Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

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Tigerick

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As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.



Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

ModelCode-NameDateTDPNodeTilesMain TileCPULP E-CoreLLCGPUXe-cores
Core Ultra 100UMeteor LakeQ4 202315 - 57 WIntel 4 + N5 + N64tCPU2P + 8E212 MBIntel Graphics4
?Lunar LakeQ4 202417 - 30 WN3B + N62CPU + GPU & IMC4P + 4E08 MBArc8
?Panther LakeQ1 2026 ??Intel 18A + N3E3CPU + MC4P + 8E4?Arc12



Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Meteor LakeArrow Lake (20A)Arrow Lake (N3B)Lunar LakePanther Lake
PlatformMobile H/U OnlyDesktop OnlyDesktop & Mobile H&HXMobile U OnlyMobile H
Process NodeIntel 4Intel 20ATSMC N3BTSMC N3BIntel 18A
DateQ4 2023Q1 2025 ?Desktop-Q4-2024
H&HX-Q1-2025
Q4 2024Q1 2026 ?
Full Die6P + 8P6P + 8E ?8P + 16E4P + 4E4P + 8E
LLC24 MB24 MB ?36 MB ?12 MB?
tCPU66.48
tGPU44.45
SoC96.77
IOE44.45
Total252.15

LNL-MX.png

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

INTEL-CORE-100-ULTRA-METEOR-LAKE-OFFCIAL-SLIDE-2.jpg

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)



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Geddagod

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They kept working on Sapphire Rapids based HEDT knowing very well its a mediocre product at best.
SPR is prob the least competitive product Intel launched recently for CPUs, since server is so bad at hitting timelines. The thing is though, Intel redefines products all the time to try to remain competitive. The SPR they 'kept on working on' got redefined a ton, just like GNR did when it moved from 2023 to 2024.
And also, you prob know you said something fanatic when Markfw likes your comment lol ;)
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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Intel certainly hasn't released QS samples yet, so that absolutely is an ES, maybe not even ES2. Chill with the hysterics.


Non QS ES usually get a generic 0000 CPU ID. Performance numbers from leaks like this are meaningless anways, they could have disabled Turbo and so on.
 

eek2121

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Aug 2, 2005
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ES CPUs dont have Release names. That Ultra 7 is going to be DOA thanks to Zen4 Low power APUs
Whatever you are smoking, remind me to avoid it.

Also, for non-QS and even QS CPUs, Intel has been known to lock those parts to base clocks or below to prevent the competition from knowing performance characteristics prior to release. Speed binning also happens much later in the development process.
 

JoeRambo

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Jun 13, 2013
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Intel 4 is in excellent shape according to both Intel and certain industry insiders. Some have claimed yields are even better than the Intel 7 variants.

Isn't that obvious and logical? Intel painted themselves into the corner with that whole SAQP and cobalt disaster and even after all relaxation over the years it is probably very hard to yield.

Intel 4 is using EUV equipment for those critical layers instead of SAQP, does not take a rocket scientist to understand that yields will be excellent ( since we already know TSMC can yield real good on EUV processes with similar transistor metrics ).

The real question are:

1) How many EUV machines Intel has for what product mix and volume.
2) What compromises with process still have to be made due to (1) and their impact on yield and performance
3) The stuff beyond Intel 4, is where things get interesting. They are currently in 'we are undoing what accounting/marketing idiots inflicted on us by not ordering EUV machines and by betting the farm on SAQP" mode, let's see if they can move on to "back to competing for process leadership" mode.
 
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A///

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They kept working on Sapphire Rapids based HEDT knowing very well its a mediocre product at best.
not if you need the memory channels and io capabilities. tr pro is useless for most people who need this and can give up some performance and take the power up their kiester.
 

eek2121

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Isn't that obvious and logical? Intel painted themselves into the corner with that whole SAQP and cobalt disaster and even after all relaxation over the years it is probably very hard to yield.

Intel 4 is using EUV equipment for those critical layers instead of SAQP, does not take a rocket scientist to understand that yields will be excellent ( since we already know TSMC can yield real good on EUV processes with similar transistor metrics ).

The real question are:

1) How many EUV machines Intel has for what product mix and volume.
2) What compromises with process still have to be made due to (1) and their impact on yield and performance
3) The stuff beyond Intel 4, is where things get interesting. They are currently in 'we are undoing what accounting/marketing idiots inflicted on us by not ordering EUV machines and by betting the farm on SAQP" mode, let's see if they can move on to "back to competing for process leadership" mode.
Funny because I was going to add the part about EUV.

Intel has mentioned it has ample EUV capacity, they even provided specific numbers at one point, though some here don’t believe them. They have enough that they can use it for Intel 18a if needed. I suspect most of it is reserved for IFS. I also suspect Intel is in negotiations with a few large (and potentially surprising) potential customers, hence why we aren’t seeing much about Intel 4/3. Said customers would need to see that capacity is available before moving forward on any deal.

There are a lot of folks here that are pessimistic about Intel and rightfully so. Intel made severe missteps in the past and due to the nature of the business it takes years to recover. Because of this, it can seem like Intel is not recovering when they actually (supposedly) are.

To put things into perspective AMD began work on Zen 1 in 2012-2013 and the part did not launch until 2017. That is for a single architecture. I think 2025 Intel will look very different from 2023 Intel.

Time will tell, of course.

I eagerly await meteor lake because it should give us a sneak peak of upcoming perf/watt improvements, even if the chip itself isn’t any faster than Raptor Lake.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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I eagerly await meteor lake because it should give us a sneak peak of upcoming perf/watt improvements, even if the chip itself isn’t any faster than Raptor Lake.
It's an exciting CPU if:

1) tGPU has great performance and gets within 25% of RDNA3 iGPU's perf

2) RWC and CM cores bring at least 10% performance uplift at the same clockspeed

3) These cores consume 15% less power at iso frequency

4) Memory latency is not worse than Raptor Lake or RPL-R

5) The cache on the I/O die rivals the performance benefit of V-cache
 

dullard

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May 21, 2001
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ES CPUs dont have Release names. That Ultra 7 is going to be DOA thanks to Zen4 Low power APUs
If that Meteor Lake chip was near final release, then it would be DOA just due to the 4 year old 8th generation Whiskey lake i7-8665U that ties it in the comparison above.

Not only are frequencies not listed, but even more importantly power is not listed. Making any conclusion without that data is useless. Going with the extremes: 534.5 PugentBench Lightroom Classic points at 125 W is far, far, far different than 534.5 PugentBench Lightroom Classic points at 5 W. And we don't know where on the spectrum that benchmark was run.
 

moinmoin

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Jun 1, 2017
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Intel has mentioned it has ample EUV capacity, they even provided specific numbers at one point, though some here don’t believe them. They have enough that they can use it for Intel 18a if needed. I suspect most of it is reserved for IFS. I also suspect Intel is in negotiations with a few large (and potentially surprising) potential customers, hence why we aren’t seeing much about Intel 4/3. Said customers would need to see that capacity is available before moving forward on any deal.

There are a lot of folks here that are pessimistic about Intel and rightfully so. Intel made severe missteps in the past and due to the nature of the business it takes years to recover. Because of this, it can seem like Intel is not recovering when they actually (supposedly) are.

To put things into perspective AMD began work on Zen 1 in 2012-2013 and the part did not launch until 2017. That is for a single architecture. I think 2025 Intel will look very different from 2023 Intel.

Time will tell, of course.
I think there is no doubt Intel will look very different in a couple of years. The big question is how Intel will look then. The recent slimming effort with layoffs in many areas seemingly except IFS may well mean IFS is all the focus now while chip designs are on the backburner. But that may be a topic more suitable to the "Leading Edge Foundry Node advances" thread than this one.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Intel is in the unenviable position of not only in dire need of catching up to AMD/TSMC but also leapfrogging them in both process and CPU performance/watt as well as the top performance crown in desktop/mobile/server markets. If they manage to do all that, Pat Gelsinger will have a fab named after him and maybe a whole campus too.
 

dullard

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Intel is in the unenviable position of not only in dire need of catching up to AMD/TSMC but also leapfrogging them in both process and CPU performance/watt as well as the top performance crown in desktop/mobile/server markets. If they manage to do all that, Pat Gelsinger will have a fab named after him and maybe a whole campus too.
That goal all comes down to if Intel gets High-NA EUV up and running first. 2025 has long been their stated goal to be back in the lead with "Unquestioned Leadership".

With Intel paying dearly to get High-NA first while TSMC is drastically cutting back on its contracted EUV purchases (meaning they just got on ASML's bad side), Intel actually has a chance. Sure, Intel can screw it up, but there is a distinct opportunity to meet their goal.
 

BorisTheBlade82

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May 1, 2020
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It's an exciting CPU if:

1) tGPU has great performance and gets within 25% of RDNA3 iGPU's perf

2) RWC and CM cores bring at least 10% performance uplift at the same clockspeed

3) These cores consume 15% less power at iso frequency

4) Memory latency is not worse than Raptor Lake or RPL-R

5) The cache on the I/O die rivals the performance benefit of V-cache
If you mean all at once: Not gonna happen.
 

Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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That goal all comes down to if Intel gets High-NA EUV up and running first. 2025 has long been their stated goal to be back in the lead with "Unquestioned Leadership".

With Intel paying dearly to get High-NA first while TSMC is drastically cutting back on its contracted EUV purchases (meaning they just got on ASML's bad side), Intel actually has a chance. Sure, Intel can screw it up, but there is a distinct opportunity to meet their goal.

If memory serves me correctly, Intel is delaying their transition to high-NA EUV and said they could make their Angstrom class processes without it. I’ll see if I can dig up a source.

Edit: link discussing it here https://www.anandtech.com/show/17415/asmls-highna-update-coming-to-fabs-in-2024-2025

It’s not official but given ASML’s timeline for delivering the machines and Intel’s timeline for their 20a/18a processes, it doesn’t seem possible for them to be using high-NA EUV machines until whatever follows 18a. The other option is that 20a/18a come significantly later than Intel has promised.
 
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H433x0n

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Mar 15, 2023
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Intel is in the unenviable position of not only in dire need of catching up to AMD/TSMC but also leapfrogging them in both process and CPU performance/watt as well as the top performance crown in desktop/mobile/server markets. If they manage to do all that, Pat Gelsinger will have a fab named after him and maybe a whole campus too.
It really only comes down to catching up / surpassing TSMC. If they reach parity or surpass TSMC then the CPU performance/watt problem solves itself.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
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If memory serves me correctly, Intel is delaying their transition to high-NA EUV and said they could make their Angstrom class processes without it. I’ll see if I can dig up a source.

Edit: link discussing it here https://www.anandtech.com/show/17415/asmls-highna-update-coming-to-fabs-in-2024-2025

It’s not official but given ASML’s timeline for delivering the machines and Intel’s timeline for their 20a/18a processes, it doesn’t seem possible for them to be using high-NA EUV machines until whatever follows 18a. The other option is that 20a/18a come significantly later than Intel has promised.
I perfer Anandtech's other article on the topic:

It does look like Intel is going to start with 18A before High-NA instruments are up and running. Note: this chart can be misread, the colored squares are when Intel has them up and running--NOT when customers can buy the chips.
IntelRoadmap_H1_2022b.png


But, Intel may switch 18A over to high-NA EUV later, or as you said High-NA EUV will be in 2025 but with the next node.
 

SiliconFly

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Mar 10, 2023
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It's an exciting CPU if:

1) tGPU has great performance and gets within 25% of RDNA3 iGPU's perf

2) RWC and CM cores bring at least 10% performance uplift at the same clockspeed

3) These cores consume 15% less power at iso frequency

4) Memory latency is not worse than Raptor Lake or RPL-R

5) The cache on the I/O die rivals the performance benefit of V-cache
1) Even though a high performing tGPU will make the MTL CPU exciting, a good tGPU or iGPU is never a good metric for CPU sales. The general public doesn't care much about integrated GPU performance. Only gamers.

2) Not much MTL IPC increase is expected. Thats why high end parts are RPL refresh. Looks like they're trying to win with ppw this generation.

(3) The power efficiency increase for productivity workloads is expected to be around 30% or more.

(4) MTL memory latency is definitely not inferior to RPL.

(5) ADM cache on MTL is not meant for MTL tCPU and will never compete directly with AMD 3D-Vcache which is L3. It's tied directly to MTL's tGPU. MTL's tGPU might even compete directly with RTX 3050 due to ADM cache performance boost.
 
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SiliconFly

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Mar 10, 2023
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It really only comes down to catching up / surpassing TSMC. If they reach parity or surpass TSMC then the CPU performance/watt problem solves itself.
They're not only reaching parity but surpassing TSMC N3 in Q3 2024 with Intel 20A. Even though it sounds too good to be true, Intel 20A test chips have already been taped out and Intel Arrow Lake on 20A is well on track too with higher PPA than TSMC N3. It's gonna be a killer product with industry leading tech like gaafets & power vias. Something even TSMC won't have till 2026!!!!!! And thats no small feat!

Intel takes the lead next year both in CPUs & process nodes. Sadly, AMD & TSMC are taking the back seat starting Q3 2024.

A side note: Both Arrow Lake & Zen 5 are coming out in Q3 2024. And Zen 5 desktop & laptop cpus are based on the outdated tsmc 4nm node & Intel Arrow Lake cpus are based on the new cutting-edge Intel 2nm node. Arrow Lake is more than a node ahead of Zen 5! It's gonna be a bloodbath! Zen 5 will look like Rocket Lake when compared to Arrow Lake!
 
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ondma

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Mar 18, 2018
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They're not only reaching parity but surpassing TSMC N3 in Q3 2024 with Intel 20A. Even though it sounds too good to be true, Intel 20A test chips have already taped out and Intel Arrow Lake on 20A is well on track too with higher PPA than TSMC N3. It's gonna be a killer product with industry leading tech like gaafets & power vias. Something even TSMC won't have till 2026!!!!!! And thats no small feat!

Intel takes the lead next year. Sadly, AMD & TSMC are taking the back seat starting Q3 2024.
Hope you are right, but I wish I could share your optimism. Only time will tell, but that is a very ambitious cadence, not something Intel has pulled off successfully recently. I am troubled by the RL refresh too. It is too reminiscent of Skylake and all its refreshes and makes me wonder is they are on track.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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(5) ADM cache on MTL is not meant for MTL tCPU and will never compete directly with AMD 3D-Vcache which is L3. It's tied directly to MTL's tGPU. MTL's tGPU might even compete directly with RTX 3050 due to ADM cache performance boost.
I wonder if some clever game engine developer (Epic?, makers of UE5) could masquerade useful and much needed data into the ADM cache as offscreen textures. Would be a lot of work and only useful if it gives a big boost and they expect the ADM to become a permanent fixture of future Intel mobile CPUs.