News Intel 3Q25 Earnings

[Hitman928]

Intel beat expectations this past quarter thanks largely to large cost cutting measures and some asset sales. Losses have improved thanks to the cost cutting and Intel has shown improvement y/y, but revenue and margins are still quite low for Intel historically. Maybe first signs of a turn around, however, Q4 outlook is pretty weak so not sure the turn around is working yet.






Outlook for Q4

Intel Reports Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results (2025-10-23)

Intel Corporation today reported third-quarter 2025 financial results. “We took meaningful steps this quarter to strengthen our balance sheet, including accelerated funding from the U.S. Government and investments by NVIDIA and SoftBank Group that increase our operational flexibility and...

seekingalpha.com

 

[regen1]

Broad YoY numbers(Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024) (and even Q3 25 vs Q2 2025 due to restructuring in latter) are kinda not so meaningful since they are distorted by one-off charges(restructuring and impairment/deprication of equipments).

R&D and Administration charges are cut 1Bn$(YoY).

 

[adroc_thurston]

however, Q4 outlook is pretty weak so not sure the turn around is working yet.

Well turns out they're capacity constrained for stuff they actually sell.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Well turns out they're capacity constrained for stuff they actually sell.

And it is all trailing products, not a good look.
Since they said 18A(P) is only a real node in 2027 that does not bode well for PTL unit shipments in 2026.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Since they said 18A(P) is only a real node in 2027 that does not bode well for PTL unit shipments in 2026.

That was always a thing.
PTL's a pretty expensive shebang with no perf.

 

[Khato]

PTL's a pretty expensive shebang with no perf.

Oh? How expensive is it? Feel free to provide unit cost for any of the three configurations.

The Q3 results are somewhat promising. DCAI having flag revenue compared to Q3 2024 with $500M lower costs is at least on the right trajectory. And matches their statements regarding a capacity constraint resulting in improved margins. Will be interesting to see what the market share numbers look like.

 

[desrever]

People are way too optimistic about these numbers initially. Now stock is going back to before and AMD is mooning.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Now stock is going back to before and AMD is mooning.

oh wtf
WHY

How expensive is it?

Plenty.

Feel free to provide unit cost for any of the three configurations.

You gotta pay me for that.

 

[Khato]

You gotta pay me for that.

That's comical. You want to make an assertion, then back it up.

In general I try not to make assertions based on confidential information as the source cannot be shared. I don't mind using confidential information to call out nonsense though.

 

[Joe NYC]

People are way too optimistic about these numbers initially. Now stock is going back to before and AMD is mooning.

I think the report bodes well for AMD. Demand is strong, Intel can't meet all of the demand, Intel is rising prices. Somebody (AMD) can fill the void.

I think there may be one tiny issue though: Memory prices, specifically DDR5 prices are rising. China now makes DDR4 and is selling it cheaply. Raptor Lake appears to be the only processor that can use DDR4.

 

[desrever]

I think the report bodes well for AMD. Demand is strong, Intel can't meet all of the demand, Intel is rising prices. Somebody (AMD) can fill the void.

I think there may be one tiny issue though: Memory prices, specifically DDR5 prices are rising. China now makes DDR4 and is selling it cheaply. Raptor Lake appears to be the only processor that can use DDR4.

DDR4 prices are now going up even more than DDR5, I don't think anyone is going to go DDR4 unless they need to support old hardware at this point.

 

[Saylick]

oh wtf
WHY

Quantum deal with IBM, apparently.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Quantum deal with IBM, apparently.

Pretty sure that was announced a while ago.
idk why the stock would rally.

 

[Saylick]

Pretty sure that was announced a while ago.
idk why the stock would rally.

Because the market doesn't understand tech and it mostly reacts on hype.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Because the market doesn't understand tech and it mostly reacts on hype.

I know the average trader is a monkey with lackluster impulse control and delayed reasoning; I still can't explain the rally.

 

[Thunder 57]

You gotta pay me for that.

Hey I think I figured out who you are! Charlie from Semiaccurate, am I right? 🤣

 

[adroc_thurston]

Hey I think I figured out who you are! Charlie from Semiaccurate, am I right?

Not really.
Remember, his poasting style is even more abrasive than mine.

 

[Thunder 57]

DDR4 prices are now going up even more than DDR5, I don't think anyone is going to go DDR4 unless they need to support old hardware at this point.

Glad I have some 16GB sticks of DDR4 that have value I can sell. People always overpay for best of the last gen stuff rather than do a proper upgrade. CPU's too, especially back when Intel had a monopoly on them. Hell, I did well with a Phenom II X4 940 because it was one of only two quad cores for AM2.

 

[Thunder 57]

Not really.
Remember, his poasting style is even more abrasive than mine.

Guess not, because at least you can take a joke 👍.

 

[Doug S]

Glad I have some 16GB sticks of DDR4 that have value I can sell. People always overpay for gest of the last gen stuff rather than do a proper upgrade. CPU's too, especially back when Intel had a monopoly on them. Hell, I did well with a Phenom II X4 940 because it was one of only two quad cores for AM2.

Yeah thanks for posting that, I have some DDR4 laying around from my old PC that I was going to send to the recycler when I got around to it. Figured it wasn't worth the hassle to sell it when I bought 32 GB of DDR4 for $39 for my laptop in May. Might be worth the hassle now!

 

[Joe NYC]

Pretty sure that was announced a while ago.
idk why the stock would rally.

The specifics were announced today.

Apparently, IBM developed a system, using AMD FPGA, to correct errors of the Quantum Computer, that often makes errors in whether the cat is alive or dead.

 

[adroc_thurston]

The specifics were announced today.

Apparently, IBM developed a system, using AMD FPGA, to correct errors of the Quantum Computer, that often makes errors in whether the cat is alive or dead.

But that's a total meme.
Why did the stock rally.

 

[Saylick]

But that's a total meme.
Why did the stock rally.

Again, because the market doesn't understand tech and it mostly reacts on hype.

 

[Joe NYC]

I know the average trader is a monkey with lackluster impulse control and delayed reasoning; I still can't explain the rally.

IMO, it is a reaction to Intel's earnings report, where Intel announced that the demand is so strong that Intel is capacity constrained. And Intel will continue to be capacity constrained well into Q1 and Q2 of 2026. In other words, full 12 months of shortages for Intel that started somewhat in Q2 2025, but became more material in Q3 2025/

That means if Intel can ship everything they can produce and have in inventory, so can AMD, which would then result in increased revenue and profits for AMD.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Again, because the market doesn't understand tech and it mostly reacts on hype.

I need my hammer.

IMO, it is a reaction to Intel's earnings report, where Intel announced that the demand is so strong that Intel is capacity constrained.

Well that's just dumb.
Intel is capacity constrained because their product mix is mostly legacy 10nm stuff.
All the new parts Intel has negative incentive to sell since margins there are Pretty Bad.

That means if Intel can ship everything they can produce and have in inventory, so can AMD, which would then result in increased revenue and profits for AMD

Eh, only in theory.
We'll see on AMD Q4 guide.