Inflation adjusted gas prices 1918-2008

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
What? Shouldn't the newest data point be at $3.99, which is the current national average?
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,032
26,911
136
Originally posted by: jpeyton
What? Shouldn't the newest data point be at $3.99, which is the current national average?

Old graph, plus year to date average.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: ironwing
Originally posted by: jpeyton
What? Shouldn't the newest data point be at $3.99, which is the current national average?

Old graph, plus year to date average.
These days if it's a month old it's old data. Average is now $3.98 or $3.99. that will clearly be broken next week.
 

palehorse

Lifer
Dec 21, 2005
11,521
0
76
FYI: the chart uses the yearly averages, not the average daily prices. In the case of 2008, it's the year-to-date average of $3.08.... and climbing.

it's f'n sad.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.
You may be right, but we're almost just as likely for it to precipitously drop by July. Nobody knows, it's like flipping a coin at this point.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.
You may be right, but we're almost just as likely for it to precipitously drop by July. Nobody knows, it's like flipping a coin at this point.
That's the interesting thing.

If the price of oil jumps, prices at the pump usually jump too about a day or two later.

But when oil fell, or held steady; when inventories surged as consumption dropped; prices at the pump still jumped.

It's like an elevator ride with no top floor.

I also read today that someone attributed the HUGE surge in oil prices today to the Israeli saber-rattling about an "inevitable" military conflict with Iran. That's not surprising.
 

Cuda1447

Lifer
Jul 26, 2002
11,757
0
71
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.
You may be right, but we're almost just as likely for it to precipitously drop by July. Nobody knows, it's like flipping a coin at this point.
That's the interesting thing.

If the price of oil jumps, prices at the pump usually jump too about a day or two later.

But when oil fell, or held steady; when inventories surged as consumption dropped; prices at the pump still jumped.

It's like an elevator ride with no top floor.

I also read today that someone attributed the HUGE surge in oil prices today to the Israeli saber-rattling about an "inevitable" military conflict with Iran. That's not surprising.



Ya, thats freaking annoying/confusing. I don't fully understand exactly how we get our gas prices and why they are so hire. I don't think any of us here do, but its annoying that gas had dropped from $130ish a barrel to $120 and held steady down there for a few days, no change in gas prices though. Now it jumps up to $140 a barrel over what? Speculation I guess, but thats going to cause an immediate jump in prices at the pump. Its so quick to go up, but takes so long to go down. Arrrgh!
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.

I dont think we are going to see it. I am seeing some serious demand destruction. Today when I drove home, I was in the fast lane passing people going 65. The speed limit was 70. Driving 65 a few months ago would have got yourself run over as everyone was doing 80...
 

mozirry

Senior member
Sep 18, 2006
760
1
0
I love these charts because I fail to see the "classic boom bust nature of oil" that oil companies talk about. The only bust I see is the one from 1980's
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.

I dont think we are going to see it. I am seeing some serious demand destruction. Today when I drove home, I was in the fast lane passing people going 65. The speed limit was 70. Driving 65 a few months ago would have got yourself run over as everyone was doing 80...
I see them remaining artificially high because I don't see the situation in the Middle East improving anytime soon; at least not until the Iraqis take over their country and we begin withdrawal.

Another theory I've heard is that oil companies along with speculators are keeping prices artificially high to put increased pressure on drilling in areas that are currently off-limits, like ANWR and some coastal areas.
 

dahunan

Lifer
Jan 10, 2002
18,191
3
0
Originally posted by: miri
$4.47 for 87 octane in orange county

Scary.. no wonder I just don't get in the car much anymore..

Can't be without 4WD in CO ... but my 4Runner gets 17mpg :laugh:
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Prices should be around $4.50 gallon in my state by July 4th. Currently at $4.15.

I didn't think we'd approach $5 so soon, but I didn't expect it to hit $139/barrel today either.

I dont think we are going to see it. I am seeing some serious demand destruction. Today when I drove home, I was in the fast lane passing people going 65. The speed limit was 70. Driving 65 a few months ago would have got yourself run over as everyone was doing 80...
I see them remaining artificially high because I don't see the situation in the Middle East improving anytime soon; at least not until the Iraqis take over their country and we begin withdrawal.

Another theory I've heard is that oil companies along with speculators are keeping prices artificially high to put increased pressure on drilling in areas that are currently off-limits, like ANWR and some coastal areas.


When you kill the demand, there will be no one to buy oil at $140. At that point prices are going to plummet. Demand right now is dropping and could drop by a very large amount as it appears we are a tipping point for demand.

Right now supply is coming up. Rig count in US is at a 25 year high and US demand is dropping. Countries are dropping or reducing their gas subsidies. It is not matter of if the bubble bursts, it is a matter of when.

btw iraq is pumping 2.5M barrels a day and that is on the rise.
 

jackschmittusa

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2003
5,972
1
0
Regardless of what the charts say, I've been driving for over 40yr and gas money was almost never a consideration. After I got married, we did a lot of recreational driving for years, looking at new houses, day trips on weekends to other cities, etc.. "Can we afford the gas?" never really came up. Now I postpone trips until I have several stops to make, then plan the shortest route to all of them.
 

rockyct

Diamond Member
Jun 23, 2001
6,656
32
91
Between the rising airline costs and gas prices, I think a lot of people are going to go on vacations much closer to home than normal. I know they've been saying that the past few years, but people really did drive less this year's Memorial day weekend.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,887
11,283
136
Originally posted by: jackschmittusa
Regardless of what the charts say, I've been driving for over 40yr and gas money was almost never a consideration. After I got married, we did a lot of recreational driving for years, looking at new houses, day trips on weekends to other cities, etc.. "Can we afford the gas?" never really came up. Now I postpone trips until I have several stops to make, then plan the shortest route to all of them.

QFT. Even back in the mid-80's when that chart shows the massive spike in prices, it was never really a major consideration. Sure, it hurt to pay the higher prices, but it wasn't all that painful...we still drove where we needed/wanted without having to take a second mortgage on the house to pay for it.

The biggest impact was the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Prices basically doubled overnight and we had lines at gas stations, stations out of gasoline, and rationing. I don't see any of that today. The current spikes don't appear to be caused by supply & demand, just greed.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,887
11,283
136
Originally posted by: lupi
I was paying about a buck a gallon 7 years ago.

Oh sure...bring Bush into the argument...:roll: :p

Prices (for some reason) have gone through the roof since 2000...regardless what the real cause may (or may not) be, the looks of it may certainly point to GWB finally making money for an oil company...:D
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: lupi
I was paying about a buck a gallon 7 years ago.

Oh sure...bring Bush into the argument...:roll: :p

Prices (for some reason) have gone through the roof since 2000...regardless what the real cause may (or may not) be, the looks of it may certainly point to GWB finally making money for an oil company...:D

And one could also say it has taken a really big spike since the dems took both houses of congress.
 

lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
32,539
260
126
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: lupi
I was paying about a buck a gallon 7 years ago.

Oh sure...bring Bush into the argument...:roll: :p

Prices (for some reason) have gone through the roof since 2000...regardless what the real cause may (or may not) be, the looks of it may certainly point to GWB finally making money for an oil company...:D

Actually it was meant more for this stupid remark "especially the part that will dispel any "back in my day a gallon was quarter" type of reminiscing"
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,887
11,283
136
Yeah, I was just having fun with your post...

in other related news:

Oil prices take biggest jump in history

http://www.iht.com/articles/20.../06/business/06oil.php

Oil prices had their biggest gains ever on Friday, jumping nearly $11 to a new record above $138 a barrel, after a senior Israeli politician raised the specter of an attack on Iran and the dollar fell sharply against the euro.

The unprecedented gains on Friday capped a second day of strong gains on energy markets, and fueled suspicions that commodities might be caught in a speculative bubble.

Oil futures surged $10.75, or 8 percent, to $138.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The record gain followed a jump of 5.5 percent on Thursday, bringing total two-day gains to $16 a barrel.

Stocks fell sharply. The Dow Jones industrials fell 394.64 points, or 3.1 percent, to close at 12,209.81. The S&P 500 Index plunged 43.37, or 3.1 percent, to 1,360.68, and the Nasdaq composite index sank 75.38 to 2,474.56. Chevron Corp. was the only stock that rose on the blue-chip index.

"This market is going to shoot itself in the foot," said Adam Robinson, an analyst at Lehman Brothers. "It is searching for a price that will build a safety cushion in the system ? either as inventories or as spare capacity. But this takes time. The market has gotten extremely impatient and is not willing to wait."


Oil prices take biggest jump in historyDow Jones industrial average plunges nearly 400 pointsU.S. loses 49,000 jobs in 5th monthly drop
Even as uncertainties abound about the fundamentals of the market, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East regained center stage after Israel's transportation minister, Shaul Mofaz, said Friday that an attack on Iran's nuclear sites looked "unavoidable." Iran is the second-largest oil producer within the OPEC cartel and any interruptions in its exports could push prices higher levels.

"The return of the Iranian risk premium calls for a careful assessment of the potential oil supply impact of military strikes on Iran," said Antoine Halff, an analyst at Newedge, an energy broker.

The strong volatility in energy markets in recent weeks have continued to puzzle investors and traders. Prices keep rising despite a lack of shortages in the market, and strong evidence of lower consumption in industrialized countries. But investors seem to be caught in a bullish mood, focusing instead on perceived risks to future oil supplies and continued growth in oil demand from emerging economies that subsidize fuels.

The latest jump in oil prices also came as the dollar lost almost 1 percent against the euro amid bleak economic news that fanned recession fears on Friday. The unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent last month, the government said, the biggest increase in more than two decades.

Investors reacted to the latest forecast by a large Wall Street bank that oil prices would spike to $150 a barrel in the next month because of strong demand from Asian economies. Morgan Stanley said "an unprecedented share" of Middle East oil exports are headed to Asia.

Some analysts also said that the threat of a strike by Chevron's workers in Nigeria could lead to "considerable" shutdowns of Nigerian production. A similar strike by Exxon Mobil workers last April, which lasted a week, reduced Nigerian output by 800,000 barrels a day, or nearly a third of the country's daily exports.

A strike might delay the start of Chevron's 250,000 barrels-a-day Agbami project, the country's largest offshore venture, which is slated for June 15.

One view that has been gaining ground in recent months is that the commodity market is caught in a speculative bubble akin to the housing or technology bubble of the late 1990s. The notion is buffered by the fact the oil prices have doubled in 12 months despite a slowing economy.

That theory was raised by politicians in Washington and a slew of OPEC producers, who blame speculators for the staggering rally in oil prices. Speaking before Congress recently, George Soros, a prominent hedge fund investor, said the current oil markets presented some characteristics of a bubble.

"I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance, which led to the stock market crash of 1987," Soros said earlier this week. But he cautioned that an oil market crash was not imminent. "The danger currently comes from the other direction. The rise in oil prices aggravates the prospects for a recession."

Jeffrey Harris, the chief economist at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who was speaking before another Senate committee last month, said he saw no evidence of a speculative bubble in the commodity market. Instead, Harris pointed out to a confluence of trends that have contributed to the oil price rally, including a weak dollar, strong energy demand from emerging-market economies, and political tensions in oil-producing countries.

<continued>

"Simply put, the economic data shows that overall commodity price levels, including agricultural commodity and energy futures prices, are being driven by powerful fundamental economic forces and the laws of supply and demand," Harris said. "Together these fundamental economic factors have formed a 'perfect storm' that is causing significant upward pressures on futures prices across the board."

Oil prices had been weakening in recent days but reversed dramatically after the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, suggested on Thursday that the bank might raise interest rates. That pushed up the euro against the dollar and prompted investors to buy into commodities to hedge against the weaker American currency.

Gasoline prices have also been rising steadily. American drivers are now paying an average of $3.99 for a gallon of gasoline nationwide, according to AAA, the automobile group. In many parts of the country, like California, Connecticut and New York, consumers are already paying well over $4. Diesel costs $4.76 a gallon on average.

"I don't know how else to say it, this is not a bubble," Jan Stuart, global oil economist at UBS, said. "I think this is real. There is a whole bunch of commercial buyers out there who are spooked and are buying. You are an airline, right now, you're scared. But I don't see who would buy at these prices unless they need to."

 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Yeah, I was just having fun with your post...

in other related news:

Oil prices take biggest jump in history

http://www.iht.com/articles/20.../06/business/06oil.php

Oil prices had their biggest gains ever on Friday, jumping nearly $11 to a new record above $138 a barrel, after a senior Israeli politician raised the specter of an attack on Iran and the dollar fell sharply against the euro.

The unprecedented gains on Friday capped a second day of strong gains on energy markets, and fueled suspicions that commodities might be caught in a speculative bubble.

Oil futures surged $10.75, or 8 percent, to $138.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The record gain followed a jump of 5.5 percent on Thursday, bringing total two-day gains to $16 a barrel.

Stocks fell sharply. The Dow Jones industrials fell 394.64 points, or 3.1 percent, to close at 12,209.81. The S&P 500 Index plunged 43.37, or 3.1 percent, to 1,360.68, and the Nasdaq composite index sank 75.38 to 2,474.56. Chevron Corp. was the only stock that rose on the blue-chip index.

"This market is going to shoot itself in the foot," said Adam Robinson, an analyst at Lehman Brothers. "It is searching for a price that will build a safety cushion in the system ? either as inventories or as spare capacity. But this takes time. The market has gotten extremely impatient and is not willing to wait."


Oil prices take biggest jump in historyDow Jones industrial average plunges nearly 400 pointsU.S. loses 49,000 jobs in 5th monthly drop
Even as uncertainties abound about the fundamentals of the market, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East regained center stage after Israel's transportation minister, Shaul Mofaz, said Friday that an attack on Iran's nuclear sites looked "unavoidable." Iran is the second-largest oil producer within the OPEC cartel and any interruptions in its exports could push prices higher levels.

"The return of the Iranian risk premium calls for a careful assessment of the potential oil supply impact of military strikes on Iran," said Antoine Halff, an analyst at Newedge, an energy broker.

The strong volatility in energy markets in recent weeks have continued to puzzle investors and traders. Prices keep rising despite a lack of shortages in the market, and strong evidence of lower consumption in industrialized countries. But investors seem to be caught in a bullish mood, focusing instead on perceived risks to future oil supplies and continued growth in oil demand from emerging economies that subsidize fuels.

The latest jump in oil prices also came as the dollar lost almost 1 percent against the euro amid bleak economic news that fanned recession fears on Friday. The unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent last month, the government said, the biggest increase in more than two decades.

Investors reacted to the latest forecast by a large Wall Street bank that oil prices would spike to $150 a barrel in the next month because of strong demand from Asian economies. Morgan Stanley said "an unprecedented share" of Middle East oil exports are headed to Asia.

Some analysts also said that the threat of a strike by Chevron's workers in Nigeria could lead to "considerable" shutdowns of Nigerian production. A similar strike by Exxon Mobil workers last April, which lasted a week, reduced Nigerian output by 800,000 barrels a day, or nearly a third of the country's daily exports.

A strike might delay the start of Chevron's 250,000 barrels-a-day Agbami project, the country's largest offshore venture, which is slated for June 15.

One view that has been gaining ground in recent months is that the commodity market is caught in a speculative bubble akin to the housing or technology bubble of the late 1990s. The notion is buffered by the fact the oil prices have doubled in 12 months despite a slowing economy.

That theory was raised by politicians in Washington and a slew of OPEC producers, who blame speculators for the staggering rally in oil prices. Speaking before Congress recently, George Soros, a prominent hedge fund investor, said the current oil markets presented some characteristics of a bubble.

"I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance, which led to the stock market crash of 1987," Soros said earlier this week. But he cautioned that an oil market crash was not imminent. "The danger currently comes from the other direction. The rise in oil prices aggravates the prospects for a recession."

Jeffrey Harris, the chief economist at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, who was speaking before another Senate committee last month, said he saw no evidence of a speculative bubble in the commodity market. Instead, Harris pointed out to a confluence of trends that have contributed to the oil price rally, including a weak dollar, strong energy demand from emerging-market economies, and political tensions in oil-producing countries.

<continued>

"Simply put, the economic data shows that overall commodity price levels, including agricultural commodity and energy futures prices, are being driven by powerful fundamental economic forces and the laws of supply and demand," Harris said. "Together these fundamental economic factors have formed a 'perfect storm' that is causing significant upward pressures on futures prices across the board."

Oil prices had been weakening in recent days but reversed dramatically after the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, suggested on Thursday that the bank might raise interest rates. That pushed up the euro against the dollar and prompted investors to buy into commodities to hedge against the weaker American currency.

Gasoline prices have also been rising steadily. American drivers are now paying an average of $3.99 for a gallon of gasoline nationwide, according to AAA, the automobile group. In many parts of the country, like California, Connecticut and New York, consumers are already paying well over $4. Diesel costs $4.76 a gallon on average.

"I don't know how else to say it, this is not a bubble," Jan Stuart, global oil economist at UBS, said. "I think this is real. There is a whole bunch of commercial buyers out there who are spooked and are buying. You are an airline, right now, you're scared. But I don't see who would buy at these prices unless they need to."

On the same day Obama clinches the dem nomination! he must be in the pocket of the oil companies!