If Trump doesn't get the nomination ......

[soundforbjt]

I am looking forward to trump vs hillary. They asked him about hillary and he said he wants to close before even starting on her. He said he could stay all night just talking about hillary.

The polls show hillary vs trump have yet to take into consideration if he got nominated and gave her the Bush treatment.

Hillary's tougher then any of the guys Drumpf's been fighting.

 

[MongGrel]

Seems like Trump wins FL no matter what happens, right? The numbers yesterday seemed to suggest that..but I wasn't paying attention to Rubio + Cruz numbers. Not sure why a lot of Rubio's support wouldn't go to Kasic.

My dad lives in Jacksonville, and it's no end to the complaints of how he's surrounded by idiot Drumpf drones over the last year. Must be torture. From what I recall, half of what was supposed to be Jeb!'s votes went to Trump long ago, and I can only assume a large number of the rest went to him after Jeb! dropped out?

I'm surprised Rubio isn't dropping out by now, I predict he is going to be embarrassed in his home state.

I don't see how it is remotely possible that Cruz beats Hillary. Trump is generally hated the most, but Cruz makes people feel all icky and gross just looking at him. Both are hated by independents, all democrats, and moderate republicans (though I guess not so much for Trump here).

I think with Cruz, the evangelicals in this nation are going to learn that they aren't as plentiful as they think they are.

+1

Hillary's tougher then any of the guys Drumpf's been fighting.

Another +1

 

[MagickMan]

Hillary's tougher then any of the guys Drumpf's been fighting.

HAHAHAHAHA!! How can you say that with a straight face? All the debates have been veritable coronations and Sanders is so weak in 1v1 situations he won't even look her in the eye.

 

[compuwiz1]

Cruz may have a chance IF delusional little Marco gets out of the way. If Marco doesn't go look in a mirror, have a come to Jesus meeting with himself, and clearly look at the reality of his situation, he may forever ruin his political career.

He's gonna get trounced in Florida. Florida will do more good for Cruz than it will for Rubio, but I think Trump still wins that state, although, maybe not, if Rubio gets out of the way.

 

[chowderhead]

The RNC all last year was concerned about Trump and the third party run. That is why they made all the candidates sign that loyalty oath and why Fox pulled that gotcha moment at the first debate with the hand raising. If they deny Trump the nomination at the convention, he won't have the time to get on all the ballots as deadlines and sore loser laws will have passed in many states. However, if Trump could get on just a few strategic states such as Virginia and Ohio which have filing deadlines after the convention, he would basically deny Republicans the path to the White House. Or, he can try and get on a third party line. The fundamental issue is that Trump is a real estate investor. His threat of bolting is his ability to get media coverage and his wealth. The RNC took it seriously so they handled him with kid gloves hoping he would fade and go away until it was too late. I believe that the vast vast majority of his wealth is held in non liquid assets. I don't think he could or would sell buildings/assets to fund an independent bid. He really isn't spending money on paid media and if he did, he would have locked up the nomination faster. The media really should be looking into this but I think he is wealthy but his threats to fund an independent bid is a bluff. It takes money to organize and collect signatures. I am not sure Trump could raise the funds that quickly to meet these deadlines.

 

[zinfamous]

HAHAHAHAHA!! How can you say that with a straight face? All the debates have been veritable coronations and Sanders is so weak in 1v1 situations he won't even look her in the eye.

wait...you're using the 3rd grade shoving matches that have been the republican debates as evidence of "toughness" from any of those clowns?
Those kids have as much substance as a jellyfish.

Sorry, you can't sit around and name-call people on the general stage and expect a country of moderates to take you seriously.

Whichever Pub graduates middle school and stumbles into the general better grow up, or expect a catastrophic landslide.

 

[werepossum]

Cruz may have a chance IF delusional little Marco gets out of the way. If Marco doesn't go look in a mirror, have a come to Jesus meeting with himself, and clearly look at the reality of his situation, he may forever ruin his political career.

He's gonna get trounced in Florida. Florida will do more good for Cruz than it will for Rubio, but I think Trump still wins that state, although, maybe not, if Rubio gets out of the way.

Rubio's path to the nomination isn't delegates, it's a brokered convention. Although I think that may well be illusory; with Romney's increased presence, the Powers That Be (or perhaps more accurately, the Powers That Want to Be) may well decide to go with someone who hasn't had dismal election results this year.

The RNC all last year was concerned about Trump and the third party run. That is why they made all the candidates sign that loyalty oath and why Fox pulled that gotcha moment at the first debate with the hand raising. If they deny Trump the nomination at the convention, he won't have the time to get on all the ballots as deadlines and sore loser laws will have passed in many states. However, if Trump could get on just a few strategic states such as Virginia and Ohio which have filing deadlines after the convention, he would basically deny Republicans the path to the White House. Or, he can try and get on a third party line. The fundamental issue is that Trump is a real estate investor. His threat of bolting is his ability to get media coverage and his wealth. The RNC took it seriously so they handled him with kid gloves hoping he would fade and go away until it was too late. I believe that the vast vast majority of his wealth is held in non liquid assets. I don't think he could or would sell buildings/assets to fund an independent bid. He really isn't spending money on paid media and if he did, he would have locked up the nomination faster. The media really should be looking into this but I think he is wealthy but his threats to fund an independent bid is a bluff. It takes money to organize and collect signatures. I am not sure Trump could raise the funds that quickly to meet these deadlines.

I'm not at all sure that more Trump equates to more votes for Trump. As far as his threats to fund an independent bid, he wouldn't need to spend money there either; the mainstream media will gleefully give him all the help he needs to destroy the Republican Party. And unlike the general election where he needs to double his current support base, as a spoiler he need only retain a small portion of his current support base to punish the GOP.

 

[MagickMan]

wait...you're using the 3rd grade shoving matches that have been the republican debates as evidence of "toughness" from any of those clowns?
Those kids have as much substance as a jellyfish.

Sorry, you can't sit around and name-call people on the general stage and expect a country of moderates to take you seriously.

Whichever Pub graduates middle school and stumbles into the general better grow up, or expect a catastrophic landslide.

Pfftt. Hitlery can't handle being disagreed with, or even questioned, she gets #Triggered so badly she can't even function. Why would anyone want such a person as POTUS?

 

[brycejones]

Pfftt. Hitlery can't handle being disagreed with, or even questioned, she gets #Triggered so badly she can't even function. Why would anyone want such a person as POTUS?

Lol just lol.

 

[SP33Demon]

The RNC all last year was concerned about Trump and the third party run. That is why they made all the candidates sign that loyalty oath and why Fox pulled that gotcha moment at the first debate with the hand raising. If they deny Trump the nomination at the convention, he won't have the time to get on all the ballots as deadlines and sore loser laws will have passed in many states. However, if Trump could get on just a few strategic states such as Virginia and Ohio which have filing deadlines after the convention, he would basically deny Republicans the path to the White House. Or, he can try and get on a third party line. The fundamental issue is that Trump is a real estate investor. His threat of bolting is his ability to get media coverage and his wealth. The RNC took it seriously so they handled him with kid gloves hoping he would fade and go away until it was too late. I believe that the vast vast majority of his wealth is held in non liquid assets. I don't think he could or would sell buildings/assets to fund an independent bid. He really isn't spending money on paid media and if he did, he would have locked up the nomination faster. The media really should be looking into this but I think he is wealthy but his threats to fund an independent bid is a bluff. It takes money to organize and collect signatures. I am not sure Trump could raise the funds that quickly to meet these deadlines.

So Trump couldn't take out a large loan against his 4bill in assets? Riiiight.

 

[sunzt]

So Trump couldn't take out a large loan against his 4bill in assets? Riiiight.

He doesn't strike me as the type to take out a large loan in order to lose an election.

 

[zinfamous]

Pfftt. Hitlery can't handle being disagreed with, or even questioned, she gets #Triggered so badly she can't even function. Why would anyone want such a person as POTUS?

...in this comparison you are tagging Hillary with the Fuhrer analogy and not Trump?

Are you actually paying attention to anything? Did you skip history from ~7th-12th grade?

 

[zinfamous]

Rubio's path to the nomination isn't delegates, it's a brokered convention. Although I think that may well be illusory; with Romney's increased presence, the Powers That Be (or perhaps more accurately, the Powers That Want to Be) may well decide to go with someone who hasn't had dismal election results this year.


I'm not at all sure that more Trump equates to more votes for Trump. As far as his threats to fund an independent bid, he wouldn't need to spend money there either; the mainstream media will gleefully give him all the help he needs to destroy the Republican Party. And unlike the general election where he needs to double his current support base, as a spoiler he need only retain a small portion of his current support base to punish the GOP.

exactly on both points. Especially with Trump: more Trump is a very bad thing for Trump votes in the general. He will certainly have to ramp up the advertising and create a sort of golden boy character--a complete 180--if he hopes to win more than 3 or 4 states (none of which matter to anyone. Hey, at least he'll carry Idaho. He claimed to love potatoes the other day).

The media and the dems will be more than happy to counteract his polished advertising by simply running video of Trump being...well, Trump.

 

[SP33Demon]

exactly on both points. Especially with Trump: more Trump is a very bad thing for Trump votes in the general. He will certainly have to ramp up the advertising and create a sort of golden boy character--a complete 180--if he hopes to win more than 3 or 4 states (none of which matter to anyone. Hey, at least he'll carry Idaho. He claimed to love potatoes the other day).

The media and the dems will be more than happy to counteract his polished advertising by simply running video of Trump being...well, Trump.

Uh, Idaho likes cruz. not Trump. You haven't been paying attention. Regardless Trump has been smacking cruz down so far. Idaho was cruz' only highlight on a day that saw him get smoked in big delegate states like MI, MS. And he even lost little Hawaii to trump.

 

[dullard]

Couldn't he run as an independent? And basically screw the republican party?

Few people here actually addressed your point.

1) The Republican party is basically screwed anyways. There was a crack that formed in the Nixon administration (basically the GOP never fully came together as a whole when the southern Democrats joined starting in the late 1950s, but mostly throughout the 1960s and early 1970s). That crack was nearly healed under Reagan, but it didn't take. Note the loss of Bush Sr. when Perot ran and the formation of the tea party under Bush Jr. There is a full out civil war internally now.

Trump is the symptom, not the cause.

2) Trump can actually temporarily HELP the GOP by running as an independent. There is a very good likelihood that it would end up being ~45% Clinton (D), ~30% Trump (I), ~25% Cruz (R). Yes, that would lose the presidency. But, that could very likely give the GOP a near veto proof majority in the house and senate because Trump would bring in the tea party voters and Cruz would bring in the rest of the GOP. The GOP would dominate down-ticket in that election.

It would give the GOP the mandate (big house and senate gains) while Clinton would be crippled by getting far less than 50% of the vote.

True, that would only last 4 years, but that might be the time the GOP needs to fix their rift and find actual candidates that people want to vote for. Short of a miracle happening for the GOP between now and the end of the primary, Trump running as an independent might be the best outcome that the GOP can get from this election.

 

[zinfamous]

Uh, Idaho likes cruz. not Trump. You haven't been paying attention. Regardless Trump has been smacking cruz down so far. Idaho was cruz' only highlight on a day that saw him get smoked in big delegate states like MI, MS. And he even lost little Hawaii to trump.

Talking about the general there, Paco.

Are you thinking that Cruz heads off to the general, or that his supporters won't swing their dicks for Trump?

 

[hal2kilo]

Few people here actually addressed your point.

1) The Republican party is basically screwed anyways. There was a crack that formed in the Nixon administration (basically the GOP never fully came together as a whole when the southern Democrats joined starting in the late 1950s, but mostly throughout the 1960s and early 1970s). That crack was nearly healed under Reagan, but it didn't take. Note the loss of Bush Sr. when Perot ran and the formation of the tea party under Bush Jr. There is a full out civil war internally now.

Trump is the symptom, not the cause.

2) Trump can actually temporarily HELP the GOP by running as an independent. There is a very good likelihood that it would end up being ~45% Clinton (D), ~30% Trump (I), ~25% Cruz (R). Yes, that would lose the presidency. But, that could very likely give the GOP a near veto proof majority in the house and senate because Trump would bring in the tea party voters and Cruz would bring in the rest of the GOP. The GOP would dominate down-ticket in that election.

It would give the GOP the mandate (big house and senate gains) while Clinton would be crippled by getting far less than 50% of the vote.

True, that would only last 4 years, but that might be the time the GOP needs to fix their rift and find actual candidates that people want to vote for. Short of a miracle happening for the GOP between now and the end of the primary, Trump running as an independent might be the best outcome that the GOP can get from this election.

That's what I cant figure out if Trump actually wins the Repub nom. How will it affect the down state votes, one if he wins, and the other if he looses. The Dems really need a pile of money like the Repubs have been getting from the Koch Bros to get majorities back to the state houses. So far, I have not seen near as much effort by the Dems. Does not do the Dems any good to win the presidency (except for SCOTUS noms) and have no control of the Congress.

 

[dullard]

That's what I cant figure out if Trump actually wins the Repub nom. How will it affect the down state votes, one if he wins, and the other if he looses. The Dems really need a pile of money like the Repubs have been getting from the Koch Bros to get majorities back to the state houses. So far, I have not seen near as much effort by the Dems. Does not do the Dems any good to win the presidency (except for SCOTUS noms) and have no control of the Congress.

Barring a unexpected major event (which certainly can happen) polls in March are usually reasonably accurate for presidential elections in November. The RealClearPolitics average is now trending clearly towards a Clinton win (the latest poll was +13% for Clinton). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

So, I personally think that if it were Trump vs Clinton, then the Trump supporters would come out and much of the rest of the GOP will stay at home. In this senate election, there are 10 Democrat spots up for grabs and 24 Republican seats up for grabs (total of 34). The Democrats (plus independents that generally vote with the Democrats) have 36 seats. The Democrats need to win 14/34 = 41% of the elections to get the majority in the senate (44% if Trump wins due to the VP being the tie breaker vote).

In a Trump/Clinton scenario where Clinton wins (and possibly big if the GOP establishment voters sit it out), I think there is a good chance that the democrats will win 41% or more of the senate seats. It would be an uphill battle, but the Democrats certainly can win back the senate.

In a Cruz/Clinton scenario it is much trickier. Assuming Cruz is competitive and giving the incumbents their normal advantage, there is really only likely to be a +-3 seat swing in the senate (since there are only 3 open democrat seats and 3 open republican seats that aren't incumbents). That would leave the Republicans with about 51 to 57 senators. Clinton wouldn't likely to be able to do much at all even if she won.

The Democrats have little chance at the house due to gerrymandering though. The house is on a ~20 year cycle as the large democrat turnout in presidential years happens every other census (years that end in 0). Thus, after 2020 it is likely that democrats will gerrymander the house to favor them.

 

[FrankRamiro]

You know lopri, I used to think that (I guess I sorta still do). But with as much crap as the Reps have been throwing at Trump lately, I really am not sure if that's true. I really do wonder if they'd be more happy with a Billary win, as they know what kind of Big Gov Big Banks stooge they'll get is better than someone who is simply not beholden to them at all. I'm beginning to wonder if they're wanting to see Clinton as POTUS knowing they'll keep her idiocy at bay (sans SCOTUS appts, and them dragging their feet can be used as a negotiation tool for not too extreme SCOTUS picks) via Congress.

Trump and Bernie is what the Establishment don't want: Someone they know ahead of time they can't control and might upset their status quo.

I agree 100%, they don't want Trump or Bernie cause they say they will bring American Factories from China back to USA, that's what those governing in the last 15 years have done sent our Jobs to China, cause the Politicians that have been part of the government in the last 15 years are the owners of those factories,that they dislocated to china for cheap labor,living American workers without a job and in poverty.
That's what you guys supporters of Hilary and all the other politicians want?go ahead vote for the establishment Politicians ,and America will be part of the Third world in a few years.Remember trillions and trillions of Dollars owed to Chinese as we speak.
You Americans want the Mexicans to rule USA! cause with the speed of Mexicans illegals entering the country and duplicating themselves, the wish of the Establishment Politicians is to get all these illegals a easy path to American citizenship, soon they will take over.

 

[flexy]

I agree 100%, they don't want Trump or Bernie cause they say they will bring American Factories from China back to USA, that's what those governing in the last 15 years have done sent our Jobs to China, cause the Politicians that have been part of the government in the last 15 years are the owners of those factories,that they dislocated to china for cheap labor,living American workers without a job and in poverty.

Not being able to have Mr. Wang in Shenzhen manufacture the iPhone or not being able to have Paco assemble your car in Mexico means LESS PROFIT...and rest assured there are "powers" at work who have no interest in that ever to happen. So yes of course.

However I do not think that Trump's proposal goes far enough (not even remotely) because tax breaks wont bring back jobs, only strict regulations and penalties. It must become unattractive (if not impossible) for companies to move to Pakistan, India, China etc.

For god's sake, Trump IS STILL REPUBLICAN, the party whose agenda is foremostly for the rich so called "job creators", exactly those folks who are the same folks who decided to move away from the US in the first place.

Do you seriously think that Trump as a Republican would propose something that would mean less profit for the rich? No. He won't.

This is why all he does is offer "tax breaks" (yuppdeedoo), basically granting corporates/business a gift...rather than imposing strict regulations that would be really needed.

Money will still FLOW OUT of the US, work will still FLOW OUT of the US, and it won't "trickle back" when profit is stashed in the Cayman Islands.

 

[soundforbjt]

Apple, etc is not going to be building any factory here in the US anytime soon. Drumps's plans to bring back jobs is a pipe dream at best.

 

[Blanky]

At this point if he doesn't get the nomination it's because the republicans committed seppuku anyway, so they will be cast aside by their electorate anyway. Unless he has only a razor thin margin against Cruz come the convention, people will not tolerate the oligarchs casting aside their wishes and putting somebody else up who has markedly less popular support. It's vehemently undemocratic and Trump supporters are such because they hate this kind of thing to begin with.

 

[SP33Demon]

Talking about the general there, Paco.

Are you thinking that Cruz heads off to the general, or that his supporters won't swing their dicks for Trump?

Cruz will endorse after Sessions asks him to. Trump will unify the party eventually. Except for maybe little marco voters, they were hopeless to begin with.

 

[werepossum]

Not being able to have Mr. Wang in Shenzhen manufacture the iPhone or not being able to have Paco assemble your car in Mexico means LESS PROFIT...and rest assured there are "powers" at work who have no interest in that ever to happen. So yes of course.

However I do not think that Trump's proposal goes far enough (not even remotely) because tax breaks wont bring back jobs, only strict regulations and penalties. It must become unattractive (if not impossible) for companies to move to Pakistan, India, China etc.

For god's sake, Trump IS STILL REPUBLICAN, the party whose agenda is foremostly for the rich so called "job creators", exactly those folks who are the same folks who decided to move away from the US in the first place.

Do you seriously think that Trump as a Republican would propose something that would mean less profit for the rich? No. He won't.

This is why all he does is offer "tax breaks" (yuppdeedoo), basically granting corporates/business a gift...rather than imposing strict regulations that would be really needed.

Money will still FLOW OUT of the US, work will still FLOW OUT of the US, and it won't "trickle back" when profit is stashed in the Cayman Islands.

People feeling that government not taking someone's money is government giving them a gift is exactly why corporations began to buy politicians to make it more practical to move away from American wages, regulations and taxes.

 

[werepossum]

Cruz will endorse after Sessions asks him to. Trump will unify the party eventually. Except for maybe little marco voters, they were hopeless to begin with.

Not me. I don't particularly dislike Trump, but I don't see him as any better than Hillary, and neither is even close to being Gary Johnson.