In the history of the NCAA tournament has anyone ever...............

[Jhill]

Filled out a bracket and got every game right? I know it's a long shot but it's probaby easier than the mathmaticans make it out to be. They figure 50/50 chance for every game and say the odds are 1 in every 454534634643683460 that someone will do it. But there are a lot of gimmies like the 1vs16 seeds. Don't get me wrong I realize it's still very,very,very hard.


Has anyone ever done it?

 

[brxndxn]

ya.. people have done it..

One kid in my 5th grade class came within 2 games of picking it.. he picked the up to the last 8 correctly and screwed up on one of the teams that ended up winning or something. I remember cause' I came in 2nd behind him.. and I just went with the the given odds the whole way.

 

[milagro]

whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

 

[Hector13]

Just using some ghetto math in excel, assuming your odds of picing each game right is 60%, the odds of getting the whole bracket right is 1 in 438,548,343,261,854 (or so). The odds improve a lot with just marginal increases in your probability of getting each game right, though.

Here are the odds at a few other points:

70%: 1 in 16,731,287,390
75%: 1 in 176,180,004
80%: 1 in 2,489,206
85%: 1 in 45,536
90%: 1 in 1,047

 

[NeoV]

I have never heard of anyone picking them all

 

[Dufman]

Originally posted by: Hector13
Just using some ghetto math in excel, assuming your odds of picing each game right is 60%, the odds of getting the whole bracket right is 1 in 438,548,343,261,854 (or so). The odds improve a lot with just marginal increases in your probability of getting each game right, though.

Here are the odds at a few other points:

70%: 1 in 16,731,287,390
75%: 1 in 176,180,004
80%: 1 in 2,489,206
85%: 1 in 45,536
90%: 1 in 1,047

How can the odds be 60% that you will get it right. I would assume that the probability is 50% for all games, that would make the odds much worse.

 

[Hector13]

Sorry.. I screwed up those odds, they should be:

50%: 1 in 18,446,744,073,709,600,000
60%: 1 in 157,877,403,574,267
70%: 1 in 8,198,330,821
75%: 1 in 99,101,252
80%: 1 in 1,593,092
85%: 1 in 32,899
90%: 1 in 848

 

[Hector13]

Originally posted by: Dufman

Originally posted by: Hector13
Just using some ghetto math in excel, assuming your odds of picing each game right is 60%, the odds of getting the whole bracket right is 1 in 438,548,343,261,854 (or so). The odds improve a lot with just marginal increases in your probability of getting each game right, though.

Here are the odds at a few other points:

70%: 1 in 16,731,287,390
75%: 1 in 176,180,004
80%: 1 in 2,489,206
85%: 1 in 45,536
90%: 1 in 1,047

How can the odds be 60% that you will get it right. I would assume that the probability is 50% for all games, that would make the odds much worse.

Well as mentioned before, there is no way that the 1 vs. 16 game is 50/50%. You would figure that "experts" are probably correct more than 50% of the time for these games (seeing how you are betting without worrying about a spread). In reality, it probably makes more sense to assume a different percentage for each round (or for even each seeing matchup), but I am too lazy to bother.

 

[Hector13]

Okay, assuming that you can get 90% of the first round right (this is probably a bit high), 75% of the next round, then 60% of the third round (the sweet 16), and 50% of the remaining rounds, the odds are 1 in 25 million or so. I guess it is not impossible, given that people have been doing this for years, and that there is nothing stopping someone from betting on multiple brackets.

 

[emmpee]

A couple years ago, ESPN offered some exorbitant amount of cash to anyone that picked all the games. Might've been like $10mil or something. (Nobody got it, of course)

 

[nitsuj3580]

Originally posted by: milagro
whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

I'm thinking it's the '85 Villanova team or possibly the Danny Manning Kansas team in '88 but i'm pretty sure it's Villanova

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: Hector13
Okay, assuming that you can get 90% of the first round right (this is probably a bit high), 75% of the next round, then 60% of the third round (the sweet 16), and 50% of the remaining rounds, the odds are 1 in 25 million or so. I guess it is not impossible, given that people have been doing this for years, and that there is nothing stopping someone from betting on multiple brackets.

Heh... if you get 90% of the first round right, your odds of getting the whole bracket right are pretty low.

But I know what you're trying to say. I've never heard of anyone getting all of them right, but the guy who won the contest on ESPN last year went to my college.

 

[milagro]

Originally posted by: nitsuj3580

Originally posted by: milagro
whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

I'm thinking it's the '85 Villanova team or possibly the Danny Manning Kansas team in '88 but i'm pretty sure it's Villanova

I'm almost positive it was Villanova also..but can't remember what seed they were...does anyone know?...guess I'll get to googlin..

 

[burnedout]

Originally posted by: milagro
whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

Either NC State or Villanova. I can't remember but I think it was NC State under Jim Valvano.

 

[milagro]

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: milagro
whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

Either NC State or Villanova. I can't remember but I think it was NC State under Jim Valvano.

against Houston? I could be wrong but I don't think so...wasn't NC State a 4 seed that year?

 

[burnedout]

Originally posted by: milagro

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: milagro
whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

Either NC State or Villanova. I can't remember but I think it was NC State under Jim Valvano.

against Houston? I could be wrong but I don't think so...wasn't NC State a 4 seed that year?

You are right. Villanova won it as a 9 seed with Ed Pinkney, I think. NC State was a 4 seed.

 

[milagro]

Never mind..found it...it was Villanova in 85...they were a number 8 seed.

 

[Excelsior]

Originally posted by: milagro

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: milagro
whats the lowest seed to have ever won?

Either NC State or Villanova. I can't remember but I think it was NC State under Jim Valvano.

against Houston? I could be wrong but I don't think so...wasn't NC State a 4 seed that year?

NC state was a 6 seed, Villanova an 8th.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: Hector13
Just using some ghetto math in excel, assuming your odds of picing each game right is 60%, the odds of getting the whole bracket right is 1 in 438,548,343,261,854 (or so). The odds improve a lot with just marginal increases in your probability of getting each game right, though.

Here are the odds at a few other points:

70%: 1 in 16,731,287,390
75%: 1 in 176,180,004
80%: 1 in 2,489,206
85%: 1 in 45,536
90%: 1 in 1,047

If the odds for each game are 60%:
there are 32+16+8+4+2+1 games = 63 games in the tournament.
1/(.60)^63 =(approx) 1 in 95,000,000,000,000
90% --> probability is .90^63 = .0013 or, approximately 1 in 763.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: Hector13
Sorry.. I screwed up those odds, they should be:

50%: 1 in 18,446,744,073,709,600,000
60%: 1 in 157,877,403,574,267
70%: 1 in 8,198,330,821
75%: 1 in 99,101,252
80%: 1 in 1,593,092
85%: 1 in 32,899
90%: 1 in 848

I thought there were 63 games, not 64 games. Oh wait, I forgot about the play-in game. Then again, I don't know of any pools that include that game. And, that game is to get into the 64 team field. Not really a part of the tournament.

(edit: I worked his 90% stat backwards... .9^n = 1/848 gave n = 63.998)

 

[shenaniganz]

I plan on getting them all right this year.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: shenaniganz
I plan on getting them all right this year.

Don't try and copy off of me!

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: emmpee
A couple years ago, ESPN offered some exorbitant amount of cash to anyone that picked all the games. Might've been like $10mil or something. (Nobody got it, of course)

You're high, drunk, stupid, or all of the above. ESPN crowns perfect bracket winners every year, because typically there are a few of them. That is why they have a tie-breaker of the final score of the game in most cases. The guy last year who did it won 10k not 10 million.

 

[BigSmooth]

Originally posted by: Mill

Originally posted by: emmpee
A couple years ago, ESPN offered some exorbitant amount of cash to anyone that picked all the games. Might've been like $10mil or something. (Nobody got it, of course)

You're high, drunk, stupid, or all of the above. ESPN crowns perfect bracket winners every year, because typically there are a few of them. That is why they have a tie-breaker of the final score of the game in most cases. The guy last year who did it won 10k not 10 million.

You sure about that? According to this article, the $10K winner in 2002 (out of a million contestants) only picked 50 out of the 63 games correctly.

Oh, and you have to have a final score tiebreaker even if people don't have perfect brackets. Two people could end up tied in points no matter how few they score.

 

[jagr10]

Some of the matchups are easy, but there are a heckuvalot that are difficult to choose.