"In 2020 you will fight to keep your job" -Forbes Mag

[Infohawk]

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/08/unemployment-google-2020-technology-data-companies-10-economy.html

Alright, so this subtitle is pretty sensationalistic, but it seems to me that the main arguments ring true no matter who is in power. Technology and continued outsourcing is going to cut jobs from the bottom up.

Also, in the long-term with continued technological advancement, I just don't see how most people will be needed for employment.

What do you think?

 

[Patranus]

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/08/unemployment-google-2020-technology-data-companies-10-economy.html

Alright, so this subtitle is pretty sensationalistic, but it seems to me that the main arguments ring true no matter who is in power. Technology and continued outsourcing is going to cut jobs from the bottom up.

Also, in the long-term with continued technological advancement, I just don't see how most people will be needed for employment.

What do you think?

If the cost of technology is higher than the cost of labor, jobs won't be eliminated.

The government of the USA however, has ensured that technology will take over.

Hell, FDR started this during the great depression.
Originally people were paid to operate elevators. After FDR passed minimum wage, it became more cost effective to install automatic elevators. The people who had jobs that were eliminated were more than willing to do the job at their original rate but the federal government wouldn't let them.

Sure, some technology will replace jobs (like the telephone exchange) but there is no reason why a lot of other jobs need to be eliminated or move over seas.

Thank you federal government.

 

[child of wonder]

That's the price of technological progress -- the elimination of menial tasks once done by humans.

This means we need to continually invest in training our workforce to ensure we don't become a 3rd world country of a 1% wealthy ruling class with 99% of the rest of the population being low class or poor.

 

[cubeless]

wtf do you mean 2020??? this is happening right now... the man is trying as hard as he can to find some cheaper alternative to paying me what i cost... it ain't the future, it's now...

 

[Infohawk]

That's the price of technological progress -- the elimination of menial tasks once done by humans.

This means we need to continually invest in training our workforce to ensure we don't become a 3rd world country of a 1% wealthy ruling class with 99% of the rest of the population being low class or poor.

Are you suggesting though that with enough training we could keep everyone employed at higher levels? I don't think that there's an unending demand for skilled labor. I think a huge proportion of the population isn't even capable of being skilled.

Furthermore, even skilled jobs are starting to be automated and outsourced.

 

[Special K]

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/08/unemployment-google-2020-technology-data-companies-10-economy.html

Alright, so this subtitle is pretty sensationalistic, but it seems to me that the main arguments ring true no matter who is in power. Technology and continued outsourcing is going to cut jobs from the bottom up.

Also, in the long-term with continued technological advancement, I just don't see how most people will be needed for employment.

What do you think?

We've had this discussion in P&N before, and people always say that the main product of the US is now IP/ideas as opposed to manufactured goods. While I don't disagree with that, the fact of the matter is that not everyone is capable of becoming a researcher/designer/innovator. Before the huge push toward globalization started, we had a large manufacturing base to provide jobs for this group. What new field will spring up to replace those jobs?

Additionally, is it inevitable that the average unemployment rate will rise long-term as we become more efficient? Is the end result of progress a world in which no one has to work because everything can be efficiently provided for everyone? I realize that such an end scenario would be very far into the future, but as efficiency improves it is something I think about.

 

[child of wonder]

Are you suggesting though that with enough training we could keep everyone employed at higher levels? I don't think that there's an unending demand for skilled labor. I think a huge proportion of the population isn't even capable of being skilled.

Furthermore, even skilled jobs are starting to be automated and outsourced.

No, I mean that to avoid the scenario I described we need to invest in training.

You're right, there isn't an unending source of skilled jobs either. Training will slow the inevitable ultimate result of our economic system but not stop it.

 

[Hacp]

We've had this discussion in P&N before, and people always say that the main product of the US is now IP/ideas as opposed to manufactured goods. While I don't disagree with that, the fact of the matter is that not everyone is capable of becoming a researcher/designer/innovator. Before the huge push toward globalization started, we had a large manufacturing base to provide jobs for this group. What new field will spring up to replace those jobs?

Additionally, is it inevitable that the average unemployment rate will rise long-term as we become more efficient? Is the end result of progress a world in which no one has to work because everything can be efficiently provided for everyone? I realize that such an end scenario would be very far into the future, but as efficiency improves it is something I think about.

We can reclaim that manufacturing base if we make it cheaper for business to operate in the US. Lower taxes, slash regulation, get rid of the minimum wage. Watch manufactuering jobs that went overseas rush back home.

 

[Infohawk]

Thank you federal government.

I'm not a fan of the minimum wage and other regulations that make hiring someone more expensive, so to some extent I agree with you. HOWEVER, this is not all about government. Technology is becoming cheaper than human labor even in a purely free market.

Take secretaries that type up voice recordings by their bosses which is becoming less and less needed (because bosses now tend to know how to type.) In 10 or 20 years the speech recognition software will likely be to the point where it is reliable for professional use. For $100 bucks at most that software is more economical than hiring a human even if the human is paid 5 an hour.

 

[StageLeft]

Unless they are allowed to by the government via handouts, even when technology can do what humans do they will still be employed simply by being cheaper than the machine. In manufacturing we see many tasks being done by humans that a machine could do quicker and more consistently, but the human costs $20/hour(?) and the machine may cost a couple million to setup. Only when the overall cost comes into a certain realm is a machine put there and the person removed. So if machines got better, essentially idle people would be willing to work less to change this to the point where the machine again is not worth building/maintaining, so they use the person.

If anybody here has actually been on a manufacturing floor there are humans quite literally doing, for hours on end, tasks a monkey could be trained to do. Not all manufacturing is like this but an awful lot is. And a machine can do most of them but it's not worth building because a human arm and eyes can be had for $20/hour but to put that into a machine requires a substantial amount of engineering effort.

It seems more important than ever to be significantly educated. In the end, as long as you're "better than most" you will have to worry about your job last. And there are still a damn lot of Americans who are stupid, uneducated, and lazy. So when we read articles like this it is a warning to us but more a warning to not be one of those that this article really is aimed at.

Do you know every year thousands of people are laid off in the US in, for example, manufacturing and these are people who saw the writing on the wall for years prior and yet did nothing to obviate their unemployment via better education? Many of them are smart enough to become nurses if they took night classes or a year off and pounded that out, but they don't. They just sit head-down waiting for their turn on the chopping block.

 

[Moonbeam]

When do we hit the singularity? It will mean the end of all work for the human race. I hope you have hobbies. I can't wait for my exoskeleton so I can play Warcraft for real.

 

[StageLeft]

We can reclaim that manufacturing base if we make it cheaper for business to operate in the US. Lower taxes, slash regulation, get rid of the minimum wage. Watch manufactuering jobs that went overseas rush back home.

Minimum wage is almost meaningless. Virtually nobody working in a manufacturing environment is working close to it and this includes non-union shops. Jobs are mainly going overseas because a buffoon can work many of them and a buffoon in Mexico costs $3/hour whereas a buffoon in Michigan costs $20.

 

[ShawnD1]

wtf do you mean 2020??? this is happening right now... the man is trying as hard as he can to find some cheaper alternative to paying me what i cost... it ain't the future, it's now...

This. One of my instructors was complaining that he would never get his current job if he had to apply right now. He originally got the job because he has numerous low level tickets like journeyman electrician, 2-year electrical engineering technology diploma, over 10 years of design experience, and has an RET certificate (basically it's a ticket saying he worked at a senior engineering level for 10 years). Current minimum to get a teaching job at this school: master's degree, which he doesn't have.

We can reclaim that manufacturing base if we make it cheaper for business to operate in the US. Lower taxes, slash regulation, get rid of the minimum wage. Watch manufactuering jobs that went overseas rush back home.

And watch crime go way up when people realize working for $3/hour is incredibly stupid when you could sell cocaine for $500/hour. It's not a big incentive when you're already doing ok (living comfortable but don't have a car or nice clothes). It's a huge incentive when you're actually facing eviction and might be homeless when winter is just around the corner. Maybe this is just me, but I'd stab you in the face for $50 if I was in a situation that tight.

 

[Infohawk]

Is the end result of progress a world in which no one has to work because everything can be efficiently provided for everyone? I realize that such an end scenario would be very far into the future, but as efficiency improves it is something I think about.

Me too. In 30 or 40 years down the line (maybe even more), it seems like the paradigm will truly shift. I am just not sure that our political system is ready to handle such a shift. My guess is that a small minority will will own the robots / software that can be used to do much of everything. Will they want to share?

 

[Bl0cks]

You can't outsource lawn mowing. OH WAIT...

 

[Hacp]

Minimum wage is almost meaningless. Virtually nobody working in a manufacturing environment is working close to it and this includes non-union shops. Jobs are mainly going overseas because a buffoon can work many of them and a buffoon in Mexico costs $3/hour whereas a buffoon in Michigan costs $20.

Regulation, which includes union busting. There are people willing to work for 3 dollars an hour or less. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be on welfare or food stamps or any other form of government assistance.

 

[Infohawk]

Training will slow the inevitable ultimate result of our economic system but not stop it.

What will replace our economic system?

 

[Hacp]

Me too. In 30 or 40 years down the line (maybe even more), it seems like the paradigm will truly shift. I am just not sure that our political system is ready to handle such a shift. My guess is that a small minority will will own the robots / software that can be used to do much of everything. Will they want to share?

Its about how much you produce. If we produce the stuff in the US, that is good. So getting the businesses to produce in the US is top priority. As for distribution, well the laws of supply and demand apply here. If computers suddenly cost pennies to make, you can pump out a shitload and people will buy them. That inherently creates wealth because people are better off.

 

[Elias824]

seems like its moslty the uneducated works for that will be out of a job. Engineers will always be needed, the quesiton is what to do with all the people who are unwilling or unable to become productive in a new era. Let them starve or prop them up on welfare

 

[Infohawk]

When do we hit the singularity? It will mean the end of all work for the human race. I hope you have hobbies. I can't wait for my exoskeleton so I can play Warcraft for real.

You have more faith in humanity than I do if you think people will be playing sports with each other. I imagine more of a Roman aristocracy on top which a bunch of "luxury" slaves for entertainment and a whole lot of dead "unecessary" people. But I'm all about a Star Trek economy if it's feasible.

 

[StageLeft]

Regulation, which includes union busting. There are people willing to work for 3 dollars an hour or less. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be on welfare or food stamps or any other form of government assistance.

You didn't read my post. Again:

Virtually nobody working in a manufacturing environment is working close to it and this includes non-union shops.

 

[Infohawk]

seems like its moslty the uneducated works for that will be out of a job. Engineers will always be needed, the quesiton is what to do with all the people who are unwilling or unable to become productive in a new era. Let them starve or prop them up on welfare

What do you think we should do with them?

 

[ShawnD1]

seems like its moslty the uneducated works for that will be out of a job. Engineers will always be needed, the quesiton is what to do with all the people who are unwilling or unable to become productive in a new era. Let them starve or prop them up on welfare

Engineering jobs are the easiest to ship overseas. Not for things like designing the city's sewage system, but for things like computers and robots. Why engineer it in the US or Canada when it can be done by a Chinese engineer for a lot less.

Its about how much you produce. If we produce the stuff in the US, that is good. So getting the businesses to produce in the US is top priority. As for distribution, well the laws of supply and demand apply here. If computers suddenly cost pennies to make, you can pump out a shitload and people will buy them. That inherently creates wealth because people are better off.

This is assuming people can actually afford the computers. Most of our stuff is made in China but most Chinese people can't afford any of this stuff because they are paid almost nothing. I probably look like a billionaire by Chinese standards.

 

[Moonbeam]

You have more faith in humanity than I do if you think people will be playing sports with each other. I imagine more of a Roman aristocracy on top which a bunch of "luxury" slaves for entertainment and a whole lot of dead "unecessary" people. But I'm all about a Star Trek economy if it's feasible.

The machines that govern us will either not allow something like that, having mastered the concept of justice, or we will all be dead. And goods will be in infinite supply. And they will have to govern because we won't be able to keep up with the technological advances that will occur when the machines self program. The machines will have to feel love or we will die. We better be sure we know something about what love is, eh, so we have something to teach.

 

[Elias824]

What do you think we should do with them?

I suppose those who are unwilling to work will have to eat those who are unable to work. Perhaps those of us who have jobs will be nice enough to hire maids and cooks for our homes.