Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

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Tigerick

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As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.



Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

ModelCode-NameDateTDPNodeTilesMain TileCPULP E-CoreLLCGPUXe-cores
Core Ultra 100UMeteor LakeQ4 202315 - 57 WIntel 4 + N5 + N64tCPU2P + 8E212 MBIntel Graphics4
?Lunar LakeQ4 202417 - 30 WN3B + N62CPU + GPU & IMC4P + 4E08 MBArc8
?Panther LakeQ1 2026 ??Intel 18A + N3E3CPU + MC4P + 8E4?Arc12



Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Meteor LakeArrow Lake (20A)Arrow Lake (N3B)Lunar LakePanther Lake
PlatformMobile H/U OnlyDesktop OnlyDesktop & Mobile H&HXMobile U OnlyMobile H
Process NodeIntel 4Intel 20ATSMC N3BTSMC N3BIntel 18A
DateQ4 2023Q1 2025 ?Desktop-Q4-2024
H&HX-Q1-2025
Q4 2024Q1 2026 ?
Full Die6P + 8P6P + 8E ?8P + 16E4P + 4E4P + 8E
LLC24 MB24 MB ?36 MB ?12 MB?
tCPU66.48
tGPU44.45
SoC96.77
IOE44.45
Total252.15

LNL-MX.png

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

INTEL-CORE-100-ULTRA-METEOR-LAKE-OFFCIAL-SLIDE-2.jpg

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)



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coercitiv

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Jan 24, 2014
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Yup, that's what I figured. Which isn't a terrible idea, though if the Raptor Lake Refresh chips wind up being faster in some cases than the Meteor Lake CPUs (which will likely be the case, at least if Intel releases "desktop" Meteor Lake), it could lead to some confusion.
Based on what we know so far via leaks, MTL-S will use a different socket, the new 800 series chipsets, and will be DDR5 only. At the same time, we know RPL-S Refresh will still use 700 series chipsets.

My take is MTL will share the same timeline with RPL in mobile, but on the desktop I think it will share timeline with ARL. I don't see a place for Raptor on the new socket unless ARL gets stuck in traffic.
 

ondma

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Mar 18, 2018
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Having ultra before 3/5/7 is odd to me.

Also, more indications that Intel 4/3 is in good shape and Intel expects to increase capacity quickly….that or they expect much lower sales volume moving forward. 🤣

By adding “Ultra” to the name, it means they can roll out more SKUs as capacity allows, so I am not totally against it. It also means they can demand a premium over non-Ultra SKUs.

Things are going to get interesting. Hopefully AMD will have something to compete.
I dont really see AMD having a problem with competing. I would look at it as hoping MTL can catch up to AMD in efficiency for mobile. I dont see MTL giving Intel a lead in desktop, although it might make them more competitive in efficiency. Hopefully, ARL will be good boost for desktop, but it will at some point compete with Zen 5.
 

eek2121

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Aug 2, 2005
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I am wondering about pricing... given how expensive TSMC is. OEMs might actually like having new Raptor Refresh models if the pricing is going to be ugly.

Given that TSMC is only used for GPU and other bits, likely won’t change much. The compute tiles are on Intel 4.

The only reasons TSMC is involved at all are that the GPU IP was always TSMC and it would take work to port it over, and also Intel is currently still limited in capacity until later this year/early next year.
 

Exist50

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Aug 18, 2016
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Given that TSMC is only used for GPU and other bits, likely won’t change much.
"GPU and other bits" is the majority of the silicon, if you ignore the base die. There's >100mm2 of N6, and another good chunk of N5. That cost is going to dwarf the compute die.
 

mikk

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May 15, 2012
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MLID becoming more realistic with the claimed IPC improvements in Meteor Lake? Now he says MTL gains "up to" 10% over RPL-R with some tests in the mid single digits range. It's more realistic right?

There are some other claims. Current boost speed projections are 5.2 Ghz for 28W and 5.4 Ghz for 45W. Another claim: MTL is projected to consume 30-45% less energy than RPL-R at same performance below 45W and it launches between August-October.

As for Arrow Lake he says that both mobile and desktop will launch in Q4 2024. Mobile uses 20A whereas desktop uses TSMC N3+N3E. Recent 6+8 vs 6+8 benchmarks show ARL with 30% higher ST and 40% higher mixed average over MTL.
 

Thunder 57

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Aug 19, 2007
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MLID becoming more realistic with the claimed IPC improvements in Meteor Lake? Now he says MTL gains "up to" 10% over RPL-R with some tests in the mid single digits range. It's more realistic right?

There are some other claims. Current boost speed projections are 5.2 Ghz for 28W and 5.4 Ghz for 45W. Another claim: MTL is projected to consume 30-45% less energy than RPL-R at same performance below 45W and it launches between August-October.

As for Arrow Lake he says that both mobile and desktop will launch in Q4 2024. Mobile uses 20A whereas desktop uses TSMC N3+N3E. Recent 6+8 vs 6+8 benchmarks show ARL with 30% higher ST and 40% higher mixed average over MTL.

I don't know why people still listen to that guy but ~10% sounds fair. I certainly do not expect ARL to hit 30-40%. That is just a huge amount that we don't see anymore. Zen hit above that but largely because it was compared to a very lackluster design on an ancient node. I can't think of anything else in recent memory that got that much over its predecessor.
 

mikk

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May 15, 2012
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I don't know why people still listen to that guy but ~10% sounds fair. I certainly do not expect ARL to hit 30-40%. That is just a huge amount that we don't see anymore. Zen hit above that but largely because it was compared to a very lackluster design on an ancient node. I can't think of anything else in recent memory that got that much over its predecessor.


I believe we will see bigger gains. The lead architect last year told "in the coming years you will see Raptor Lake and Meteor Lake and then you will see bigger and bigger jumps"


Once Arrow Lake hits the market there are 3 years between Golden Cove and the next big Cove upgrade Lion Cove. It makes it easier to achieve something bigger combined with newer process nodes. Meteor Lake is more like a tick upgrade similar to Broadwell, although the platform changes are big and 30-45% less energy than RPL-R would be huge for the mobile market.
 

eek2121

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Aug 2, 2005
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"GPU and other bits" is the majority of the silicon, if you ignore the base die. There's >100mm2 of N6, and another good chunk of N5. That cost is going to dwarf the compute die.
Of course it will, but the entire package will still cost less than it costs AMD for a typical Zen 4 chip.
 

BorisTheBlade82

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May 1, 2020
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MLID becoming more realistic with the claimed IPC improvements in Meteor Lake? Now he says MTL gains "up to" 10% over RPL-R with some tests in the mid single digits range. It's more realistic right?

There are some other claims. Current boost speed projections are 5.2 Ghz for 28W and 5.4 Ghz for 45W. Another claim: MTL is projected to consume 30-45% less energy than RPL-R at same performance below 45W and it launches between August-October.

As for Arrow Lake he says that both mobile and desktop will launch in Q4 2024. Mobile uses 20A whereas desktop uses TSMC N3+N3E. Recent 6+8 vs 6+8 benchmarks show ARL with 30% higher ST and 40% higher mixed average over MTL.
Yep, regarding MTL that sounds much more down to earth.
 

Geddagod

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Dec 28, 2021
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MLID becoming more realistic with the claimed IPC improvements in Meteor Lake? Now he says MTL gains "up to" 10% over RPL-R with some tests in the mid single digits range. It's more realistic right?

There are some other claims. Current boost speed projections are 5.2 Ghz for 28W and 5.4 Ghz for 45W. Another claim: MTL is projected to consume 30-45% less energy than RPL-R at same performance below 45W and it launches between August-October.

As for Arrow Lake he says that both mobile and desktop will launch in Q4 2024. Mobile uses 20A whereas desktop uses TSMC N3+N3E. Recent 6+8 vs 6+8 benchmarks show ARL with 30% higher ST and 40% higher mixed average over MTL.
10% might still be a bit high, but then again he did say it was "up to" and avrg was single digits, so ye seems alright.
Funny though, he claims it's because RWC didn't reach expected IPC targets. Uh huh.
5.4 GHz ST max is reasonable imo. A good sign even for the node considering Intel's 'new' nodes max ST frequency went down for both 14 and 10nm.
30-45% less energy for the same performance is also a reasonable estimate I suppose. To put it into perspective, TGL vs CML was a ~25-30% gain (8c parts).
ARL 2H 2024 should be expected. Intel confirmed ARL is hitting their launch by 2024 timeline. Depending on how TSMC N3 is, they might even push for a 2Q launch to be able to compete against Zen 5 as soon as possible.
I would be a bit surprised about how they are benchmarking ARL right now. I expect ARL to just have been turned on, and maybe Intel announced that in a couple days during their Intel vision event. I also expect clocks to be pretty low right now, so unless they are clock-equalized I don't see how ARL is beating out MTL chips already by such large margins.
 

Geddagod

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Dec 28, 2021
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10% might still be a bit high, but then again he did say it was "up to" and avrg was single digits, so ye seems alright.
Funny though, he claims it's because RWC didn't reach expected IPC targets. Uh huh.
5.4 GHz ST max is reasonable imo. A good sign even for the node considering Intel's 'new' nodes max ST frequency went down for both 14 and 10nm.
30-45% less energy for the same performance is also a reasonable estimate I suppose. To put it into perspective, TGL vs CML was a ~25-30% gain (8c parts).
ARL 2H 2024 should be expected. Intel confirmed ARL is hitting their launch by 2024 timeline. Depending on how TSMC N3 is, they might even push for a 2Q launch to be able to compete against Zen 5 as soon as possible.
I would be a bit surprised about how they are benchmarking ARL right now. I expect ARL to just have been turned on, and maybe Intel announced that in a couple days during their Intel vision event. I also expect clocks to be pretty low right now, so unless they are clock-equalized I don't see how ARL is beating out MTL chips already by such large margins.
Also just want to add it would be funny if his IPC estimates for GNR is accurate because it uses LNC lol
 

Hulk

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Oct 9, 1999
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I watched that MLID video and actually I think everything he said regarding the Intel timeline and expectations are relatively reasonable. Also the timeline actually makes sense from the perspective of where each part fits into the stack. Specifically why Raptor Refresh will exist and how MTL/ARL compatibility will spur more MTL design wins that it would purely based on out of the box performance.

However I don't think ARL will show 30% IPC, more like 20%. Also RPL-R single core clocks are meaningless except for the fact that nC clocks can be inferred from them. So 6.2GHz from the refresh could mean 5.8GHc nC. 25% power reduction from Raptor to Raptor Refresh at ISO frequency would be nice if true but I'm having a hard time believing that as well.
 

H433x0n

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Mar 15, 2023
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Let's give Intel the benefit of the doubt and wet our floors with ample amount of drool.
30-40% (not 30-40% IPC) performance gains isn’t that crazy, it’s happened multiple times on a big node jump. Just look at Golden Cove from Skylake era. Zen 3 was a 30-40% performance jump in some tasks too.
 

Anhiel

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May 12, 2022
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MLID becoming more realistic with the claimed IPC improvements in Meteor Lake? Now he says MTL gains "up to" 10% over RPL-R with some tests in the mid single digits range. It's more realistic right?

There are some other claims. Current boost speed projections are 5.2 Ghz for 28W and 5.4 Ghz for 45W. Another claim: MTL is projected to consume 30-45% less energy than RPL-R at same performance below 45W and it launches between August-October.

As for Arrow Lake he says that both mobile and desktop will launch in Q4 2024. Mobile uses 20A whereas desktop uses TSMC N3+N3E. Recent 6+8 vs 6+8 benchmarks show ARL with 30% higher ST and 40% higher mixed average over MTL.

Now, these raw and undiluted data points look... perfect. Roughly 2x2% off from my own estimations posted before.
Things've only changed for MTL but not really ARL. It's a ladder system of dependencies so things do carry over.
Either way, it gives a clearer picture, yet, these perfect numbers make me wary of the last time perfect numbers became a disaster. I'm leaning toward these being more reliable judging by how so many fall into place now.
But there seems to be one contradiction here with Intel's measurement. Welp, I'll leave it at that.
Anyhow, it seems ARL will come with L4 die with backside power delivery. This is probably the biggest change in metric from before. Welp, currently this won't count practically yet other than for games or large data sets etc.
Since this only slightly differ from before my earlier conclusion remain the same.
 

eek2121

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Aug 2, 2005
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30-40% (not 30-40% IPC) performance gains isn’t that crazy, it’s happened multiple times on a big node jump. Just look at Golden Cove from Skylake era. Zen 3 was a 30-40% performance jump in some tasks too.
Not in a single generation. Did you forget Rocket/Tiger Lake? Also, Zen 3 had both an IPC and clock speed advantage.
Now, these raw and undiluted data points look... perfect. Roughly 2x2% off from my own estimations posted before.
Things've only changed for MTL but not really ARL. It's a ladder system of dependencies so things do carry over.
Either way, it gives a clearer picture, yet, these perfect numbers make me wary of the last time perfect numbers became a disaster. I'm leaning toward these being more reliable judging by how so many fall into place now.
But there seems to be one contradiction here with Intel's measurement. Welp, I'll leave it at that.
Anyhow, it seems ARL will come with L4 die with backside power delivery. This is probably the biggest change in metric from before. Welp, currently this won't count practically yet other than for games or large data sets etc.
Since this only slightly differ from before my earlier conclusion remain the same.

Meteor Lake consuming 40% less power is a given. It is on a smaller process. The question is whether Intel focuses on perf/watt moving forward. Their latest chips are incredibly inefficient. If they can pull off another Core 2 they will be able to turn things around.
 
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H433x0n

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Not in a single generation. Did you forget Rocket/Tiger Lake? Also, Zen 3 had both an IPC and clock speed advantage.
Going from Comet Lake -> Alder Lake is roughly equivalent of what we’d be getting with Raptor Lake -> Arrow Lake (with MTL being that intermediate step).

That was a sizable jump from April 2020 to November 2021.