for everyone. We understand how it works and the math behind it. There is no mystery to be solved for it. There is no "why does this work?".

What would make it a mature science for you?

I agree, this is a bit surreal for me, the field of computer science has progressed for many many many decades.

Moore's Law came about from Gordon Moore's paper in 1965. Amdahl's Law came about from Gene Amdahl's paper in 1967.

We've had Amdahl's law for a mere 2yrs less than we've had Moore's law. It's absurd to paint the concepts of computer parallelism and heterogeneous computing as anything new under the sun.

It might be new to the newcomers, however for the people who've been in the industry for a while this is just the natural pace of change, same as it has ever been.

Even in the x86 microcosm, heterogeneous computing has undeniably been here since the days of x87 co-processors. The 8087 was introduced 32 yrs ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_8087

The 8087, the first of the x87 family, was built to be paired with the Intel 8088 or 8086 microprocessors. Its purpose was to speed up computations on demanding applications involving floating-point arithmetic. The performance enhancements were from approximately 20% to over 500% depending on the specific application. The 8087 could perform about 50,000 FLOPS.
 

Cogman

Lifer
Sep 19, 2000
10,286
147
106
We have a mathematical theory for playing poker known as probability theory which is extraordinarily effective and leaves little mystery. Some might argue the logical foundations of the mathematical theory and whatnot, but it is a complete mathematical theory that is extraordinarily accurate and useful for playing any card game.

There is no equivalent mathematical theory for parallel computing. We have basic theories in information and whatnot, but there is no single universally recognized theory useful for all types of parallel processing. No equivalent of probability theory for playing cards. If you believe there is such theory, then by all means at least provide us with the name.
Your right, there is no one single theory for parallel computing... There are SEVERAL. There is a whole field dedicated to the subject that is several decades old. It is crazy to suggest that just because one we don't have one single equation that describes a whole field of study, that we don't understand that field. That is what you arguing, and buy that standard we know nothing about physics, math, and really every science out there. In other words, you don't believe there is such a thing as science because we don't have a single math equation that explains a whole field of science.

Again, what does this field need to prove to you that it is proven? Computer science is one area that has WAY more math backing it than any other branch of science. We have probability theories that describe what will happen and we have exact theories that will describe exactly what is going on.

The very act of writing a computer program is to describe exactly what is going to happen in a given situation. You act as if we just throw stuff at the computer and hope everything turns out well. We don't.

Computer science is based off of math and as an extension parallel programming. In is the most solidly math based study out there. To make the assertion that we have no math theorems to back it is crazy. The entire field is a collection of math theorem after math theorem to describe exactly what is going on. Computer Science is the only science out there that depends ENTIRELY on math in order to work.

Do you consider Physics, Computer science in general, math, geometry, Biology, Chemistry or Horticulture to be a known science? Give me a field you consider to have a stronger scientific and math backing than parallel computing.
 

wuliheron

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,536
0
0
Your right, there is no one single theory for parallel computing... There are SEVERAL. There is a whole field dedicated to the subject that is several decades old. It is crazy to suggest that just because one we don't have one single equation that describes a whole field of study, that we don't understand that field. That is what you arguing, and buy that standard we know nothing about physics, math, and really every science out there. In other words, you don't believe there is such a thing as science because we don't have a single math equation that explains a whole field of science.

Bullshit. I've only argued that it isn't a mature science, not that it is merely so much voodoo. When you have 20 different theories and 400 different ways of approaching the same subject its absurd to claim it is a mature science. Right now heterogeneous computing is right up there with psychology in that respect. Both can definitely be called sciences, but only a fool would call them mature sciences just because they've been around awhile and continue to produce useful results.

Again, what does this field need to prove to you that it is proven? Computer science is one area that has WAY more math backing it than any other branch of science. We have probability theories that describe what will happen and we have exact theories that will describe exactly what is going on.

We can also use psychology to describe countless things too and make accurate predictions, but that does not make it a mature science. If you can't understand the difference, then there is no point in my elaborating further.

The very act of writing a computer program is to describe exactly what is going to happen in a given situation. You act as if we just throw stuff at the computer and hope everything turns out well. We don't.

Computer science is based off of math and as an extension parallel programming. In is the most solidly math based study out there. To make the assertion that we have no math theorems to back it is crazy. The entire field is a collection of math theorem after math theorem to describe exactly what is going on. Computer Science is the only science out there that depends ENTIRELY on math in order to work.

Do you consider Physics, Computer science in general, math, geometry, Biology, Chemistry or Horticulture to be a known science? Give me a field you consider to have a stronger scientific and math backing than parallel computing.

You're confusing what are called the "exact" sciences with "mature" sciences. Wine tasting is a mature science, but not an exact science. Chaos theory is an exact science, but not a mature science. One is not synonymous with the other.

CPU processor architecture I consider to be a pretty mature science at this point. They have a very solid theoretical foundation and we've even made significant strides in multicore processor architecture. Heterogeneous architecture is another matter altogether.

Sure, we've had some experience with parallel processing and heterogeneous architecture, but by some estimates single chip heterogeneous computing will eventually require 4 distinct types of cores to maximize their speed and power. The problem is we just don't know what the best arrangement might be and have no real theory to turn to for answers. For that matter, it might be possible to automate multicore threading in hardware right on the chip, but NOBODY KNOWS.

These are both basic questions that we simply don't have the theory or experience to answer because the science is immature. Not because the science is not mathematical or rigorous or empirical or cutting edge. Simply because it is immature.
 
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