At the North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), held in Detroit, Bob Lutz, head of product development, unveiled the muscular Chevy Volt, a concept vehicle that he vowed would become the world's first mass-produced electric car. A direct descendent of the EV1, the new vehicle Lutz described would derive all its propulsion from a single electric motor. For the first 64 kilometres of a trip - longer than most daily commutes - a rechargeable battery that you could plug into a standard wall socket at home would power the motor all by itself; for longer drives, a gasoline generator would kick in to provide continued electrical current to the motor.
Technically speaking, the car would be a hybrid. But unlike current models such as Toyota's Prius, it would be propelled entirely by its electric motor, rather than alternating between electric and gas motors. This "series" hybrid design (as opposed to "parallel" technology) would give the Volt a range of about 960 kilometres if you were to drive on one battery charge and a single filling of its 45-litre gas tank. But since its batteries could be recharged between trips, the need to draw on its gasoline generator would be greatly reduced. Over the course of its life, the car would average about 60 kilometres a litre, depending on the length of trips between plug-in battery recharges - a level that would leave today's gas-electric hybrids eating dust. Or, as Lutz put it at NAIAS, most Americans live within 30 kilometres of work; given the range of the Volt on its battery alone, "you might never burn a drop of gas."
To some, Lutz's claim must have sounded like science fiction. But when he pulled the wraps off the Volt 12 months ago, he also announced a production target of November 2010 - a schedule that even electric-car enthusiasts say is audacious. The implications are mind-blowing. In three short years, consumers could be celebrating the arrival of an affordable electric vehicle (GM's target sticker price is under $30,000) that would cost a driver travelling 100 kilometres a day only $1,000 a year in gas and electricity.
But there's a roadblock standing in the way of the Volt's arrival: the battery. Liquid-cooled and managed by complex software, the lithium-ion power source will be the most advanced energy storage unit in the world, and GM is moving forward on the Volt's engineering and design under the assumption that the battery will work. At this time, however, that is a big assumption. Lithium-ion batteries may be commonly used in consumer electronics, such as laptop computers. But no one has tried to put one in a car, and it's an open question as to whether they'll stand up to the rigours of daily driving, or whether they'll meet minimum lifespans required in some U.S. states - or even if GM will be able to build them into cars at a price that typical consumers are willing to pay.
Thanks to advancements in lithium-ion technology, GM claimed the Volt's battery would be smaller, making room for four seats, double the number of passengers that the EV1 could carry. It would reach a comfortable top speed of 190 km/h, better than the EV1's 130 km/h, and it would have a range that would satisfy the needs of most drivers.
The concern, says battery lab manager Douglas Drauch, is not whether the lithium-ion pack will provide the energy storage and power required - specifically, 16 kWh at 350V - it's whether the battery will last a full 10 years, the minimum lifespan that's required in such states as California. "That's the kind of work we're doing," he says. "We run accelerated life tests. We'll get 10 or 15 years worth of cycling done in a couple of years."
It's possible that GM could find itself producing an experimental car that few people want to buy. And even if it can hit its aggressive sales targets, it still won't be making money. Given the cost of the battery and the determination to keep prices affordable, there's no way GM is going to turn a profit on the Volt, at least not until a few years down the road when economies of scale tip the business model into the black. "The economics of this thing are ugly," Lauckner admits in a moment of candour.
Ugly economics was GM's rationale for taking the EV1 out behind the barn five years ago. This time around, however, there's more at stake than the bottom-line results for a single product line. "The Volt is an environmental halo car," says Erich Merkle, an analyst at Michigan-based automotive research firm IRN. "Right now, GM doesn't get credit for anything it does that enhances fuel efficiency. The Volt is an important PR piece because it allows them to say to the world, 'We are leaders in fuel efficiency.'"
Winning the PR battle, of course, is just the first step in restoring the troubled company to its former status. In fact, GM's pain tolerance for expenses related to the Volt is so high that last September, during negotiations with the United Auto Workers, it committed to building the car in Hamtramck, Mich., instead of its cheaper manufacturing plants in Mexico, as originally planned. "There's more to this than dollars and cents," says Lauckner.
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