Industrialized world's population to decline by 2050 // US to grow to 420 million, world to grow to 9.2 billion

CanOWorms

Lifer
Jul 3, 2001
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Industrialized world's population to decline by 2050

Wednesday, August 18, 2004 Posted: 1:47 PM EDT (1747 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Japan, Germany and many other large industrialized countries face long-term population slowdowns or declines as more young adults have fewer children or delay child-rearing, demographers say.

While the world's population is expected to increase by almost 50 percent by 2050, Japan could lose 20 percent of its population over the next half-century, according to data released Tuesday by the private Population Reference Bureau.

Russia's population is expected to decline by 17 percent, and Germany's by 9 percent.

The United States is the biggest exception among industrialized countries, with its population expected to rise by 43 percent from 293 million now to 420 million at mid-century.

While the United States, like other developed nations, has an increasing number of older residents, the U.S. population is expected to keep growing in large part because of immigration.


Some European countries have considered loosening immigration curbs as a way to help fill shortages for highly skilled workers and to build a tax base to replace dwindling funds for programs for the aged.

But the underlying reasons for the population dilemma faced by industrialized nations are mainly socio-economic, says demographer Martha Farnsworth Riche, former head of the U.S. Census Bureau.

"Modernization" -- the way today's economies are built on a more educated work force -- is causing more young adults to think twice about having large families, Riche said. They must consider direct costs, like sending a child to college, and indirect costs, such as a parent having to take time off from a career to raise a child, before starting a family.

She cited some examples:

# In Japan, more educated younger women are choosing to delay marriage or childbirth -- or to forgo them entirely -- as an expression of independence that previous generations of Japanese women didn't have.

# More people are graduating from college, and more of today's children expect to get a higher education than previous generations did. That means young families concerned about college costs may choose to have fewer kids.

The cost of raising a child may especially hinder young adults from having large families in countries facing economic hardships, such as in eastern Europe, said Carl Haub, author of the Population Reference Bureau's 2004 World Population Data Sheet, which was released Tuesday.

Haub added that in Italy, many young men live at home with parents until their late 20s because it is less acceptable to live with someone and raise a family out of wedlock. As a result, many young Italians either don't get married or may leave the country entirely, he said.

The annual study from Haub found that the world's population will increase nearly 50 percent by mid-century to almost 9.2 billion. The projection was on par with previous forecasts from the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nearly all the growth would come from developing nations, even though less developed countries generally have much higher rates of HIV and AIDS infections and infant mortality.

While the population of developed countries would rise 4 percent to over 1.2 billion, the population in developing nations would surge by 55 percent to over 8 billion. Countries in Africa and south Asia would see the largest increases.

China, currently the world's most populous nation at 1.3 billion, would see an overall 10 percent increase between now and 2050 to over 1.4 billion in 2050, but its peak population is anticipated to be reached by 2025, with a decline thereafter.

By 2050, India is expected to overtake China, rising almost 50 percent from under 1.1 billion now to 1.6 billion at mid-century. Nigeria's population is expected to nearly triple to 307 million, while Bangladesh would double to 280 million.

The trends could change further depending on how successful doctors are in treating AIDS infections and reducing infant mortality rates, and how prevalent contraceptive use and family planning become in developing nations.

The Population Reference Bureau is supported by government, foundation and other grants. Haub's projections were based on data from foreign governments, the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Here's some stats, some of which I got from other articles on the same report:

Japan -20%
Russia -17%
Germany -9%
Italy -10%
Spain -3%
Portugal -11%
Bulgaria -38%
Latvia -22%
Romania -28%

US +43%
UK +10%
France +7%
Belgium +6%
India +50%
China +10%

It's amazing that some countries are losing a significant portion of their population.
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
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Where does canada fit in, our immigration policy is similar to the US's
 
Aug 14, 2001
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Originally posted by: Stunt
Where does canada fit in, our immigration policy is similar to the US's

-100% :shocked:

;)

I'd assume that it would probably be pretty similar to the US in % increase.

Must be weird to live in Bulgaria and lose almost 40% of your population.
 

bolido2000

Diamond Member
Dec 3, 2001
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In the US prediction do they include illegal inmigrants? Most illegal mexicans have children the first thing when they get in the country.
I just hope science will be advanced enough so that Earth can support all those people. I remember reading that if China's car ownership rates reaches the level of the US there is no enough steel in this planet to support it.
 

CanOWorms

Lifer
Jul 3, 2001
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Originally posted by: Stunt
Where does canada fit in, our immigration policy is similar to the US's

I think Canada will be at +20%. Canada has a lower fertility rate (or whatever you call it) than the US, so that stunts their growth. I think the US has a domestic growth at replacement levels, so the immigration numbers don't have to make up for a declining domestic population.
 

CanOWorms

Lifer
Jul 3, 2001
12,404
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Originally posted by: bolido2000
In the US prediction do they include illegal inmigrants? Most illegal mexicans have children the first thing when they get in the country.
I just hope science will be advanced enough so that Earth can support all those people. I remember reading that if China's car ownership rates reaches the level of the US there is no enough steel in this planet to support it.

I would expect it to count illegal immigrants. If it doesn't then it's pretty useless!
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
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Originally posted by: CanOWorms
Originally posted by: Stunt
Where does canada fit in, our immigration policy is similar to the US's

I think Canada will be at +20%. Canada has a lower fertility rate (or whatever you call it) than the US, so that stunts their growth. I think the US has a domestic growth at replacement levels, so the immigration numbers don't have to make up for a declining domestic population.

i think Canoworms made a pun!...hehe

I would expect the US to have a larger domestic growth rate as the gap between rich and poor is larger and the poor are more likely to have kids. With ambition/career comes less likelyhood to have kids.

There are much more poor people per capita in the US.
I can see myself needing facts for this statement, but ah well...This doesnt only apply to US but 3rd world where growth is increasing dramatically.
 

CanOWorms

Lifer
Jul 3, 2001
12,404
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Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: CanOWorms
Originally posted by: Stunt
Where does canada fit in, our immigration policy is similar to the US's

I think Canada will be at +20%. Canada has a lower fertility rate (or whatever you call it) than the US, so that stunts their growth. I think the US has a domestic growth at replacement levels, so the immigration numbers don't have to make up for a declining domestic population.

i think Canoworms made a pun!...hehe

I would expect the US to have a larger domestic growth rate as the gap between rich and poor is larger and the poor are more likely to have kids. With ambition/career comes less likelyhood to have kids.

There are much more poor people per capita in the US.
I can see myself needing facts for this statement, but ah well...This doesnt only apply to US but 3rd world where growth is increasing dramatically.

Well, the US domestic growth is even higher than that of Mexico.
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
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including immigration or excluding. I can't see mexico bringing in a whole lot. Plus the ones who cross the border. Just analyzing population doesnt show true birth rates.
 

CanOWorms

Lifer
Jul 3, 2001
12,404
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Originally posted by: Stunt
including immigration or excluding. I can't see mexico bringing in a whole lot. Plus the ones who cross the border. Just analyzing population doesnt show true birth rates.

Excluding immigration. I think one of the factors may be that Americans earn more money and can afford more children, the poor, and maybe also culture.
 

Martin

Lifer
Jan 15, 2000
29,178
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Bulgaria at -38%, yikes. I will be a very rare sight by 2050 methinks ;)

I doubt the figure will be revised, even when the coutry grow rich. I doubt this country will ever see much immigration. The impressions I have of my vacation here is that poeple don't like foreigners much.

But who knows, 50 years is a long time...