News Intel 2Q24 Financial Results

[igor_kavinski]

Decent stopgap, too, shame about the catastrophic explosion bits.

Can't believe you are saying that. Even before the overvolting crap turning these CPUs into deadweight rocks, they were BAD from a power efficiency perspective. Has there been a more power virus of a CPU in x86 history?



Please educate me on how the cheaper highlighted Intel CPU is "decent".

 

[Josh128]

"He himself said that most AMD engineers had lost hope that they could ever create a competitive architecture again after the string of failures starting from Bulldozer debut. With Keller's guidance, AMD's resurgence happened. Same people. Different leadership. Unbelievable execution"

lol anyone, please cite where Keller said this! As far as Intel, this appears to be the time to invest. Im down over $4K on my investment(s) in Intel in the last two years, but there is NO WAY it will be allowed to fail. If it can come back without being subsidized / basically bought by the US government is the question now.

 

[adroc_thurston]

they were BAD from a power efficiency perspective

Na, 13600k in particular was aight.

 

[RanFodar]

"He himself said that most AMD engineers had lost hope that they could ever create a competitive architecture again after the string of failures starting from Bulldozer debut. With Keller's guidance, AMD's resurgence happened. Same people. Different leadership. Unbelievable execution"

lol anyone, please cite where Keller said this! As far as Intel, this appears to be the time to invest. Im down over $4K on my investment(s) in Intel in the last two years, but there is NO WAY it will be allowed to fail. If it can come back without being subsidized / basically bought by the US government is the question now.

Only way to see this is Intel being reincarnated ala IBM, but I mean this in a good way. The Intel of present will not endure for another decade. See this article here:

The Resurrection Of Intel Will Take More Than Three Days

Intel’s second quarter is pretty much a carbon copy of the first three months of 2024 when it comes to revenues across its newly constituted groups, and

www.nextplatform.com

 

[igor_kavinski]

"He himself said that most AMD engineers had lost hope that they could ever create a competitive architecture again after the string of failures starting from Bulldozer debut. With Keller's guidance, AMD's resurgence happened. Same people. Different leadership. Unbelievable execution"

lol anyone, please cite where Keller said this!

They revamped their site so had to retrieve it from Archive.org: https://web.archive.org/web/2024010...-report-jim-kellers-journey-from-cpus-to-ceo/

Keller firmly believes that despite the best intentions of the participants, groups can have “gaps” that impede progress. He said, “Some people recognize it, others don’t.” At AMD, he said, “I met some people who told me that the team could never build a world-class CPU, although I thought they could.”

 

[Hitman928]

AMD's QoQ revenue growth change since 2017 till date has ballooned due to releasing a good product (Zen 3) coincident with the pandemic in full effect. Now, it is as stagnant as ever:

Interesting take. Not sure it's really accurate though. Pretty much every semi company had huge revenue boosts during the pandemic as everyone was stockpiling chips on fears of foundry shut downs. The fact that AMD has been able to get back to pandemic highs without the same environment is really good. Additionally, they are projecting for growth beyond pandemic levels, so they will be reaching new record highs in revenues over the next, at least, 2 quarters.

DC launches superimposed on historical qoq revenue change % data:

View attachment 104354

Desktop launches superimposed on historical qoq revenue change % data:

View attachment 104355

Q on Q change is a terrible way to gauge long term growth, especially for companies that are in cyclical markets. At least use a trailing 12 month model.

Intel's on the other hand was stagnant right up to the pandemic, then collapsed, and has now recovered to pre-pandemic levels -

They have not. Intel was at ~$70B a year revenue leading up to the pandemic. For 2024 they are going to be in the low $50B range. Unless by pre-pandemic you mean a decade+ ago, in which case, that would be accurate. That problem with that, though, is inflation and costs have gone up significantly since then and so profits have cratered on the same revenue. In terms of Q on Q change, for 2024, Q1 - Q3 revenue is/will be basically flat so practically no growth. Difference from pre-pandemic Q on Q change, they are stagnating at historic (decade +) low revenue vs all time high revenues and profits are in the gutter as well.

DC launches superimposed on historical qoq revenue change % data:

View attachment 104356

Desktop launches superimposed on historical qoq revenue change % data:

View attachment 104357

It is way too early to sound the death knell for Intel, because among the US semiconductor companies the only ones whose growth hasn't come from ballooning P/E ratios are Intel and Micron.

Forget stock price, just look at revenue, profits and debt (which has grown from ~$12B at the beginning of your charts to ~$48B today). Also, to suggest other stock prices have only grown due to increase P/E is ridiculous.

AI is imploding soon. This week's market movement is proof of that.

Maybe. I think it is on the verge of some kind of correction if not a pop, but that doesn't mean it's going to zero and will likely still have significant investments made for many years to come.

 

[turtile]

"He himself said that most AMD engineers had lost hope that they could ever create a competitive architecture again after the string of failures starting from Bulldozer debut. With Keller's guidance, AMD's resurgence happened. Same people. Different leadership. Unbelievable execution"

lol anyone, please cite where Keller said this! As far as Intel, this appears to be the time to invest. Im down over $4K on my investment(s) in Intel in the last two years, but there is NO WAY it will be allowed to fail. If it can come back without being subsidized / basically bought by the US government is the question now.

I watched the interview about this but I can't find it now. He didn't say that the engineers lost hope. He said that many engineers agreed that they could do it (such as Mike Clark). There were also two teams, one x86 and one ARM. They canceled ARM and that team started working on Zen 3. Keller was not happy about that and I assume that's why he left.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Na, 13600k in particular was aight.

Something is wrong with you today. In that graph, the 13600K has even WORSE power efficiency than the 14600K !!!!

Only way to explain your statement is that you OWN a 13600K or know someone who does and used it and it seemed alright to you.

 

[jpiniero]

Not really, RPL was a stopgap since MTL was running behind the schedule.

Intel never intended to sell that much of Meteor. Volume was intended to be mainly Raptor and still is.

What happened is that AI Hype made OEMs much more interested in Meteor and Intel can't deliver.

 

[Doug S]

The problem is that the US would destroy Taiwan and TSMC on its way out.

The US would destroy Taiwan? That seems unlikely, if that's the plan then Taiwan needs to seriously reconsider our "defense" partnership

It doesn't matter if not even a firecracker fell on TSMC property, the fabs would be useless to China because ASML will not provide support for the equipment. Without that support, they are unusable.

 

[jpiniero]

The US would destroy Taiwan? That seems unlikely, if that's the plan then Taiwan needs to seriously reconsider our "defense" partnership

It doesn't matter if not even a firecracker fell on TSMC property, the fabs would be useless to China because ASML will not provide support for the equipment. Without that support, they are unusable.

The US will cave. Just watch.

Intel isn't going to last long enough at this rate though.

 

[igor_kavinski]

What happened is that AI Hype made OEMs much more interested in Meteor and Intel can't deliver.

Which is surprising because the OEMs knew that 40 TOPS was Microsoft's minimum requirement for Copilot+ and yet they decided to peddle Intel's crappy low performance AI SoC to customers. Serves Intel right for amassing losses over the production of a CRAP product.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Something is wrong with you today. In that graph, the 13600K has even WORSE power efficiency than the 14600K !!!!

Irrelevant. It was good value good gaming perf part.

Intel never intended to sell that much of Meteor.

Yea they did.

 

[Josh128]

They revamped their site so had to retrieve it from Archive.org: https://web.archive.org/web/2024010...-report-jim-kellers-journey-from-cpus-to-ceo/

Theres a big difference between "some people" and "most engineers" though, lol!

 

[Doug S]

By itself, this is bad, but they began to believe their superiority was intrinsic to being Intel, AKA hubris. They lost sight of the fact that they were lucky and puffed themselves up as the sole masters of silicon.

I think they started down the wrong path when they turned down Apple's entreaties in the mid 2000s, telling Apple they'd only fab phone chips for them if they used x86. Now I'm not saying they should have been able to recognize what iPhone would become. No one thought Apple would be where they are now, not even Steve Jobs. I remember between the iPhone announcement and its launch it was reported that supposedly Apple's internal projections for the iPhone is that it would reach 1% of the overall mobile market after 2-3 years, which would have meant selling around 10 million phones a year, and people laughed and laughed.

Regardless it was obvious at the time to anyone with a brain that cell phones would get smarter over time (whether it was Apple, Nokia, Microsoft, or Blackberry that got them there) and their computing needs would grow continue to grow as they had already been doing since the late 90s Nokia bricks where running Snake was most demanding task the CPU would be asked to perform.

That hubris you speak of caused Intel to see everything as fitting into an x86 sized box. They feared low end CPUs - because the reason they were in the place they were in 2005 is because their "low end CPUs" ate the RISC market from the bottom up - the RISC vendors couldn't compete against the PC market's economies of scales (and it didn't help that market was split five ways too)

Intel they felt they had to control the low end market, and they would do it by making the market below them x86, hence the development of Atom and all their ridiculous effort trying to get the embedded world to adopt x86. They didn't want to be attacked from below like PCs had attacked RISC, like RISC had attacked Minis, like Minis had attacked mainframes. So that's why you saw Atom, but OEMs buying Atoms were contractually restricted from putting them in a PC - gotta preserve your margins!

 

[H433x0n]

This was not fully explained why Intel moved the production, but I think the hint was that Ireland fab can produce higher volume, while Oregon fab is more research oriented.

We can speculate why, what is pressing Intel to manufacture more MTLs than originally planned, even when such a change of plan is very costly.

It was to speed up the availability of Intel 3, which was Oregon exclusive. Oregon is Intel’s best fab - it’s their research fab with their top talent. The process tech first gets developed here and is exported to other locations. All of their top talent is in Oregon.

They tried to push Intel 3 to Ireland on an expedited timeframe for more MTL refresh volume, some of the yields were unsatisfactory and so Oregon had to do hot lots to meet volume commitments.

 

[Gideon]

He didn't say that the engineers lost hope. He said that many engineers agreed that they could do it (such as Mike Clark

He did say that at least in his Linus Interview:

(The tagged AMD part)

 

[turtile]

He did say that at least in his Linus Interview:

(The tagged AMD part)

I didn't see this one or the other one that was posted. I think the one I watched also mentioned that he left Intel because of arguments over outsourcing manufacturing.

 

[Hitman928]

It was to speed up the availability of Intel 3, which was Oregon exclusive. Oregon is Intel’s best fab - it’s their research fab with their top talent. The process tech first gets developed here and is exported to other locations. All of their top talent is in Oregon.

They tried to push Intel 3 to Ireland on an expedited timeframe for more MTL refresh volume, some of the yields were unsatisfactory and so Oregon had to do hot lots to meet volume commitments.

My impressions from the call was that they are no longer planning on any I3 production runs in Oregon but all of the I3 production is shifted to Ireland. Hence the bit about not having to spend capital twice (once for preparing Oregon for production and again for Ireland).

Relevant quote:

We were originally planning to ramp Meteor Lake, Intel 3, and even run production on Intel 4 -- sorry, Intel 4, and then run production on Intel 3 in Oregon, which is our TD fab, our process technology fab, kind of our development fab. We made the decision to more quickly shift all of that over to Ireland. And it's a good move because it saves capital. We don't have to spend capital twice essentially. And it starts to mature the Intel 4 and Intel 3 processes in Ireland more quickly.

 

[Nothingness]

An aging workforce that's there to retire rather than grow (dare I say it... boomers).

Yes "boomers" don't bring anything to a company. What an utterly stupid generalization. I guess you live in your mom's basement.

 

[Joe NYC]

Welcome to Wacko World said the sign. Only in an insane world would Intel failing be better for world peace, but here we are.

Yup, you went one level further down this rabbit hole. 🙂

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Yes "boomers" don't bring anything to a company. What an utterly stupid generalization. I guess you live in your mom's basement.

If you had Adam's money, you'd burn yours. And start following the first rule - attack the post, not the poster.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Theres a big difference between "some people" and "most engineers" though, lol!

Those "some people" knew most of the engineers and their morale. That's why they said what they said to Keller. You think Keller would send out a survey asking each engineer what they really thought about AMD getting back to top?

 

[Joe NYC]

Only way Pat gets to save himself now is to declare he will take annual $1 salary for the rest of his CEO career at Intel.

Pat is using his excessive salary Intel pays him to pull publicity stunts, such as buying Intel stock with the money Intel just gave him, which is supposed to represent to other shareholders how confident Pat is about Intel.

Last time, on May 1, 2024 at $30.

He would not be able to do that with $1. Except perhaps on Robin Hood app...

 

[H433x0n]

My impressions from the call was that they are no longer planning on any I3 production runs in Oregon but all of the I3 production is shifted to Ireland. Hence the bit about not having to spend capital twice (once for preparing Oregon for production and again for Ireland).

Relevant quote:

That’s consistent with what I wrote. Oregon will run some volume of new nodes shortly after development but the goal is to get it outsourced to another Intel fab as quickly as possible.