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Intel Cannonlake, Ice Lake, Tiger Lake & Sapphire rapid thread

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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
14,223
3,320
136
Eh let's hope not. I personally choose not to think of Otellini as being only responsible for that (he had a hand in Conroe after all). Regardless Intel can't afford to get caught doing that again. The EU likes money, and Intel has a lot of it sitting around. Bad plan.

Back to Intel and 10nm.

Has Krzanich said anything about 10nm+? If 10nm is ramping up to high volume in late 2018, that only tells us about Cannonlake - a mobile product. The big news is going to be when there is volume production of 10nm+. That basically tells us when we can expect Icelake. Unless Intel does something goofy like put Icelake on 14nm+++.
 

Dayman1225

Senior member
Aug 14, 2017
972
520
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Icelake is definitely 10nm+


When? Probably Q1 Q2 2019..(For desktop - mobile may arrive sooner) Hopefully
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
7,275
895
126
For Icelake, the only product you should be expecting at this point is a 4+2 U/Y due to the 10 nm yield. No idea about the timing but it's unlikely you would see one in a laptop in 2018.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
14,223
3,320
136
And Larrabee was his pet project.
That one worked out pretty well, actually. Though not in the way he intended.

For Icelake, the only product you should be expecting at this point is a 4+2 U/Y due to the 10 nm yield. No idea about the timing but it's unlikely you would see one in a laptop in 2018.
Honestly i don't expect any Icelake in 2018, period. 2018 looks to be the year of Cannonlake for better or worse.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
6,565
1,090
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2018 is the year of Coffee Lake.
Yea, with Icelake we'll see full Desktop lines, full Notebook lines, and -SP server parts all in 2019.

Eh let's hope not. I personally choose not to think of Otellini as being only responsible for that (he had a hand in Conroe after all). Regardless Intel can't afford to get caught doing that again. The EU likes money, and Intel has a lot of it sitting around. Bad plan.
The EU nations are becoming bankrupt, even more so than the rest.

I have to revise my assessment on Brian Kraznich. The Q3 results are quite good. Despite what looks like a very messy situation, they've effectively countered Ryzen with Coffeelake.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
6,565
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Paper Launch? I wouldn't go that far.

I'm in Canada if that matters. I just searched for Coffeelake CPUs from online Canadian stores, and they are available. Not all stores have it, and none of the stores have all the models, but I can choose one from i3, i5, and i7.

Bad availability was with AMD Polaris graphics cards when mining was at peak. Boy, you are hard pressed to get a card then.

Since we are talking about the company Intel, it might be worth noting most of the pre-built systems based on Coffeelake chips are for sale and available.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,003
1,234
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That one worked out pretty well, actually. Though not in the way he intended.

Honestly i don't expect any Icelake in 2018, period. 2018 looks to be the year of Cannonlake for better or worse.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4117111-intel-intc-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

"We're on track to ship our first low-volume 10-nanometer part by the end of the year. That will be followed by the initial ramp in the first half of 2018, with both high volume and system availability in the second half of 2018."

Icelake is not coming in 2018. Thats confirmed by Intel who now say CNL will ramp to high volume in H2 2018. That speaks a lot about how bad Intel's 10nm process problems are. Intel has gone from high volume shipments in late 2017 to H2 2018 (which in most cases is Q4 2018 otherwise they would have said Q3 2018). Right now Intel does not seem to have a clue as to when they will ramp 10nm. There is no indication that Intel has solved their process problems at 10nm so the product pipeline might be adversely affected. It looks very bad if you are an Intel shareholder. 2017 results are based on years of PC and server market domination. AMD has now solid products for desktop, notebook and server lined up and ramping in 2018 like Pinnacle Ridge, Raven Ridge and EPYC . More importantly GF is moving 7LP to risk production in H1 2018 with move to volume production in H1 2019.

By paperlaunching it?
Come on this launch is another joke by Intel's marketing department.
When Covfefe Lake reaches decent availability one might as well wait™ for Pinnacle Ridge.
Well said. Daniel Nenni of semiwiki states that 50,000 CFL CPUs were shipped by Intel for launch. Thats just laughable. With a die size of 150 sq mm I think that less than 400 wafers were run to build this initial launch volume. Intel did not build up volume for a quarter or so before launching CFL as they normally do.

Yea, with Icelake we'll see full Desktop lines, full Notebook lines, and -SP server parts all in 2019.
With Intel struggling to get ~70 sq mm CNL dies to ramp in H1 2018 and pushing volume availability to H2 2018 its going to be interesting to see when and how Intel ramp Icelake for desktop/notebook , but more so for server where Icelake server dies are going to be > 300 sqmm. EMIB and server first arrive at 10++ in 2020 and cannot help Icelake-SP.

I have to revise my assessment on Brian Kraznich. The Q3 results are quite good. Despite what looks like a very messy situation, they've effectively countered Ryzen with Coffeelake.
Intel's current results is the result of years of domination of server market with no compeition. Lets see how Intel fares in 2018 when AMD ramps competitive products across desktop (Pinnacle Ridge), notebook (Raven Ridge) and server (EPYC). EPYC server platforms from OEMs arrive in Q4 2017 so the real damage is going to be in 2018.
 
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raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,003
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7LP goes HVM H2 2018.
It's very, very, very funny, just not for our friends at Intel.
I don't think its going to happen. GF states risk production in H1 2018 which typically means Q2 2018. It takes 12 months typically to go from risk to volume production. GF cannot bypass yield learning and the initial difficulties that they are bound to face when ramping a leading edge node with 88 mask sets.
 

Yotsugi

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2017
1,029
469
106
I don't think its going to happen. GF states risk production in H1 2018 which typically means Q2 2018. It takes 12 months typically to go from risk to volume production. GF cannot bypass yield learning and the initial difficulties that they are bound to face when ramping a leading edge node with 88 mask sets.
They've stated H2 2018 for HVM.
I'd trust Patton, he's an okay dude.
We'll see anyway.
 

Jan Olšan

Senior member
Jan 12, 2017
263
248
86
I have looked and could find nothing, I only found the slide I linked from multiple sources. More likely you are just "misremembering".
I'll help you guys.



Yes, both these slides are from the same event, same day. The disparity? Who knows why. They might be referring to different definitions of production...
It is also possible that these dates are mostly "for other customers". If AMD was tightly involved with the development, they might be able to ship stuff ahead of more regular customers. Something like Nvidia at the TSMC 12nm.

But it's H1 (better, Q1), Patton confirmed it at GTC China.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20171024PD215.html
I agree that this is no rumour. I'll assume they didn't do a silly mistake like hearing Q3 and typing down Q1.
The 12LP node will be ready for volume production in the first quarter of 2018, according to the foundry.
The company contact/presenter said it, period. We can argue about the commitment being realistic or likely to slip, but deny it was said? No.
Also is it a more recent info than the slides from GTC 2017? Yes...
 
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jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
7,275
895
126
With Intel struggling to get ~70 sq mm CNL dies to ramp in H1 2018 and pushing volume availability to H2 2018 its going to be interesting to see when and how Intel ramp Icelake for desktop/notebook , but more so for server where Icelake server dies are going to be > 300 sqmm. EMIB and server first arrive at 10++ in 2020 and cannot help Icelake-SP.
Obviously they are not going to release server dies without EMIB. I do think 2019 for Tigerlake-SP is realistic at this point and they should have proper motivation to get it out.
 

PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
2,605
1,540
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I'll help you guys.



Yes, both these slides are from the same event, same day. The disparity? Who knows why. They might be referring to different definitions of production...
It is also possible that these dates are mostly "for other customers". If AMD was tightly involved with the development, they might be able to ship stuff ahead of more regular customers. Something like Nvidia at the TSMC 12nm.
I don't see much disparity. The reference to Production start on the first slide is obviously Risk production, not Volume production.

I see ZERO evidence that anyone said Q1 was volume production.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
6,331
1,916
136
Icelake Server is not happening. Hell, desktop Icelake isn't happening because of the yield. If Tigerlake Server is not possible in 2019 then their only option is to milk Cascade Lake some more.
That'll be very bad news against EPYC on 7LP. Intel must be pushing the server team really hard to bring TigerLake in.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
6,565
1,090
126
Icelake Server is not happening. Hell, desktop Icelake isn't happening because of the yield. If Tigerlake Server is not possible in 2019 then their only option is to milk Cascade Lake some more.
I'm not sure where you are getting this, but its Icelake Server in 2019, with Sapphire Rapids a year after that. Sapphire Rapids is likely the 10nm++ first they talk about. 10nm++ is too early for Icelake Server. Their process readiness date shows a greater gap between 10+ and 10++ than 10 is to 10+.

Icelake Server platform even has a name! It's called Whitley. Icelake is the generation like Sandy Bridge, and Skylake, where you see the core being available in all segments. I assume the Deep Learning oriented VNNI instruction for AVX-512 will be a Icelake Server specific instruction.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
22,208
626
121
Well said. Daniel Nenni of semiwiki states that 50,000 CFL CPUs were shipped by Intel for launch. Thats just laughable.

EPYC server platforms from OEMs arrive in Q4 2017 so the real damage is going to be in 2018.
I find it amusing that in the same post you (1) bash Intel for shipping 50,000 CPUs as a paper launch and then (2) applaud AMD with EPYC coming in Q4 2017 when it was launched in June 2017:
https://www.anandtech.com/show/11562/amd-epyc-launch-event-live-blog-starts-4pm-et-
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
7,275
895
126
I'm not sure where you are getting this, but its Icelake Server in 2019, with Sapphire Rapids a year after that. Sapphire Rapids is likely the 10nm++ first they talk about. 10nm++ is too early for Icelake Server. Their process readiness date shows a greater gap between 10+ and 10++ than 10 is to 10+.
I'm telling you, there's no way Intel is shipping a 10 nm server part without EMIB. They obviously planned for it at one point but it's not happening now. The problems plaguing 10nm doesn't necessarily mean that 10++ would be delayed in kind too. Keep in mind that Intel's 10 nm has been "ready" for some time, it's just that the yield is so terrible that they can't sell any product.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
6,565
1,090
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My thoughts on release.

EOY 2017 - Cannonlake Y
Q1 2018 - Cannonlake U 2C, with ramp up over the year, meeting their claims of "HVM 10nm 2018"
Q2 2018 - Coffeelake GT3e and 6C GT2
BTS 2018 - Coffeelake 8C Desktop

Spring 2019 - Icelake Y
Q2 2019 - Coffeelake 6C, Kabylake-R, and Cannonlake U, all get replaced with Icelake derivatives
BTS 2019 - Icelake Desktop, and GT3e* mobile Icelake

*GT3e takes extra time to make. They always came later. With Icelake generation we have the possibility of eDRAM being replaced with HBM.
 

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