NFS4
No Lifer
There's a market for both IMHO...
http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102680
MUNICH -- Transmission specialists expect demand for continuously variable transmissions to increase in the United States and Japan while dual-clutch transmission technology gains share in Europe.
"The dual-clutch transmission will put the final nail in the coffin for the CVT" in Europe, says Andrew Fulbrook, manager of European powertrain forecasts at CSM Worldwide in London.
Some are more cautious.
"The industry is at a crossroads to make long-term choices between CVT on one hand and dual clutch," says Coen van Leeuwen, head of product planning at Van Doorne Transmissie, the creator of the continuously variable transmission.
VW's demands
Volkswagen AG is driving the growth of the dual-clutch transmission.
Europe's largest automaker offers the sporty, fuel-saving system, which it calls DSG, as an option on 10 models. DSG is short for direct shift gearbox.
Eleven percent of the VW Golfs sold in western Europe are equipped with DSG, says VW Chairman Bernd Pischetsrieder. The DSG versions of the Golf cost $1,695 to $2,050 more than comparable Golf models without the feature.
Fulbrook says other carmakers are trying to catch up with VW on dual-clutch transmissions.
"VW started and now everyone is following, everyone is doing it," he says. "They might not all go into production, but they are all doing it."
Asian flavor
Fulbrook thinks the CVT will disappear in Europe from all but the Japanese brands because of cost.
A CVT is essentially an automatic transmission that uses a belt or chain to connect two pulleys that slide on shafts and vary the gear ratio based on engine speed.
Generally, a CVT offers fuel economy equal to a manual transmission because it keeps engine speed at its most efficient point regardless of the vehicle's speed.
But CVTs have disadvantages. They include the cost of the belt or the chain; the durability of the belt in high-torque engines; the need for an assembly line to build them; and an odd size compared with other transmissions.
Optional automatic
A dual-clutch transmission is a manual transmission with the option to drive in automatic mode. Some consider it part of the automated manual transmission family because it allows drivers to either set the transmission as an automatic requiring no manual shifting or lets drivers manually shift without depressing a clutch pedal.
European automakers such as Fiat and Ford, two CVT pioneers in Europe, already have shifted to automated manual transmissions for their small-segment cars because automated manual transmissions are smaller, lighter and cheaper to produce than CVTs.
A disadvantage of dual-clutch transmissions is that, because of low volume, it costs more to make than most manual transmissions. But it still costs about $540 less to produce than a CVT with a chain, CSM estimates.
Low volume, high cost
Already, fewer CVTs are built than conventional automatic or manual transmissions, so CVT makers have fewer economies of scale.
Fulbrook says that problem will get worse in the next six years resulting in an estimated per-unit cost to make a CVT of up to $1,900 by 2011.
Siegfried Goll, CEO of ZF Friedrichshafen AG, says the German supplier is counting on Japanese automakers to push CVTs.
"We have had a difficult time implementing the CVT concept in the U.S. and Europe, while in Asia, we've seen a completely different situation emerging," Goll said during an interview in November 2004.
ZF expects that just 1 percent of the cars produced in western Europe will be fitted with a CVT by 2012. That is the same level as 2002.
By comparison, ZF forecasts that production of the dual-clutch transmission will rise to 6 percent by 2012, up from 0 percent in 2002.
The supplier will show a version of its dual-clutch transmission at the Frankfurt auto show in September, a source says.
1 million vehicles
Globally, Nissan has sold more than 1 million vehicles equipped with CVTs, says Kurt von Zumwalt, director of product public relations at Nissan North America Inc. He says Nissan expects a fourfold increase in global CVT applications during the next three years.
But even Nissan is cautious about the transmission's future in Europe.
Francois Crisias, a spokesman for Nissan Europe, says the automaker won't offer the CVT as an option in Europe in the small and lower-medium segments because it doesn't think it could sell enough models with the transmission to be profitable.
In Europe, most cars in those segments have manual transmissions, which cost up to half as much to produce compared with a CVT, according to estimates from CSM.
No retooling
Fulbrook says the dual-clutch transmission provides fuel savings that are comparable to those of the CVT. Both use up to 15 percent less fuel than an automatic transmission. And the dual-clutch transmission is less expensive to make because it can be built on the same assembly line as a manual transmission. That means there is no need for retooling.
Another disadvantage of the CVT is vehicle packaging. Some CVT applications are much shorter and taller than other transmissions.
Since CVTs are rarely the only transmission offered for a vehicle, engine bays need to accommodate both types.
If automakers don't believe a CVT will sell well, it is easier and cheaper to design the engine bay without room for a CVT.
BorgWarner Inc. CEO Timothy Manganello says one of the reasons his company is growing in Europe is because of the sales of its dual-clutch modules to VW.
Overall, BorgWarner has booked sales of about $266.5 million worth of its dual-clutch modules through 2007, Manganello says. That represents about 20 percent of the sales it has booked for 2005 through 2007.
http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=102680
