- Sep 10, 2003
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I'm now scared to death about asteroids!
- Thread starter preslove
- Start date
GagHalfrunt
Lifer
- Apr 19, 2001
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Remember, it's not a matter of if it's going to happen again, it's a matter of when. The dinosaurs were in charge for 150 million years and a rock from space wiped them out almost overnight. We're probably going to go the same way.
I thought it was more like 160 million?
Yeah giant asteroids are scary. I mean what do you do about a giant asteroid on a collision course with earth but wait to die horribly?
GagHalfrunt
Lifer
- Apr 19, 2001
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moshquerade
No Lifer
- Nov 1, 2001
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Random Variable
Lifer
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ConstipatedVigilante
Diamond Member
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I figure with the number of pizzas I eat, I will die of a heart attack long before I ever have to worry about an asteroid.
You want to be scared? Read "The Making of the Atomic Bomb". Scary but interesting stuff. Best book I've read in a while.
http://www.amazon.com/Making-A...&qid=1213673977&sr=8-1
http://www.amazon.com/Making-A...&qid=1213673977&sr=8-1
Jeff7
Lifer
- Jan 4, 2001
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The other fun part:
NASA recently altered their mission statement to exclude the part about protecting Earth.
:laugh:
Like GagHalfrunt said, it's not an "If" it will happen thing, it's "when." The odds of Earth never again sustaining an impact are just impossibly low. The question is, will it be in 50 years, or in 50 million? The problem is that while the chance of it happening during humanity's reign on this planet may be low, the results could affect literally everyone. If it hits in a major population center, you'll have millions dying instantly. Then there's the effects of the immense amount of dust and debris blasted into the atmosphere.
I highly doubt that homo sapiens would become extinct, but a lot of us would certainly die off.
The best solutions are a lot less movie-worthy: Gravity tractors or thruster systems.
A gravity tractor would involve parking a fairly massive probe next to an object, which would use angled engines, possibly ion-engines, and slowly pull at the asteroid.
The other option would be to land engines on the body, and use them to push on it. This would be complicated though by the body's irregular rotation, a problem that the gravity tractor would not face.
Either solution would be applied of the course of several years, causing a slight change in the trajectory of the object, causing it to miss Earth.
This of course requires that potential threats be identified decades in advance. First an object would likely need a dedicated orbiting probe, to better characterize its orbit. Then the gravity tractor and/or thrusters would need to be designed, constructed, and launched. After that, you hope that the darn things keep on working, and continue to monitor the orbit of the body.
And here's a fun one
If something of this size were approaching, we'd be screwed, unless it was several thousand years from hitting.
The good thing is that bodies that large have long ago been swept up.
Also, give thanks to Jupiter. It's done a nice job of cleaning up a lot of junk that was flying around the solar system.
He also said that a HUGE body could sterilize Earth. No. Hell no. Maybe it could kill 99% of all life. No. Won't happen. Something will survive somewhere. Life forms exist at the bottom of the ocean at vents that are several hundred degrees Fahrenheit. They do not need sunlight to survive, they live on thermal energy and chemical energy.
Just finished watching the video. Except for the bit about sterilizing Earth, it was pretty well spot-on.
NASA recently altered their mission statement to exclude the part about protecting Earth.
:laugh:
That's why it's a good idea to keep an eye out to find them early. If it's found early, a small nudge would alter an object's orbit enough so that it would no longer be a threat.
Like GagHalfrunt said, it's not an "If" it will happen thing, it's "when." The odds of Earth never again sustaining an impact are just impossibly low. The question is, will it be in 50 years, or in 50 million? The problem is that while the chance of it happening during humanity's reign on this planet may be low, the results could affect literally everyone. If it hits in a major population center, you'll have millions dying instantly. Then there's the effects of the immense amount of dust and debris blasted into the atmosphere.
I highly doubt that homo sapiens would become extinct, but a lot of us would certainly die off.
Not enough. It'd be like punching a semi headed for you and hoping it'll stop it. You'll hurt your fist right before you're crushed to a pulp.
The best solutions are a lot less movie-worthy: Gravity tractors or thruster systems.
A gravity tractor would involve parking a fairly massive probe next to an object, which would use angled engines, possibly ion-engines, and slowly pull at the asteroid.
The other option would be to land engines on the body, and use them to push on it. This would be complicated though by the body's irregular rotation, a problem that the gravity tractor would not face.
Either solution would be applied of the course of several years, causing a slight change in the trajectory of the object, causing it to miss Earth.
This of course requires that potential threats be identified decades in advance. First an object would likely need a dedicated orbiting probe, to better characterize its orbit. Then the gravity tractor and/or thrusters would need to be designed, constructed, and launched. After that, you hope that the darn things keep on working, and continue to monitor the orbit of the body.
And here's a fun one
If something of this size were approaching, we'd be screwed, unless it was several thousand years from hitting.
The good thing is that bodies that large have long ago been swept up.
Also, give thanks to Jupiter. It's done a nice job of cleaning up a lot of junk that was flying around the solar system.
He also said that a HUGE body could sterilize Earth. No. Hell no. Maybe it could kill 99% of all life. No. Won't happen. Something will survive somewhere. Life forms exist at the bottom of the ocean at vents that are several hundred degrees Fahrenheit. They do not need sunlight to survive, they live on thermal energy and chemical energy.
Just finished watching the video. Except for the bit about sterilizing Earth, it was pretty well spot-on.
Evadman
Administrator Emeritus<br>Elite Member
- Feb 18, 2001
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No we won't. We are the first species that can destroy ourselves, and we will.
Look at what we have done in only the last 6000 years, we went from stone tools where it took 20+ people to take down a mastodon for food to one person who can hit the wrong button and destroy the entire population of the world with nukes. Or maybe the Large Hadron Colider will create a black hole and the earth will be sucked in (something like a million trillion to 1 odds, but the possibility is there)
But sitting here worrying that it will happen will not do anyone any good.
Jeff7
Lifer
- Jan 4, 2001
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It's a "possibility" along the same lines as someone else put it in another thread about it - dragons could also pop out of the LHC when they turn it on. "Possible" when you're talking to a theoretical physicist takes on a whole new meaning. I think they said that Earth's destruction by micro-black holes is as likely as winning a major lottery every day 3 weeks in a row. I'd have a better chance of seeing those dragons.
The threat of full-scale nuclear war is MUCH more realistically possible. And again, while it's not an extinction-level event, it sure would result in a lot of deaths, both immediate and secondary.
Really though, the LHC is nothing to worry about. The production of black holes would first require that String Theory is real, which a lot of people think it's not. Just for such a thing to come into existence in the first place is effectively impossible. Second, any black holes created would have a tough time devouring a single proton. Third, the smaller a black hole is, the quicker it evaporates by way of Hawking Radiation. Fourth, it would somehow have to escape the magnetic confinement of the inside of the collider.
Evadman
Administrator Emeritus<br>Elite Member
- Feb 18, 2001
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I just used the LHC as an example. Someone pressing the large red button would be much more likely. But everyone bitches about how the LHC is going to end the world, so I just wanted to pander to that fear. mostly because I am evil.
kamper
Diamond Member
- Mar 18, 2003
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I'm a bit confused, but I think that guy called Steve Buscemi "impossibly good looking"
But really, preparing for this now would be somewhat silly. He gave no good reasons as to why anything seriously tragic would happen now. His evidence on the one in the Indian ocean that would supposedly wipe out every asian coastal city was a bit weak. Based on what we do know, the probability of anything seriously tragic happening soon seem rather slim. We'd probably be better off saving our resources for a while because, if we ever gain the capability of deflecting a rock, I think it's safe to assume we'll go well past that and have the ability to do it quite easily. Really, this guy is just preying on fear and the interesting but unlikely possibility that we would gain the ability to defend ourselves just at the same time that a serious threat actually came our way. I think he's just trying to sell books.
But really, preparing for this now would be somewhat silly. He gave no good reasons as to why anything seriously tragic would happen now. His evidence on the one in the Indian ocean that would supposedly wipe out every asian coastal city was a bit weak. Based on what we do know, the probability of anything seriously tragic happening soon seem rather slim. We'd probably be better off saving our resources for a while because, if we ever gain the capability of deflecting a rock, I think it's safe to assume we'll go well past that and have the ability to do it quite easily. Really, this guy is just preying on fear and the interesting but unlikely possibility that we would gain the ability to defend ourselves just at the same time that a serious threat actually came our way. I think he's just trying to sell books.
James Bond
Diamond Member
- Jan 21, 2005
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destrekor
Lifer
- Nov 18, 2005
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OOOOOOOO !!!FEAR MONGERING!!!! OOOOOOO
plans have been drawn up that make that 'gravitational tractor' idea seem haphazard anyhow, it's ridiculous. And if something happens, so be it.
I hope some giant asteroid hits the moon. What will we do then to save us from the moon hitting us... huh, huh? Take that worthless fearmongerer, what say we do then?
+
plans have been drawn up that make that 'gravitational tractor' idea seem haphazard anyhow, it's ridiculous. And if something happens, so be it.
I hope some giant asteroid hits the moon. What will we do then to save us from the moon hitting us... huh, huh?
Take that worthless fearmongerer, what say we do then? +
Jeff7
Lifer
- Jan 4, 2001
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Part of the problem is that we see a lot of objects as they're passing AWAY from Earth.Originally posted by: kamper
I'm a bit confused, but I think that guy called Steve Buscemi "impossibly good looking"
But really, preparing for this now would be somewhat silly. He gave no good reasons as to why anything seriously tragic would happen now. His evidence on the one in the Indian ocean that would supposedly wipe out every asian coastal city was a bit weak. Based on what we do know, the probability of anything seriously tragic happening soon seem rather slim. We'd probably be better off saving our resources for a while because, if we ever gain the capability of deflecting a rock, I think it's safe to assume we'll go well past that and have the ability to do it quite easily. Really, this guy is just preying on fear and the interesting but unlikely possibility that we would gain the ability to defend ourselves just at the same time that a serious threat actually came our way. I think he's just trying to sell books.
And then there's stuff like this and this and this. There was also Comet Schoemaker-Levy, which hit Jupiter a few years ago. The estimated energy release of that collision was over 200,000 megatons for each of the 20+ pieces. (Source)
Another source cites it into the millions of megatons
Take those and smack them into Earth instead. All of North America, and likely South America as well, could have been completely leveled, with enough debris blasted into the air to kill off most plant-based foodstuffs in the rest of the world.
If something a few hundred meters wide hit the Indian Ocean, there'd be devastating tsunamis on most of the US coast as well. Australia would also feel it, as would Africa. Remember the tsunamis from the earthquake in December of 2004? The devastation was incredible and far-reaching. A large object hitting the ocean would make that seem like a ripple in a bathtub.
There's nothing saying will happen "now." There's nothing saying it won't, either.
Hell, the thing in Tunguska was just in the 1900's. That was almost certainly caused by the sudden, explosive disintegration of some low-density comet or meteor, and it leveled almost 1000 square miles of forest. If that had occurred in a densely-populated part of Europe, you would see a LOT of money being spent on missions to monitor, asses, and deflect asteroids and comets.
For an idea of scale, NYC is less than 500 square miles.
Link - the object was estimated to be 90-190 meters across.
Something that size could basically erase New York City and the surrounding suburbs and vegetation, and it happened only 100 years ago.
Small objects make it to the ground on a fairly regular basis, sometimes causing property damage, and more rarely, personal injury.
Yes, the chances of a hit happening at any point in time are slim. The chances of a hit happening at some point in time are very nearly 100%. The repercussions of such a hit could be utterly devastating.
It's not some stupid "I want to sell books" thing - it's an expense that people don't want to buy for the reason many don't buy insurance. It's expensive, and you hope that something bad won't happen. But this "bad thing" isn't just losing your car, house, or life. This "bad thing" could mean a death toll in the billions.
- Sep 10, 2003
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Originally posted by: kamper
I'm a bit confused, but I think that guy called Steve Buscemi "impossibly good looking"
But really, preparing for this now would be somewhat silly. He gave no good reasons as to why anything seriously tragic would happen now. His evidence on the one in the Indian ocean that would supposedly wipe out every asian coastal city was a bit weak. Based on what we do know, the probability of anything seriously tragic happening soon seem rather slim. We'd probably be better off saving our resources for a while because, if we ever gain the capability of deflecting a rock, I think it's safe to assume we'll go well past that and have the ability to do it quite easily. Really, this guy is just preying on fear and the interesting but unlikely possibility that we would gain the ability to defend ourselves just at the same time that a serious threat actually came our way. I think he's just trying to sell books.
People like you doom the planet
SlickSnake
Diamond Member
- May 29, 2007
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I liked this comment in one of the youtube videos posted in this thread (the one with the really big object hitting earth):
SlickSnake
Diamond Member
- May 29, 2007
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