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In states (all have Repub governors) that cut off $300 extended unemployment benefits, job vacancies are still not being filled

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Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
17,955
3,012
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the share of adults receiving unemployment benefits fell sharply (by 2.2 percentage points) in the dozen states that cut federal funding on June 12 or 19, according to Dube. That translates to a 60% reduction in unemployment rolls in those states, he said.

That's verbatim from the article and seems to indicate the exact opposite of the headline.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,676
25,740
136
the share of adults receiving unemployment benefits fell sharply (by 2.2 percentage points) in the dozen states that cut federal funding on June 12 or 19, according to Dube. That translates to a 60% reduction in unemployment rolls in those states, he said.

That's verbatim from the article and seems to indicate the exact opposite of the headline.
You should have kept reading. The very next paragraph:

But there wasn’t a corresponding increase in employment among this group — in fact, the share of adults with a job fell by 1.4 percentage points over the same period, according to Dube. (Employment rose by 0.2 percentage points in states that didn’t end the pandemic benefits.)
So basically a bunch of governors screwed their own constituents for no gain.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
17,955
3,012
126
You should have kept reading. The very next paragraph:


So basically a bunch of governors screwed their own constituents for no gain.
I did read that. The number of people collecting unemployment dropped 60% and the number of people with jobs went down 1.4%.
Doesn't that indicate a lot of people gave up their unemployment benefits without finding work? I don't understand the correlations being derived from the information. Help me out here.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,482
4,507
136
Side note—my wife just turned down a job offer for nearly double her salary because we didn’t want to move cross country. This was for a job she didn’t even apply for. The labor shortage isn’t just impacting minimum wage and service jobs—it’s across the board. My guess is that a whole lot of women (and some men) left the workforce due to pandemic childcare concerns…and some of them aren’t coming back any time soon. We were down to one salary at one point during the pandemic and still living comfortably. I assume others in that situation have more flexibility about whether or not to go back to work.
Yeah, my mom is an HR director at a medium sized engineering firm. Said that they are having to offer more than what they pay current employees, still can't get people to accept offers. And then to top it off, 3 people that had accepted changed their mind last week. She wants to retire this year anyways and she was saying this might be the push she needs.

I work for a major engineering company and we are losing people too. Some job recs are offering $10k referral bonuses too. A lot of people have also told the company in no uncertain terms that they will not be returning to the office.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
10,482
4,507
136
I did read that. The number of people collecting unemployment dropped 60% and the number of people with jobs went down 1.4%.
Doesn't that indicate a lot of people gave up their unemployment benefits without finding work? I don't understand the correlations being derived from the information. Help me out here.
They stopped collecting because the benefit was ended, not because they got a job.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,676
25,740
136
I did read that. The number of people collecting unemployment dropped 60% and the number of people with jobs went down 1.4%.
Doesn't that indicate a lot of people gave up their unemployment benefits without finding work? I don't understand the correlations being derived from the information. Help me out here.
Federal COVID UI benefits were not just additional dollars, but additional length of time. So most likely these people were kicked off because their state benefit time was exceeded but not their federal benefit time.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
17,955
3,012
126
Federal COVID UI benefits were not just additional dollars, but additional length of time. So most likely these people were kicked off because their state benefit time was exceeded but not their federal benefit time.
Seems like information that should have been included in the study. It also seems more than passing strange that all those people lost their benefits and aren't looking for work. That's an odd disconnect.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
73,676
25,740
136
Seems like information that should have been included in the study. It also seems more than passing strange that all those people lost their benefits and aren't looking for work. That's an odd disconnect.
I imagine it was included in the study but yes, probably would have been useful information in the article.

The idea that cutting off benefits would force people to work who would otherwise wait for a better job is the theory of action Republican governors used to purposefully immiserate their own constituents, but it appears to have been wrong. The real question now is how to hold these governors accountable for their malign incompetence.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
29,525
14,082
136
Seems like information that should have been included in the study. It also seems more than passing strange that all those people lost their benefits and aren't looking for work. That's an odd disconnect.
There is a lesson here. You can't (and shouldn't) legislate with the intent to get people to live the way you *think* they should be living. Legislation should be confined to protecting and serving people.
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
23,340
5,911
136
Grocery/convenience stores in my area are now offering $500 signing bonuses for minimum wage jobs. I’m not just talking fancy stores like Whole Foods and Wegmans. I’m talking about Circle K too.
 

NWRMidnight

Golden Member
Jun 18, 2001
1,701
1,276
136
I did read that. The number of people collecting unemployment dropped 60% and the number of people with jobs went down 1.4%.
Doesn't that indicate a lot of people gave up their unemployment benefits without finding work? I don't understand the correlations being derived from the information. Help me out here.
You are reading that wrong, or I should say interpretation it wrong.

"in fact, the share of adults with a job fell by 1.4 percentage points over the same period, according to Dube. (Employment rose by 0.2 percentage points in states that didn’t end the pandemic benefits.) ".

Read that again.

It didn't say unemployment fell, it said the # of adults with jobs fell, meaning that 1.4% LESS adults are working. (If people going off unemployment where taking jobs, the number of adults working would be increasing, not falling). Notice they said adults, I am guessing, it most likely meaning that jobs where being filled by under 18 teenagers taking summer jobs, which means unemployment may have went down, but the jobs are being filled by temporary workers who are not supporting families and will be going back to school at the end of the summer, or students working after school and weekends. They then go to say that EMPLOYMENT (not unemployment) rose by 0.2 percent in states that didn't end the pandemic benefits. Now, to be fair, they are using two different metrics, one is adults working, one is employment in that sentence, so it really isn't an apples to apples comparison between the two. Either way, the take away here, is cutting the benefits really had little effect on Unemployment for the working adults.
 
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dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
29,525
14,082
136
Grocery/convenience stores in my area are now offering $500 signing bonuses for minimum wage jobs. I’m not just talking fancy stores like Whole Foods and Wegmans. I’m talking about Circle K too.
I bet those come with strings like you need to pay it back if you are fired or quit within x months.
 
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NWRMidnight

Golden Member
Jun 18, 2001
1,701
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I bet those come with strings like you need to pay it back if you are fired or quit within x months.
It's only a carrot for people who fail in math. $500 bonus is equivalent to $3 more an hour for 1 month (based on a 40 hour week). Which is equivalent to paying them $10.25 an hour for 1 month before going back to the $7.25 an hour wage, which is just a smoke cloud of manipulation that will put those workers right back to working for slave wages just as before the pandemic.

edit: spelling and missed word.
 
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ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,362
999
106
It’s going to shock you guys but it looks like our resident economic genius was wrong again.

I think it is still too soon to say. Dont forget that in addition to the increased unemployment benefits, we also received a total of 2,000 dollars in stimulus money recently, (which for a couple or 2 people living together would be 4,000) so I expect there will be a lag period before the money from that runs out. There is also a tax credit just going into effect for families with children.

Edit: there also has been a moratorium on student loan payments and foreclosures/evictions which are also coming to an end. On a more personal note, my daughter and grandson both worked server jobs at one time. They both say they would never go back to it. Both have good full time jobs now, so I dont know if the chips were down whether they really would still refuse to go back to a server type job.

I think it will be another six months to a year before we can really tell if the job market has fundamentally changed.
 
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shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,281
13,090
126
they should give you a small bonus if you find a job. but you dont want people just getting jobs and quitting for the bonus. so you'd have to dole out the payments as they're working. Maybe per hour?

yeah that could work. Have the government supplement people's income so they end up making 15 dollars per hour no matter what.

That sounds like a great plan to get people back at work AND stimulate the economy.
Maybe the republicans should spearhead the Economic Stimulus?
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
10,394
3,395
136
Federal COVID UI benefits were not just additional dollars, but additional length of time. So most likely these people were kicked off because their state benefit time was exceeded but not their federal benefit time.
Below the U.S. graphic, it noted these were included in the "all Fed. UI benefits" that some states were cutting off...

Note: "All benefits" include: Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation ($300 supplement); Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (for the self-employed, gig workers, and others); Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (for the long-term unemployed). AK, AZ, FL, and OH ended only the $300 weekly payment early. Source: State announcements and websites

So there's that....
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,778
4,752
136
they should give you a small bonus if you find a job. but you dont want people just getting jobs and quitting for the bonus. so you'd have to dole out the payments as they're working. Maybe per hour?

yeah that could work. Have the government supplement people's income so they end up making 15 dollars per hour no matter what.

That sounds like a great plan to get people back at work AND stimulate the economy.
Maybe the republicans should spearhead the Economic Stimulus?
So if the government stimulates the worker pay, what incentive do the employers have to pay higher?

Pay $1, government makes up the remaining $14?


Also plenty of employers do have sign-on bonus'. I've had plenty in life. Most of them work off of something like... work here for 1 year and you have 50% of it vested. Work here 2 years and it's 100% vested. If you quit without any vested, it will come out of your final paycheck.
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
22,082
3,645
136
It’s going to shock you guys but it looks like our resident economic genius was wrong again.

Yep, all these asshole governors did was put more hurt on their residents. I hope those affected, state's citizens, remember how much their leaders cared for them when it's time for reelection.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
12,709
9,536
136
Yep, all these asshole governors did was put more hurt on their residents. I hope those affected, state's citizens, remember how much their leaders cared for them when it's time for reelection.
Most Republican voters are too dumb to recognize shit. Hate the browns, the gays, the feminazis, the blm, fake antifa. I mean clearly all those entities are running the country and all its economic engines, and the big healthcare companies fucking us, and the big companies paying people shit.

My pet rock has more critical thinking ability than these stones. I'm about to walk my dog before bed for his final bathroom break. If he makes a doodie, it will have a higher average IQ than your average Trumphumpie.
 

nOOky

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2004
2,147
1,011
136
My company took 30 engineers and moved them out into the plant to help fill orders since they can't hire anyone. They simply refuse to raise the base production wage to attract new workers, as they will then be stuck paying out when the inevitable slow down occurs. Everyone here is hiring, but they are hiring workers, not engineers or positions that require a degree. It's crazy.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
21,143
894
126
Grocery/convenience stores in my area are now offering $500 signing bonuses for minimum wage jobs. I’m not just talking fancy stores like Whole Foods and Wegmans. I’m talking about Circle K too.
Yeah same here in PHX
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
28,650
4,384
126
Yeah same here in PHX
i heard a radio ad with up to $20k bonuses for CDL drivers :O
apparently being a truck driver is a shitty job though - absolutely horrendous turnover. but goddamn, $20k signing bonus is crazy (assuming you don't have to be an owner/operator)
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
37,801
12,529
136
Food outlets next to one of our stores are offering $1500 sign up bonuses and $500 referral bonuses. We're not doing that, we raised our wages and tacked on benefits. Result is we're staffed and they aren't
 

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