Update #2:
Today, I purchased my 28th consecutive losing bottle of pepsi (itunes 1 in 3 wins promotion, last date to redeem = 5/23/05)
The probability of losing 28 consecutive times is (2/3)^28
=.00001173
Or, the odds of anyone losing 28 consecutive times is 1 in 85,222
If I lose tomorrow, it jumps to 1 in a quarter million.
10 more losing bottles and I'll be at 1 in nearly 5 million!
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Update: got my monday 20oz pepsi....
I've now lost 18 times in a row, with the probability of winning = 1 in 3.
Odds of losing 18 in a row = (2/3)^18 = .0006766
or, about 1 in 1500.
If I continue losing the rest of this week, it will soar to 1 in nearly 17 thousand.
Question: is it legal to control the distribution of where winners and losers are? (No, I'm not going to sue pepsi) Someone from one of the pepsi distributors told me once that with their larger corporate accounts they would do something like this: "If you'll agree to have one of these extra large displays in your store, we'll guarantee one of the big winners will be from your store."
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Almost 3 weeks ago, on a rare occasion, I had three 20ounce pepsi's in one day. Jokingly, I made the comment at the time "this is the 3rd one, so I'm due to win" (I understand probability better than that - the copmment was a joke... each time, it's an independent 1/3 probability... well, insignificantly close, since there are a finite number of bottles and I already removed 2 losers)
Anyway, since that time for amusement's sake, I kept track.
I have now lost 17 consecutive times.
What are the odds of that? Edit: OOOOP!!! (TWO/3)^17
or about 1 in 1000.
Am I *that* unlucky, or is Pepsi full of sh!t when they claim "1 in 3 wins"
Thanks for correcting me, Chucky, et al.
Today, I purchased my 28th consecutive losing bottle of pepsi (itunes 1 in 3 wins promotion, last date to redeem = 5/23/05)
The probability of losing 28 consecutive times is (2/3)^28
=.00001173
Or, the odds of anyone losing 28 consecutive times is 1 in 85,222
If I lose tomorrow, it jumps to 1 in a quarter million.
10 more losing bottles and I'll be at 1 in nearly 5 million!
-------------------------------------
Update: got my monday 20oz pepsi....
I've now lost 18 times in a row, with the probability of winning = 1 in 3.
Odds of losing 18 in a row = (2/3)^18 = .0006766
or, about 1 in 1500.
If I continue losing the rest of this week, it will soar to 1 in nearly 17 thousand.
Question: is it legal to control the distribution of where winners and losers are? (No, I'm not going to sue pepsi) Someone from one of the pepsi distributors told me once that with their larger corporate accounts they would do something like this: "If you'll agree to have one of these extra large displays in your store, we'll guarantee one of the big winners will be from your store."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Almost 3 weeks ago, on a rare occasion, I had three 20ounce pepsi's in one day. Jokingly, I made the comment at the time "this is the 3rd one, so I'm due to win" (I understand probability better than that - the copmment was a joke... each time, it's an independent 1/3 probability... well, insignificantly close, since there are a finite number of bottles and I already removed 2 losers)
Anyway, since that time for amusement's sake, I kept track.
I have now lost 17 consecutive times.
What are the odds of that? Edit: OOOOP!!! (TWO/3)^17
or about 1 in 1000.
Am I *that* unlucky, or is Pepsi full of sh!t when they claim "1 in 3 wins"
Thanks for correcting me, Chucky, et al.
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