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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
34,660
4,483
126
http://www.varlamov.me/ru/situaciya-v-krymu-chast-1


Good pictures. Things are pretty calm, Russian and Ukrainian troops chatting together, etc. Russians there are contractors, and Ukrainians are conscripts. Both understand it's a big political game going on for leverage by the elites, no one is interested in killing or dying for either Putin or the regime in Kiev. There will be a political solution, I think the regime in Kiev is coming to a realization that while they control the capital, attempts to run rough shot over the east aren't going to work. They will have to compromise. There will be a referendum, likely not outright independence, but self government and broad autonomy for the Crimea, and the Russians will go back to their bases. Unless someone does something stupid...
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
70,181
18,981
136
http://www.varlamov.me/ru/situaciya-v-krymu-chast-1


Good pictures. Things are pretty calm, Russian and Ukrainian troops chatting together, etc. Russians there are contractors, and Ukrainians are conscripts. Both understand it's a big political game going on for leverage by the elites, no one is interested in killing or dying for either Putin or the regime in Kiev. There will be a political solution, I think the regime in Kiev is coming to a realization that while they control the capital, attempts to run rough shot over the east aren't going to work. They will have to compromise. There will be a referendum, likely not outright independence, but self government and broad autonomy for the Crimea, and the Russians will go back to their bases. Unless someone does something stupid...
What makes you think the Russian soldiers there are not conscripts? A large portion of the Russian military and the Black Sea Fleet is composed of conscripts.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
34,660
4,483
126
What makes you think the Russian soldiers there are not conscripts? A large portion of the Russian military and the Black Sea Fleet is composed of conscripts.
I thought they were switching to professional military? I would hope they'd send professionals in on such a sensitive mission. Maybe they are conscripts too. In any case, they can relate to each other, and no one is interested in shooting at each other over some political BS. In fact, everyone is interested in not being the one who shoots first. Unless someone does something stupid, this should end peacefully.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
16,894
911
126
Everyone hates America and her meddling ways until someone starts bullying them. Then everyone wants America to bail them out and gets downright indignant when America isn't right there sorting it. <snip>
Yup. Look at the Philippines. They are in the progress of letting the US back into the old bases (Subic and Clark). Same for Vietnam, back to Cam Ranh Bay. Singapore, Indonesia are much more friendly toward the US now.

They all are worrying about the bullying of big china, in the South of china Sea.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,276
2,973
126
Everyone hates America and her meddling ways until someone starts bullying them. Then everyone wants America to bail them out and gets downright indignant when America isn't right there sorting it.

America does need an exit strategy though from WWII. 70 years of protecting Europe and Asia's asses is a bit excessive. It's strangling the US economy.

.
This was probably one of the most truthful posts in this whole thread......
People want the US to let them live and leave them alone but you let some bully knock at their door and they are all of a sudden PRO-US!!
 

StinkyPinky

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2002
6,513
439
126
Personally I think this is going to end badly for Putin which is fantastic. He may get Crimea to become semi-autonomous but I think the bulk of the Ukraine will come under western influence, and he's done Russia serious harm on the international stage. On top of that he's now caught between a rock and a hard place. If he pushes on and takes Crimea by force Russia will be a pariah state and they will have large economic sanctions, and if he pulls back he's going to look weak. And nothing is worse for Putin than to look weak.

Sounds all good to me. All this crap just because he backed the wrong leader.
 

StinkyPinky

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2002
6,513
439
126
This was probably one of the most truthful posts in this whole thread......
People want the US to let them live and leave them alone but you let some bully knock at their door and they are all of a sudden PRO-US!!
A bit like life really. Kids want to become independent and do stupid shit, but as soon as the shit hits the fan they expect their parents to bail them out. Human nature.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,140
13,081
136
Yup. Look at the Philippines. They are in the progress of letting the US back into the old bases (Subic and Clark). Same for Vietnam, back to Cam Ranh Bay. Singapore, Indonesia are much more friendly toward the US now.

They all are worrying about the bullying of big china, in the South of china Sea.
Sources would be nice.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
16,894
911
126
Sources would be nice.
Ask and you shall receive.

Now, the Philippines wants American forces back in Subic to counter Chinese moves off the Philippine coast. Just west of Subic, Chinese ships have fenced off the Scarborough Shoal, one of the world's richest fishing grounds, which falls within the Philippines's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324665604579078833308333984


In recent weeks, the Pentagon has intensified discussions with Thailand about creating a regional disaster-relief hub at an American-built airfield that housed B-52 bombers during the 1960s and 1970s. U.S. officials said they are also interested in more naval visits to Thai ports and joint surveillance flights to monitor trade routes and military movements.

In next-door Vietnam, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta this month became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the naval and air base at Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the war. Citing the &#8220;tremendous potential here,&#8221; Panetta enthused about the prospect of U.S. ships again becoming a common sight at the deep-water port.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-seeks-return-to-se-asian-bases/2012/06/22/gJQAKP83vV_story.html

The Singapore military has agreed in-principle to allow the U.S. Navy to deploy up to four littoral combat ships to the city-state on a rotational basis.
The announcement was made June 2 after a meeting between Singapore&#8217;s Defense Minister Ng En Hen and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a meeting of regional defense leaders here.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120602/DEFREG03/306020001/Agreement-Calls-4-U-S-Littoral-Combat-Ships-Rotate-Through-Singapore
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
34,660
4,483
126
Personally I think this is going to end badly for Putin which is fantastic. He may get Crimea to become semi-autonomous but I think the bulk of the Ukraine will come under western influence, and he's done Russia serious harm on the international stage. On top of that he's now caught between a rock and a hard place. If he pushes on and takes Crimea by force Russia will be a pariah state and they will have large economic sanctions, and if he pulls back he's going to look weak. And nothing is worse for Putin than to look weak.

Sounds all good to me. All this crap just because he backed the wrong leader.
I don't think that's his game. He wants the southeast to stay in Ukraine, but under an implicit threat of separatism as leverage that limits how far west the new Kiev regime can pull the country. The new regime in Kiev came in thinking once they overthrew Yanukovich and took over the government buildings in Kiev, they had all the cards and could run rough shot over the Russian friendly regions. They are quickly coming to a realization that that won't stand, and they will have to cut deals if they want to keep the country together. That's why the language law has been vetoed, Party of Regions representative nominated for ranking member in parliament, the new government has expressed openness to increased autonomy for the regions, etc.
The only way Putin will take Crimea by force is if Ukraine tries to kick the Russian fleet out and let NATO into Sevastopol. He has now demonstrated to the Ukrainians that he has the ability to do so, that is sufficient to deter Ukraine, it's not necessary to actually follow through with it at this point.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,876
460
126
And the sky would have fallen, right? I do love doom & gloom right wing raving expressed as fact. It's so quaint, so predictable.

Gawd. The Soviets' intent was obviously to defend their only New World Communist toehold, Cuba. They did so admirably. It's still Marxist to this day. In that, Kennedy abandoned the long held Monroe Doctrine so that the Soviets could withdraw the missiles. US missiles in Turkey, something the Soviets bargained towards, were withdrawn not long after. They got what they wanted. We got Communist Cuba.

Not to mention that the revisionist Ronnie Worship is quite touching, particularly the way you link it to a false victory over Cuba.

Why the Hell would we threaten WW3 over something that's really none of our business, anyway? If we think about it at all, our interests, other than a nice way to bash Obama, are minor compared to the Ukrainians, Russians & the EU. They're joined economically like siamese triplets. They can sort it out w/o our meddling, I think, because they've all got too much to lose.
Sad that we have Americans still gloating over the Soviets' victory over JFK half a century later. Considering what Marxism has done for Cuba, one would have to be irrationally left wing to even consider that a good thing, let alone celebrate as a Soviet victory what thinking Americans consider a pretty convincing if admittedly not total victory for JFK and therefore America.

And I am NOT bashing Obama. I consider this a very serious situation, but thoroughly different from the Cuban missile crisis. Obama's made no serious errors that I've seen, drawn no red lines for Putin to step over. This is a good thing as I do not want to see Russia and the USA blunder into World War III.

I don't think that's his game. He wants the southeast to stay in Ukraine, but under an implicit threat of separatism as leverage that limits how far west the new Kiev regime can pull the country. The new regime in Kiev came in thinking once they overthrew Yanukovich and took over the government buildings in Kiev, they had all the cards and could run rough shot over the Russian friendly regions. They are quickly coming to a realization that that won't stand, and they will have to cut deals if they want to keep the country together. That's why the language law has been vetoed, Party of Regions representative nominated for ranking member in parliament, the new government has expressed openness to increased autonomy for the regions, etc.
The only way Putin will take Crimea by force is if Ukraine tries to kick the Russian fleet out and let NATO into Sevastopol. He has now demonstrated to the Ukrainians that he has the ability to do so, that is sufficient to deter Ukraine, it's not necessary to actually follow through with it at this point.
I'd argue that the new regime in Kiev came in thinking that unless they overthrew Yanukovich, the Ukraine would be absorbed back into the new Russian empire.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,140
13,081
136
Sad that we have Americans still gloating over the Soviets' victory over JFK half a century later. Considering what Marxism has done for Cuba, one would have to be irrationally left wing to even consider that a good thing, let alone celebrate as a Soviet victory what thinking Americans consider a pretty convincing if admittedly not total victory for JFK and therefore America.

And I am NOT bashing Obama. I consider this a very serious situation, but thoroughly different from the Cuban missile crisis. Obama's made no serious errors that I've seen, drawn no red lines for Putin to step over. This is a good thing as I do not want to see Russia and the USA blunder into World War III.
I merely stated the facts to counter your usual rah-rah! pump some sunshine up the ol' skirt routine you practice so well.

First, it was a victory for Kennedy that paved the way for Ronnie's vision, or it was nothing of the kind. Can't have it both ways. If you think the Soviets' purpose wasn't defense of Cuba, which they accomplished, you're delusional. Having missiles in Cuba would have been something they'd have liked, but was entirely surrenderable in return for US non-intervention in Cuba. In a dispassionate way, I admire the way the Soviets played it, not the results of Communist Cuba, at all.

You can choose to believe & disseminate the usual propaganda if you want. That doesn't make it true. At the time, people were so relieved to pull back from the brink that they'd have accepted any rationale for doing so. Claiming victory was just the best option for Kennedy, regardless of the truth.

Yeh, the Soviets pulled out the missile installations, once they got what they really wanted in the first place. They claimed victory just like Kennedy, and were a lot more accurate when they did.

Proof? Communist Cuba is still there.

Ukraine? Like I said in my first post to this topic, Yanukovych is a really lousy politician, which is how it came to this. Putin, OTOH, is extremely savvy & rather ruthless. Let's hope that the new leadership in Kiev is equally capable & able to salvage the situation.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
14,972
2,269
126
the Russians are rolling. Putin laughs his ass off at your inept obama. This isn't over. The stench of obama fear and weakness is in the air. There will be more events like this and beyond. Elections Have Consequences.
That was great!

I almost thought you were serious until I noticed they were running "Red Dawn" followed by "Roadhouse" on TMC.

Killer stuff :thumbsup::)


Swayze fanforlife!






.
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
34,660
4,483
126
Sad that we have Americans still gloating over the Soviets' victory over JFK half a century later. Considering what Marxism has done for Cuba, one would have to be irrationally left wing to even consider that a good thing, let alone celebrate as a Soviet victory what thinking Americans consider a pretty convincing if admittedly not total victory for JFK and therefore America.

And I am NOT bashing Obama. I consider this a very serious situation, but thoroughly different from the Cuban missile crisis. Obama's made no serious errors that I've seen, drawn no red lines for Putin to step over. This is a good thing as I do not want to see Russia and the USA blunder into World War III.


I'd argue that the new regime in Kiev came in thinking that unless they overthrew Yanukovich, the Ukraine would be absorbed back into the new Russian empire.
Russia can't afford to absorb all of the Ukraine. It's a $20B/year money pit, as the West is about to find out. Putin did Ukraine a big favor, now that it's a cold war battlefront, US and EU taxpayers are going to make it rain. A lot of that money will end up in Russia to pay for gas. A lot will end up in Crimea, if they play their cards right. Their goal should be to stay non-committal and yell "show me the money" to both sides.
 
Dec 10, 2005
20,513
1,831
126
Russians there are contractors
LOL. Right. They're Russian troops not wearing insignias.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26447682
The soldier keeping us in his sights is wearing Russian army-style camouflage, but without any insignia...

Under his camouflage jacket I see a vest with blue stripes. Then I spot a tattoo on the back of his hand: "za VDV", signifying he is a "paratrooper".


"And don't come here anymore," he says finally. "After all, you and I are Russian citizens. I don't want to shoot my own people."
A Russian-plated army vehicle at Belbek airfield, in the hands of pro-Russian forces
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26415508
 
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Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,916
172
106
Well, it was inevitable, given right wing desperation. Lindsey Graham blames Obama for the Ukraine because of... Benghazi!
-snip-
Yeah, that's just full on stupid.

Fern
 

AViking

Platinum Member
Sep 12, 2013
2,264
1
0
What would you have done?

This is the result of 15 years of poor leadership in the US and a weak European Union.

Been a while since another powerful country had a leader that had the balls to stick it to the rest of the world.

What should be done about it?

Nobody did anything when the US did it. Expect the same to be true here. The real losers are going to be the Ukrainians just like the Iraqis.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,525
42
86
What would you have done?
For starters I would have sent a warship to their front door.

Russia did that to us.

Beyond that, I have not dedicated my life to the subject to know what the best approach is. But I do know for sure that against aggressors, time is not a luxury. I'm a fan of Teddy Roosevelt's big stick ideology, whereas Obama is more of a "speak loudly and carry a small stick" kind of guy.

This is the result of 15 years of poor leadership in the US and a weak European Union.

Been a while since another powerful country had a leader that had the balls to stick it to the rest of the world.

What should be done about it?

Nobody did anything when the US did it. Expect the same to be true here. The real losers are going to be the Ukrainians just like the Iraqis.
I agree with you that the Ukrainian citizens will lose.

Iraqis? I believe within 10 years from now the Iraqi citizens will be far better off than if Saddam continued his leadership over the country. Saddam did use chemical weapons, he did engage in genocide against the Kurdish people of Iraq. Let's say the jury is still out on this verdict.


Maybe if Europe believed in maintaining even a minimal military force instead of relying on the U.S. all the time, maybe they'd be able to stand up for and help fellow Europeans. Maybe. Europe might *gasp* have influence on global politics! What joy!




And to add, if Europe hadn't been so "America is a nation-invading war-monger!" over the past 10+ years, we absolutely could place a warship on Russia's front door. Russia isn't stupid enough to attack it. But no, the Ukrainian people will suffer. There is nothing we can do.
 
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Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,140
13,081
136
Who wants to bet this vote to join Russia was "coerced" by the present military forces?
http://news.yahoo.com/big-power-talks-ukraine-crisis-little-progress-003521587--business.html

I'm sorry, but this is precisely why if you want to stop something from happening, you have to act quickly, you cannot always sloth around waiting for the diplomatic solution to present itself. We have 10 days to figure it out.
The Ukrainians created a situation that Putin could exploit, and that Russian leaning Crimea could exploit, so they did. Shit happens w/ lousy govt & inept politicians.

Reminds me of the ongoing expropriation of Palestinian territory by Israel, w/o the crowd 'em all into a ghetto effect. Oh, wait, that's *different* somehow.

I doubt that the govt of Crimea will be deporting or dispossessing their Ukrainian minority any time RSN, anyway.
 

lozina

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
11,710
5
0
Who wants to bet this vote to join Russia was "coerced" by the present military forces?
http://news.yahoo.com/big-power-talks-ukraine-crisis-little-progress-003521587--business.html
Coerced? God it is amazing how much bias there is in this conflict.

What do you expect to happen? The region is full of Russians. Why would they have to be coerced to side with Russia? It should be a no-shit-Sherlock moment when they decided to vote to join Russia.

Just like it was a no-shit-Shirlock moment when the anti-Russian 'protesters' in Kiev forced a legitimate, elected government out and then replaced them with anti-Russian, non-elected leaders who are now doing everything they can to sabotage the country's relations with Russia and try making Russia look bad.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,140
13,081
136
For starters I would have sent a warship to their front door.

Russia did that to us.

Beyond that, I have not dedicated my life to the subject to know what the best approach is. But I do know for sure that against aggressors, time is not a luxury. I'm a fan of Teddy Roosevelt's big stick ideology, whereas Obama is more of a "speak loudly and carry a small stick" kind of guy.



I agree with you that the Ukrainian citizens will lose.

Iraqis? I believe within 10 years from now the Iraqi citizens will be far better off than if Saddam continued his leadership over the country. Saddam did use chemical weapons, he did engage in genocide against the Kurdish people of Iraq. Let's say the jury is still out on this verdict.


Maybe if Europe believed in maintaining even a minimal military force instead of relying on the U.S. all the time, maybe they'd be able to stand up for and help fellow Europeans. Maybe. Europe might *gasp* have influence on global politics! What joy!




And to add, if Europe hadn't been so "America is a nation-invading war-monger!" over the past 10+ years, we absolutely could place a warship on Russia's front door. Russia isn't stupid enough to attack it. But no, the Ukrainian people will suffer. There is nothing we can do.
Remarkable that you'd bring up TR in this context. Another one of his famous statements is "I took the isthmus" meaning Panama, from the Colombians, set up a puppet govt to serve US purposes at the time. There was nobody to stop him from exercising Power under the Monroe Doctrine, and the Colombians had been just as stupid as the Ukrainians today.

It seems likely that Crimea will rejoin Russia voluntarily by plebiscite, so everybody might as well get used to it. Once Russian citizens, they became Ukrainian citizens and then back to being Russian all over again.

Yeh, and I'm sure that all of this could have been avoided with a Real Man in the Oval Office, one stupid enough to think that dick-waving would intimidate Putin in his own back yard.

Not likely.
 

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