News Intel 4Q25 Earnings

[Hitman928]

They are still losing money, margins are really bad, Q1 2026 is going to be especially bad. They have cut costs, not enough to make money though.

Intel Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results (2026-01-22)

Intel Corporation today reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. The introduction of our first products on Intel 18 A– the most advanced process technology developed and manufactured in the United States– marks an important milestone, and we’ re working aggressively to grow...

seekingalpha.com

 

[adroc_thurston]

dayum, that's rough.
They're never climbling out of toiletbowl-tier GMs aren't they.

 

[gdansk]

Beat expectations.
But after market didn't like something. Probably the Q1 outlook, posted above.

 

[adroc_thurston]

But after market didn't like something. Probably the Q1 outlook, posted above.

Indeed, Q1 guidance is bad-bad.

 

[Saylick]

Don't have time to digest it all, but Ted Zinzer said that Intel's soft Q1 guidance was partially attributed to not having enough supply for seasonal demand, which I find strange since they own their own fabs. I wonder if AMD can capitalize on this opportunity then...

 

[adroc_thurston]

Intel's soft Q1 guidance was partially attributed to not having enough supply for seasonal demand, which I find strange since they own their own fabs.

It's all legacy Intel 7 mix which they have supply shortage of.

 

[NTMBK]

Looking seriously rough. They need competitive products, yesterday.

 

[branch_suggestion]

AMD could very well surpass Intel in quarterly revenue this year, with 1/3 the employees and no fabs to worry about.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD could very well surpass Intel in quarterly revenue this year, with 1/3 the employees and no fabs to worry about.

they will, Helios ramp will be pretty dang mean

 

[inquiss]

they will, Helios ramp will be pretty dang mean

Yeah, gonna be fun. Meta must be a shoe in, obviously, wonder who the other big players will be.

Think it will take till Q4 to overtake Intel, depends how much supply AMD can get for servers this year though - they just be flying there.

Any bets on Q3 or Q4? On not this year I guess is the other option.

 

[poke01]

hmm did they say nova lake Q4.

 

[DavidC1]

Q1 sales are also going to be impacted by the RAM/SSD price increase. This may partially explain why their client sales decreased by 7%. This means there's a potential the holiday sales have crashed(20%+ reduction). The Q1 estimates might end up being an optimistic one.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

I find it very hard to predict what's going to happen this year, because of the RAM market. I'd expect that the consumer side of both AMD and Intel won't do that well, but if your average AI server has more ram per cpu than other servers, that might hurt the server side too.

 

[jpiniero]

Q1 sales are also going to be impacted by the RAM/SSD price increase. This may partially explain why their client sales decreased by 7%.

Corpos are definitely going to hold back on purchases. If Intel is short on Cheap Raptor Lake; that sure isn't going to help. Kinda figure some might cheap out on the CPU to make up for the RAM increases.

 

[DavidC1]

Corpos are definitely going to hold back on purchases. If Intel is short on Cheap Raptor Lake; that sure isn't going to help. Kinda figure some might cheap out on the CPU to make up for the RAM increases.

Corpos? Consumers are already holding back on purchases and they aren't a small amount either. Not to mention few consumers go and buy business PCs as well. Let's not forget actual unemployment and inflation is 4-8x higher than official claims.

When Sandy Bridge was released Intel reported 20% increase in sales for that year. I've seen people around me with 2nd Gen Intel Core(Sandy Bridge) computers. I even saw a documentary about working conditions in a "poor" country and their living room had a desktop computer with 2nd Gen Intel Core logo, and that was Spring, 4-5 months after release! 😂

Meaning of poor in the 21st century is definitely not the same as poor even just 100 years ago.

 

[DavidC1]

You know, they say hindsight is 20/20, but now I call theml, Intel "bad timing" Corporation.

They make a decent chip with Pantherlake, at a time when the prices in memory and SSD will likely limit it's impact. And they got their dGPU out months after crypto boom stopped. And if Xe4 rumors are accurate, then perhaps after AI market crashes they would be significantly behind competition, to the likes of B390 vs 890M.

Had they continued their Optane lineup, they could have benefitted from the AI push for their datacenter lineup. Heck, they could have got enthusiast Optane DIMMs out for PCs, and have a slow memory + fast memory tier. The DIMMs with 100-300nS latency is actually fast enough to be RAM for vast majority of use cases.

 

[jpiniero]

Corpos? Consumers are already holding back on purchases and they aren't a small amount either. Not to mention few consumers go and buy business PCs as well.

Looking at Amazon, consumers don't seem to mind buying Apple...

 

[DavidC1]

Intel could have benefitted from the NAND division as well. Their timing is exquisite, but in a bad way.

 

[Joe NYC]

Q1 sales are also going to be impacted by the RAM/SSD price increase. This may partially explain why their client sales decreased by 7%. This means there's a potential the holiday sales have crashed(20%+ reduction). The Q1 estimates might end up being an optimistic one.

It does not make sense since Intel is at the same time saying they are in the biggest shortage in years, and Intel is still saying it as of now. They anticipate Q1 to be the worst point of the current shortage.

So the big question is where did all of Intel capacity go? Intel used to serve a LOT more demand and used to generate a lot more revenue with the existing capacity that's in place.

All of the 14nm and 10nm capacity that used to generate 25-30% more revenue more CPUs. All that capacity is still good for Intel 10 and Intel 7 today. And Intel says this is the capacity that has the biggest shortage.

 

[poke01]

Looking at Amazon, consumers don't seem to mind buying Apple...

cause Apple pricing doesn't fluctuate, its set in stone till next refresh.

 

[Joe NYC]

And they got their dGPU out months after crypto boom stopped.

It's even worse than that. Intel released a dedicated crypto mining chip just after the crypto mining boom crashed.

 

[Kepler_L2]

It does not make sense since Intel is at the same time saying they are in the biggest shortage in years, and Intel is still saying it as of now. They anticipate Q1 to be the worst point of the current shortage.

So the big question is where did all of Intel capacity go? Intel used to serve a LOT more demand and used to generate a lot more revenue with the existing capacity that's in place.

All of the 14nm and 10nm capacity that used to generate 25-30% more revenue more CPUs. All that capacity is still good for Intel 10 and Intel 7 today. And Intel says this is the capacity that has the biggest shortage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2012890580443963417

 

[adroc_thurston]

Had they continued their Optane lineup, they could have benefitted from the AI push for their datacenter lineup. Heck, they could have got enthusiast Optane DIMMs out for PCs, and have a slow memory + fast memory tier. The DIMMs with 100-300nS latency is actually fast enough to be RAM for vast majority of use cases.

PCMs suck balls since there not scalable.

 

[poke01]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2012890580443963417

wait itsn't that a good thing? Are these server products selling well?

 

[Joe NYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2012890580443963417

One thing about is that does not make sense is that Intel is making it sounds like there is a gap. As if the production output disappeared.

If the capacity was diverted, it means that new wafers "in" were diverted, and all of the wafers that were currently in process just continued through the fab and to packaging. They did not disappear.

So even if new wafer starts shifted in H2 2025 to server, the old wafers (Raptor) prior to switch would still be going out of the fab throughout Q3, Q4. Yet, the client revenue in Q4 is down.