In the last four days they've changed the forecast four times!
- Thread starter brigden
- Start date
Our monsoons finally stopped last Monday. Until Tuesday the preceding eight friggin' days were either torrential downpours or spotty showers throughout the day. I stopped believing anything I saw on weather.com because it was constantly wrong.
Krazy4Real
Lifer
- Oct 3, 2003
- 12,221
- 55
- 91
I think that the old-time weather forecasters were more accurate than today's sorry ass meteorologists.
Back then, they looked at the conditions, then the history, and figured out the precip percentage based on how many times it had ever rained before, when conditions were the same.
Now they try to predict things in real time, and it's amazing how much they are wrong.
Back then, they looked at the conditions, then the history, and figured out the precip percentage based on how many times it had ever rained before, when conditions were the same.
Now they try to predict things in real time, and it's amazing how much they are wrong.
:beer: Man, I have been saying this for years. What other job can you be consistently wrong ALL the time and bring home an above average salary.
duh.
Hello, people? Sure, experience can play a big role, but you do realize that it is computer models that come up with all the info, right?
They're free to modify it as they see fit, especially depending on the area. For example, many computer models don't take into acount the Columbia River Gorge and the effects it can have on some parts of the Portland metro area.
But still.
If you actually watch, you'll notice that the 7-day forecast often changes every newscast. It just means that the weather is very unstable or simply unpredictable at the moment.
- Dec 22, 2002
- 8,702
- 2
- 81
Too true.
To quote Lewis Black:
"What does meteorologist mean in English? It means liar. What's the best job you can have in the world? It's being the weatherperson in San Diego, California. Doesn't get any better than that; you're on TV for less than a minute. They go - you get a six figure income - 'What's the weather going to be like, Lew?' 'Nice. Back to you.'"
Less than they are now.....then again, they never make a prediction and stick to it these days. They change the 5 or 7 day forecast thoughout the day now.
Back in the day, and I mean 15 or so years ago, before all the Doppler/computer/satellite equipment, when your weatherman made a prediction, he generally stuck with it thoughout the day.
When he said there was a 60% chance of rain today, he meant that in the past, 60% of the times that the conditions (humidity,temp,baro,etc) were like today's are, it rained.
Today, they try and pull a percentage out of the air about whether the storm that's on radar 100 miles away is going to come here or not.....and they get burned all the time.
It's almost like they have too much information now, and really don't know how to assemble it into an accurate forecast.
But now they just change the forecast from hour to hour and won't really hang their proverbial hat on any one model.
Today's weathermen are almost as bad as politicians.
Sure, like it always is. That didn't stop the weathermen 15-20 years ago from making a forecast and sticking to it, either.
Changing the forecast from hour to hour isn't being a weatherman. I can look at the online radar and decide if a band of showers is going to hit me or not.
What I want to know at 8 a.m. is what chance today is there of those afternoon showers developing?
I want a damn accurate forecast, not an interpretation of what all the dopplers are showing. All they do these days is explain how complex the weather is, and how they really can't say what's going to happen, it depends on this or that, blah, blah, blah.
WTF are they getting the big bucks for? Look at the info, and MAKE A DAMN PREDICTION.
Umm...ever wonder why you never see forecasts later than a week? Yeah, that's because they barely have an idea what the weather is going to be like tomorrow and the day after. That is why the 7-day forecasts are so spotty. Ever hear of the cahos effect? If a butterfly sneezes in China, it's going to rain in New York. The weather is dependant on so many different factors, even the worlds fastest supercomputers can't predict the weather more than a few days in advance. I give them credit for what they have accomplished. They're much better at predicting where tornadoes and hurricanes will hit than before. But day to day stuff? It changes too rapidly to accurately predict.
Oh, so that's what that big bank of computers is for that I always see them working on in promo shots, etc! Of course I know that MacBaine. I think you missed my point they have a job that allows them to be wrong all of the time and make a good salary. We can't get away with that at our jobs but they can is what I was sarcastically pointing out regardless of their data capturing methods.
Links to models
link to computer models
Storm Prediction Center
its amazing how right this is in predicting severe weather.
link to computer models
Storm Prediction Center
its amazing how right this is in predicting severe weather.
Fingolfin269
Lifer
- Feb 28, 2003
- 17,948
- 34
- 91
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